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Email this9:23 am
January 12, 2019
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Stephen Poloz seems to think so . . .
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Canada is in a Recession? Maybe Yes ... Maybe No. I'd want to hear from others at his level, before becoming too concerned.
What say you ?
- Dean
" Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! "
1:21 pm
April 27, 2017
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Poloz says all there is to say. We can use a different definition or invent a more palatable word but all the growth numbers look bad with the exception of population growth.
Productivity and GDP per person have been trending down for a while. Unemployment trends are starting to look bad too https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/forward-guidance-our-weekly-preview/
3:20 pm
November 5, 2022
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Not everyone is impacted in the same way.
For those with lots of Savings, they could have benefited from the higher rates by making more interest income.
3:19 pm
November 18, 2017
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Depending on population growth to boost the economy is a Bad Thing. It's borrowing and expecting someone else to pay pack the debt. Meanwhile, the extra population increases competition for resources and multiplies environmental damage.
The Population Bomb is still real, still ticking.
RetirEd
7:21 pm
April 6, 2013
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We're not in a recession. Just feels like it because of the lingering effects of the bout of inflation we just went through.
About That (CBC): Why it feels like we're in a recession explains the situation.
Using per-capita GDP instead of GDP numbers is gaming optics. Like a business reporting record profits complaining that they aren't doing so well because the revenue per customer is falling and employee count is dropping.
8:30 pm
April 27, 2017
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Norman1 said
We're not in a recession. Just feels like it because of the lingering effects of the bout of inflation we just went through.About That (CBC): Why it feels like we're in a recession explains the situation.
Using per-capita GDP instead of GDP numbers is gaming optics. Like a business reporting record profits complaining that they aren't doing so well because the revenue per customer is falling and employee count is dropping.
A good video. It essentially says that everything is bad, “whatever you want to call it”.
Businesses are failing as they do in a recession. Consumers are tightening the belt because they don’t have money to spend. Unemployment jumped, like it does in a recession. “Technically” not in a recession because the total growth was zero thanks to immigration but per person we are worse off.
The video is four months old. Since then it got worse still, eg unemployment rate got higher. Insolvency rate for new businesses is highest in 4 decades. Overall business insolvency is at a level not seen since the financial crisis. Individual insolvency rate has just jumped as well. Poverty rates way up. “Technical” definition does not matter, Poloz summed it up well.
Its not about feelings. The economy is bad and people are not doing well.
On a side note, Canada is reporting record debt levels and red all over budget as opposed to “profits”.
10:04 am
September 24, 2019
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Norman1 said
We're not in a recession. Just feels like it because of the lingering effects of the bout of inflation we just went through.About That (CBC): Why it feels like we're in a recession explains the situation.
Using per-capita GDP instead of GDP numbers is gaming optics. Like a business reporting record profits complaining that they aren't doing so well because the revenue per customer is falling and employee count is dropping.
Thanks for the link Norman!
10:17 am
September 11, 2013
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RetireEd, population growth via immigration can be a very good thing. The influx of skilled Europeans in the years after WWII is a good example, great time of growth for Canada.
I don't see how we're in a recession but I only know what I see around me every day. But if GDP goes up by 3% and population by 5% that means the bigger pie has still resulted in a smaller piece for each individual. How is that gaming optics?
10:46 am
January 12, 2019
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Hmmm . . .
So who do we believe ... former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz, or a CBC reporter with No financial credentials.
Take yer pick ! 
- Dean
" Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! "
12:00 pm
April 27, 2017
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Dean said
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Hmmm . . .So who do we believe ... former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz, or a CBC reporter with No financial credentials.
Take yer pick !
Dean
Andrew Chang may not have credentials but he is quite smart which is (I admit) rare for his organization.
In this particular case we believe them both. Chang’s video is 4 months old. Things moved on. In the wrong direction. And even then he is not saying anything that contradicts Poloz.
12:56 pm
January 12, 2019
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Yes ⬆ ... a Third of a year can make Quite a difference !
And Yes again ... Andrew Chang is one of the Best reporters/presenters at the CBC. I always enjoy his 'About That' mini-docs.
Fingers crossed that the new year will bring better times for All.
- Dean
" Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! "
1:44 pm
April 6, 2013
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Dean said
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Hmmm . . .So who do we believe ... former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz, or a CBC reporter with No financial credentials.
Take yer pick !
I believe the CBC reporter, not the Financial Post reporter taking Poloz's comments out of context.
Poloz says were not even in a technical recession: “A technical one is a superficial definition that you have two quarters of negative growth in a row, and we haven’t had that, but the reason is because we’ve been swamped with new immigrants who buy the basics in life, and that boosts our consumption enough.” He know what a recession is.
Not a recession because just because prices of essentials are higher from inflation and one has less discretionary spending until people's income catch up.
