Ing direct Canada being sold | Tangerine Bank | Discussion forum

Jamie said:

Any predictions on buyers....my gut tells me a credit union or maybe national bank. Don't see Rbc or td buying has the value is very small (2 billion)

I just finished reading the daily Financial Post Jamie and they think it's probably Scotiabank, National Bank or TD Canada Trust will buy ING. Here's the link I just read.

http://business.financialpost......a-analyst/

I don't think CIBC will pick up ING – they already have PC Financial and have a relatively good deposit base and good capital ratios (they and National Bank are the two Canadian banks that didn't have their credit ratings put on a 'negative outlook' for possible downgrade by the "Big Three" credit ratings agencies). As well, TD is still digesting its MBNA Canada and Chrysler Financial acquisitions, among other priorities. Plus, they just finished digesting a massive buy of most of Citi Cards Canada (excluding some "subprime" Citi regular MasterCards and the Home Depot portfolio) credit card portfolio. It's a lot to pay just to expand PC Financial, which is a joint venture with Loblaw. Remember – they only operate the day-to-day banking and wealth management aspect of PC Financial; they don't even administer or own the PC MasterCard, that is issued by PC Financial Bank and administered/serviced by MBNA Canada, now owned by TD Canada Trust, apparently.

TD Canada Trust probably won't buy ING, except to take out a competitor that ranked #1 in customer satisfaction among the midsize banks. Scotiabank and National Bank are indeed the top Canadian banks I'd put. I'd like to see Canadian Western Bank buy ING Direct Canada to expand ING's competition Canadian Direct Financial (which CWB owns), but at $2 billion, that's about what CWB is worth itself. (CWB also owns Bank West, which acquired Ubiquity Bank, a "virtual bank" to compete with Citizens Bank of Canada and owned by Prospera Credit Union, a number of years ago.) I don't know if they could finance it – or if the regulators would allow it.

Beyond that, I don't see any foreign buyers – ICICI Bank has its own troubles and ING Direct Canada doesn't fit the foreign buyers' strategies in Canada nor would it give them the scale they are seeking (in terms of market share and retail branch network). Ally Canada is one possibility, but their own application for Schedule II Chartered Bank status is being held up by OSFI and the Minister of Finance, likely over capital adequacy issues, for over two years now. Plus, are they even big enough to buy it? They have about $1.5 billion in deposits and mortgages in Canada whereas ING has $30 billion.

My money's on National Bank of Canada, followed by Scotiabank and then BMO.

Cheers,
Doug

A credit union is also a possibility, but again, are they big enough (if a bidding war emerges)? Of them, I'd say – possibly – the "Big Three" of VanCity, Coast Capital Savings (both in B.C.) or Meridian Credit Union (Ontario) would be able to take it on but it's "iffy" even then. Desjardins (Quebec) could probably do the deal, but do they want it?

Cheers,
Doug

I thought they (ING) repaid most of their debts to the Dutch government too, but I guess not. ;(

Regarding credit unions buying ING, they could buy ING and operate it as a wholly-owned subsidiary - that's within the current legislative framework. There is precedent for this - Prospera Credit Union used to own Ubiquity Bank of Canada (a Schedule I Chartered Bank), which was later merged with Bank West, which was owned by Western Financial Group and now which itself was acquired by a Quebec credit union/caisse populaire Desjardins Group) and Vancouver City Savings Credit Union (VanCity) started Citizens Bank of Canada.

Additionally, later this year, the new law allowing credit unions to incorporate nationally goes into force so, in theory, they could even effectively merge with ING and not have to operate it as a wholly-owned subsidiary anymore.

The problem is, is any one credit union's capital adequacy ratios good enough and do they have enough "financial muscle" to pass the regulators' (OSFI's) regulatory mustre? That's the question.

Cheers,
Doug

Thanks for the update, NorthernRaven!

Cheers,
Doug