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Dow down nearly 900 points:read speech Chair Powell
August 26, 2022
12:43 pm
Alexandra
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Interesting speech.

August 26, 2022
1:06 pm
AltaRed
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Dow closed down 1000 (3.03%) but that is a useless index of 30 industrials. The S&P500 is much better and it is down 3.37% today. The TSX did much better, only off 1.48%. Regardless, the speech sets the tone (for now) for a determined fight on inflation.... that is, until speculation ramps up again for a future 'blink'. Investors are such optimists.......

August 26, 2022
6:50 pm
lifeonanisland
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AltaRed said
Dow closed down 1000 (3.03%) but that is a useless index of 30 industrials. The S&P500 is much better and it is down 3.37% today. The TSX did much better, only off 1.48%. Regardless, the speech sets the tone (for now) for a determined fight on inflation.... that is, until speculation ramps up again for a future 'blink'. Investors are such optimists.......  

They're like crack addicts. Addicted to low rates. Don't think they're going to get any relief anytime soon.

August 26, 2022
8:32 pm
COIN
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August 27, 2022
8:10 am
Alexandre
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I can see that bitcoin is well above zero. That tells me, people still have money to spend on unnecessary things - interest rates can go up further.

August 27, 2022
8:26 am
cgouimet
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I personally doubt the Powell speech drove this as it's been known for a long time the Fed was going to be aggressive. I think it's merely an excuse for the big boys to flip stuff around for profit-taking.

The big boys always tell us to play the long game, not react to today things and not try to time the market. That guidance, in my opinion, is merely to keep the noise from the riff-raff out of the way so they can play their timing and profit-taking games ...

CGO
August 27, 2022
12:16 pm
Dean
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.
So Cgouimet ...

Why not ignore their advice, and play the Big Boy's game ❓

    Dean sf-wink

sf-cool " Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! " sf-cool

August 27, 2022
2:10 pm
Loonie
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Anyone who buys the line about "never sell" and "never try to time the market" is likely lining the pockets of their heirs - and maybe CRA, depending - rather than getting anything for their money. It doesn't matter how much you made if it's stuck on a spreadsheet for the rest of your life.
So, go ahead, do your best to time the market or leave it all to your heirs who, in turn, will have to time the market if they are ever going to get anything out of it.
Timing may be a challenging, but necessary pursuit.

August 27, 2022
3:12 pm
canadian.100
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Loonie said
Anyone who buys the line about "never sell" and "never try to time the market" is likely lining the pockets of their heirs - and maybe CRA, depending - rather than getting anything for their money. It doesn't matter how much you made if it's stuck on a spreadsheet for the rest of your life.
So, go ahead, do your best to time the market or leave it all to your heirs who, in turn, will have to time the market if they are ever going to get anything out of it.
Timing may be a challenging, but necessary pursuit.  

Perhaps you should include all the Pension Funds who are invested VERY heavily in equities - they certainly will continue to keep buying equities periodically and at perhaps lower current values - hopefully pensioners will receive "something" if the Pension Plans buy and sell as you suggest should happen i.e. "time the market". Bear in mind, Pension Funds have a diversified portfolio - every stock is not a loser - energy stocks are doing very well these days - even coal is in big demand e.g. Germany and Europe want coal so those stocks will do well. Many investors have been smart enough to invest in energy too so they may have some real winners even if some losers e.g. hi-tech. I don't think there is any rush to sell successful energy stocks in 2022.

August 27, 2022
6:08 pm
COIN
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Buy and hold needs only one correct decision.

Buy and sell need two correct decisions.

Who is so smart as to make 2 correct decisions consistently?

August 27, 2022
6:48 pm
Bill
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"Never sell" to me meant no selling during accumulation decades, just accumulate & hold until you've got the pile you want, i.e. sell at some point in your later life when you're set. It's what I did, a few years ago, though I did re-enter to a relatively minor degree when the initial virus crash presented an obvious buy-in opportunity, couldn't help myself. So, yes, CRA got its pound of flesh when I liquidated but it's certainly not sitting on a spreadsheet for heirs.

But now it's mostly fixed-income sitting on spreadsheets, pretty much same effect as equities on spreadsheets, far as I can see.