Poeple have money. Landlords have no problem finding tenants who are will to pay an astonishing $2,000/month for rental apartments. That's not just $100/month more than it was a few years ago either.
Airlines are raising their fares! Air Canada recently announced no more free carry-on for economy fare tickets.
1:51 pm
April 6, 2013
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Bill said
…
I don't see how we're in a recession but I only know what I see around me every day. But if GDP goes up by 3% and population by 5% that means the bigger pie has still resulted in a smaller piece for each individual. How is that gaming optics?
Doesn't work that way.
Not everyone gets an equal slice of the GDP pie just for being in Canada. GDP going up by 3% can result in some people getting way more than 3% if they are in the right business or profession.
2:23 pm
April 27, 2017
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Norman1 said
Dean said
.
Hmmm . . .So who do we believe ... former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz, or a CBC reporter with No financial credentials.
Take yer pick !
I believe the CBC reporter, not the Financial Post reporter taking Poloz's comments out of context.
Poloz says were not even in a technical recession: “A technical one is a superficial definition that you have two quarters of negative growth in a row, and we haven’t had that, but the reason is because we’ve been swamped with new immigrants who buy the basics in life, and that boosts our consumption enough.” He know what a recession is.
Looks like everyone took it out of context except Norman. CBC reporter didn’t take comments by Poloz in any way because his video predates them by 4 months. Actual quote with the key part of the sentence included:
Speaking during a webinar on Tuesday, Poloz, now a special adviser to Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP, stated, “
I would say we’re in a recession, I wouldn’t even call it a technical one.”
2:27 pm
February 16, 2013
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Norman1 said
Poeple have money.
No, they don't. Food bank visits are up by huge percentages in Toronto. Many hungry people out there with sticker shock from grocery store prices.
3:40 pm
April 27, 2017
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MG said
Norman1 said
Poeple have money.
No, they don't. Food bank visits are up by huge percentages in Toronto. Many hungry people out there with sticker shock from grocery store prices.
Yes. Terrible. It got worse since March but the data is lagging.
Food Banks Canada says more than two million people visited food banks in March 2024, shattering Canada’s 2023 historic peak. Food bank use was 90 per cent higher than in March 2019, and nearly 30 per cent of the country’s 5,500 food banks and community organizations report running out of food.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/adv/article-food-banks-canada-calls-for-change/
Food insecurity data are only available for 2022, when 16.9% of Canadians were food insecure, up from 12.9% in 2021. Clearly situation has deteriorated since. In 2022 unemployment was 4.5%. Now its 6.8%.
3:44 pm
September 11, 2013
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Norman1, we're dealing with averages, of course there are individual points above and below the average, that's always the case, some people do better and some do worse than the average, maybe not even one person does the exact average. The fact remains that if your population goes up 5% and GDP goes up 3% then your average GDP per person amount has decreased.
Totally agree with "people have money" though, Pearson airport is jammed hour after hour, folks going all over the world, totally unfazed doing things even the 1% never used to be able to do. And my view is that food bank visits are constantly rising because they give out food for free to anyone who wants some, name me a business that wouldn't have exponential increases with that business model!
3:49 pm
January 25, 2024
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MG said
Norman1 said
Poeple have money.No, they don't. Food bank visits are up by huge percentages in Toronto. Many hungry people out there with sticker shock from grocery store prices.
Do you think that ALL 400-500,000 immigrants are well educated, with enough funds for 1 year of living in Canada (as it WAS REQUIRED a while ago)???
I bet 80% are 'refugee' or similar status taken in just to show the world how 'Canada is a great country'.
I would like to see statistics how many of these on food banks are Canadian born with decent education OR Canadian citizens with 20-30 years of living here and having jobs...
So yes - people DO HAVE MONEY! Every morning rush hour I see 90% of SUV (Lexus, MB, Tesla, etc.) going through my area. The other 9% are big brand sedans and 1% Hondas and Toyotas sedans.
4:19 pm
October 27, 2013
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The issue may be more related to the number of TFWs and International students who may avail themselves more often to food banks et al. As would bonafide refugees. The PRs are a different (economic) segment of immigration and I would not be quick to denigrate them.
The reality is our federal government was complicit with industry and post-secondary academic institutions in letting anyone who could walk and talk at the same time in the front door. No follow up, no conscience, no competence in vetting those coming in, no rigor in ensuring 'kick out the door' when visas expired. It seems few in Ottawa are tending to the business....in so many ways.
As another example, the armed forces cannot even procure sleeping bags that work in Arctic temperatures. You or I could go down to a retail store and do a better job. There-is-no-competence-in-Ottawa.
4:24 pm
April 27, 2017
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Bill said And my view is that food bank visits are constantly rising because they give out food for free to anyone who wants some, name me a business that wouldn't have exponential increases with that business model!
People can’t afford food. ‘In Ontario, more than 30 percent of children were food insecure in 2023.” Have a look at table 1. Gets worse every year.
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