2019 09 20 Rate Drop | Oaken Financial | Discussion forum

Thanks, @Stephen. I see Peter's updated it already, so that was fast.

Separately, my HISA and GIC predictions are playing out. I expect that by this time next year, or sooner, there will be no Canadian 5-year GIC rate above 2.50% and no 1-year GIC rate above 2.25%. Those will be the new "tops"; however, there may continue to be "temporary" or non-standard term promo GIC rates that meet or exceed those rates (notably, Peoples Trust's 3.00%, though that may go down to 2.75% by this time next year).

Cheers,
Doug

GICinvestor said
Is it just my imagination?

Do GIC rates usually decrease in the fall?

Are there any historical graphs of say 5 year GIC rates with an overlay of Hubert, Accelerate, Oaken, PT?

I do 5 year laddering and usually renew GICs in September, December, March, June. Should i knock out September?  

While there's nothing, insofar as I'm aware, that specific as to have a Hubert/AcceleRate/Oaken/PT overlay, the Registered Deposit Brokers Association produces what it calls GIC rate Advantage Index consisting of GIC issuers of 1-5 year GIC terms that its members issue.

What the 5-year GIC data show, there does tend to be a bottoming of GIC rates in September going back to 2010, the earliest available period (probably a rolling 10-year graph). However, rate declines of GICs within its index are not limited to September, with December, January, and some other months showing declines. There was one instance of a March decline in the index's rates, but it hasn't been for several years.

So, you could try and focus your 5-year GIC renewals to the March and June months.

Cheers,
Doug

Thanks Doug and Loonie.
I know the history is here for the FIs I use and likely you too. But perhaps the history could be for more years. I used to be real good at excel and graphs but I was hoping to find an easy solution to see the graph in question 🙂

I first got on to the 5 year laddering years ago using the information found here. Then I decided to move to quarterly maturities to spread the interest payments evenly which I almost have in place.

Do I have even amounts by quarter. NO
Will I. MAYBE, ONCE I PROGRAM EXCEL TO TELL ME.

Or.

Should I just accept the blend of 5 year interest rates and not worry about having a glass ball to predict what every 3rd month of the year historically has the best rate....and what month is the start month?
I AM THINKING YES, DON’T BE SO PICKY!

Doug said
@GICinvestor, do you mean staggering your maturities so you always having something maturing in every month or two of every year?
 

Not exactly. I have GICs that mature every quarter and a lot of them pay interest annually too. I do it for regular income and so I only do the renewal process during every quarter as well (just a preference to not have to process renewals every month). It does make a difference.

Bud said
Havin a hard time with 2.85@5yr convince me  

I hear you. But I have faith in the 5 year laddering option. But of course if I see uneven amounts I would plug the hole, which would mean I would not put into a 5 yr. I like the fairly even availability of a fifth of my funds every year. But you have to accept or appreciate the blend of 5 year interest rates.....not for everyone I guess.

Chocolates arrived today!