August 28, 2022
12:51 am
mordko
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1. Powell said the right thing but its words. Mr Market overreacts to daily news.

Right now we don’t know if the latest CPI data are a blip or a new trend and inflation is being subdued. In the latter case the Fed will slow down and the markets will retrace lost ground and then some.

2. Not sure why a HISA site promotes market timing. Passive investors have done rather well for decades.

August 28, 2022
1:14 am
Loonie
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Sounds like you figured out your market timing pretty well when you sold.

There is a big difference between GICs and market investments on a spreadsheet, as I'm sure you know. One has a guaranteed value and, if you shop carefully, can be turned into cash at any time with little or no foregone interest; the value of the other is unknowable until sold.
But I would agree that the spreadsheets are very similar if you never use the money; it's all just numbers on a chart for your heirs and maybe CRA.

Each to their own, but I think people need to be aware of what they are doing. Many are putting tons of effort into money they will never get any personal benefit from, and they may even take a big hit if they follow the "never sell" line and then find they must do so at a disadvantageous time. (This happened to someone close to me - a tragedy.) Something to think about anyway.

August 28, 2022
2:00 am
RetirEd
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The perennial caution about market timing mostly applies to short-term trading for gain. There's nothing wrong with occasional big moves from sector to sector when there is obviously something that will continue to affect rates for some time... earthquakes, massive lawsuits, takeovers, medical needs, demographic shifts, wars, supply change issues, technological change (electric vehicles, film cameras, Blackberrys (sadly...), market disruptors and the like pretty much demand that one follow the signs.
RetirEd

RetirEd

August 28, 2022
6:58 am
COIN
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When it comes to equities, there is the added potential of appreciation in addition to dividends (for dividend paying equities).

On the other hand, it is highly unlikely a GIC will pay back more than its original principal.

August 28, 2022
7:37 am
mordko
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RetirEd said
The perennial caution about market timing mostly applies to short-term trading for gain. There's nothing wrong with occasional big moves from sector to sector when there is obviously something that will continue to affect rates for some time... earthquakes, massive lawsuits, takeovers, medical needs, demographic shifts, wars, supply change issues, technological change (electric vehicles, film cameras, Blackberrys (sadly...), market disruptors and the like pretty much demand that one follow the signs.
RetirEd  

The perennial caution about market timing applies to market timing, full stop.

Technological change tells us little about returns. Investors routinely flock to new technologies which end up great for consumers and as a bust for stock holders.

Court cases, earthquakes, etc would be great for market timers who know about these events well in advance of CNN and the internet. Otherwise the price impacts are already reflected in the price of stocks.

August 28, 2022
9:50 am
Dean
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Alexandre said

I can see that bitcoin is well above zero. That tells me, people still have money to spend on unnecessary things - interest rates can go up further.  

Yes, Bitcoin (BTC) is still well above Zero ... but it appears
to be heading in that general direction

.
Why risk Moolah on BTC, when you can safely earn an
annual 5.0% interest (guaranteed) on a 5Yr GIC ❓

    Dean sf-wink

sf-cool " Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! " sf-cool

August 28, 2022
10:34 am
RetirEd
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mordko: I wouldn't have hesitated to dump video-rental stocks. One often has time to react safely. Not always, but there is no point in following equities down to zero when the writing is on the wall. Again, I'm not talking about day-trading.
RetirEe

RetirEd

August 28, 2022
11:24 am
mordko
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RetirEd said
mordko: I wouldn't have hesitated to dump video-rental stocks. One often has time to react safely. Not always, but there is no point in following equities down to zero when the writing is on the wall. Again, I'm not talking about day-trading.
RetirEe  

The problem is that we never know for certain that something is going to zero until it is zero. I recall talk of Microsoft, Amazon and Apple (among others) talked about as “going to zero” companies.

August 28, 2022
11:32 am
HermanH
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Short seller who foresaw Valeant crash

Short seller Fahmi Quadir, who bet against the drugmaker formerly known as Valeant Pharmaceuticals around its peak in 2015

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/short-seller-who-foresaw-valeant-crash-now-bets-on-tesla-falling-1.1149731

After the stock crashed to about $5/share, she was asked if she would close her short-position. She said that she was still waiting for the last five dollars.

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