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Email this11:24 am
April 27, 2017
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TommyT said
I figured January would be about around a ten percent loss for the major indexes and usually the U.S. stock market tanks the day after all the money goes into the TFSA in the brokerages in Canada.
Every word is perfect here but “usually” is simply awesome.
TFSA has been around for what? 14 years? How many Jan 5th saw 10% loss? “Usual” 10% Jan 5th drop has not happened yet but any day now.
Thought astrologists leave at least some room for different interpretations.
3:48 pm
January 9, 2011
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I know today isn't yesterday, BUT - today's headline is... " Stocks stage first big rally of 2023 as hope grows that inflation will ease, Dow closes up 700 points "
Oops! 
"Keep your stick on the ice. Remember, I'm pulling for you. We're all in this together." - Red Green
5:11 am
September 7, 2018
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TommyT said
I've got a crash alert out for January 5th 2023. The major U.S. stock indexes should crash tomorrow on January the fifth.
The source of your "alert" for a stock crash was obviously wrong.
I think you should be more concerned that interest rates are about to plateau and GIC rates more likely to drop back under the 5% level and then go lower. That could happen fairly quickly once inflation figures show they are in a downward trend. Probably it is time for GIC aficionados to start to lock in current rates before the "crash" in GIC rates.
5:48 am
March 30, 2017
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canadian.100 said
The source of your "alert" for a stock crash was obviously wrong.
I think you should be more concerned that interest rates are about to plateau and GIC rates more likely to drop back under the 5% level and then go lower. That could happen fairly quickly once inflation figures show they are in a downward trend. Probably it is time for GIC aficionados to start to lock in current rates before the "crash" in GIC rates.
Some here were/are still expecting at least 6% for 5year. I hope they will turn out to be right, but more likely to be disappointed.
Timing peak in GIC is even harder than timing stock market. At least there is no term structure in stocks.
8:06 am
March 8, 2018
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My 100K RSP at Tang is matured at the end of Feb, thinking of moving it to Meridian 5.25% (1.5 year term) (vs 4.85% 1 year term with Tang). Is it worth to transfer?
I am concerned about the time gap of 1-2 months during transition (that I lost the interest) and the work that I have to follow up to make sure it gets there.
I had transferred TFSA to Meridian from Tang before (done in person) and it took only around 1 week for the fund to get there so I had the impression that it is faster transfer with online bank. Is it the case?
8:26 am
March 18, 2021
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mordko said
Every word is perfect here but “usually” is simply awesome.
TFSA has been around for what? 14 years? How many Jan 5th saw 10% loss? “Usual” 10% Jan 5th drop has not happened yet but any day now.
Thought astrologists leave at least some room for different interpretations.
Every chart pattern and variable spelt crash in January.
8:56 am
March 18, 2021
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dougjp said
I know today isn't yesterday, BUT - today's headline is... " Stocks stage first big rally of 2023 as hope grows that inflation will ease, Dow closes up 700 points "Oops!
Turns out I right and the stock market was wrong. Inflation did nothing but accelerate in January.
US inflation comes in hotter than expected at 6.4%. MoM saw the largest increase in 3 months at 0.5%
10:34 am
April 27, 2017
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TommyT said
Turns out I right and the stock market was wrong. Inflation did nothing but accelerate in January.
US inflation comes in hotter than expected at 6.4%. MoM saw the largest increase in 3 months at 0.5%
You said nothing about inflation. This is what you did say: “ I'm calling a crash in the U.S. stock market on January 5th 2023. if you day trade. I'm looking for the DOW to drop more than 1,000 points that day… I figured January would be about around a ten percent loss for the major indexes“.
We are now in February, so everyone can draw own conclusions who was right.
And just an FYI: DOW dropped 100 points today (rather than 1000) which means that people who were invested in the market are between 5 and 10% up YTD. And what tomorrow will bring, I have as much of an idea as yourself, which means none at all.
11:06 am
March 30, 2017
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TommyT said
Turns out I right and the stock market was wrong. Inflation did nothing but accelerate in January.
US inflation comes in hotter than expected at 6.4%. MoM saw the largest increase in 3 months at 0.5%
you sound like a typical stock analyst who only highlite the 1 thing u are right, and quietly ignore the 10 things that are wrong.
But wait, you are not even getting 1 thing right either... 🙂
The more you preach about your prediction, the less creditbility you are getting for just being wrong and stay wrong... unfortunately...
5:46 pm
August 10, 2018
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My 2 cents worth.
US Fed not yet finished tightening, short term rates wil continue to rise in 2023, to around 6-7%. Canada BOC will follow US Fed. Stick with short term till mid to late 2023, then lock in, and ladder where possible.
2:51 am
April 14, 2021
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Bruford said
US Fed not yet finished tightening, short term rates wil continue to rise in 2023, to around 6-7%. Canada BOC will follow US Fed. Stick with short term till mid to late 2023, then lock in, and ladder where possible.
I was of a similar mindset, but changed when I saw GIC rates dropping so drastically. I wish that I had acted a bit sooner to catch another 0.25% or so (and for longer terms.)
I am now agreeing with the folks who espoused the opinion that it doesn't matter how high either Fed or BoC raise their rates. If the banks cannot find anyone wanting funds, there is no incentive to change their GIC rates. Looks like they think they are sitting on a glut of money. I think that the BoC/Fed rates will rise a bit, but GIC rates will continue to fall.
5:05 am
March 30, 2017
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Even if BoC continues to raise to say 5%, all it does is support the 1y rate to stay high longer. 6-7% for 2y or longer is just wishful thinking and depart from reality unfortunately. The market will simply price in higher chance of rate cut down the road if O/N rate keeps going up. And as others already point out, a FI pays a higher deposit rate only if it can deploy the cash and earn a spread, not just to follow the BoC.
Net effect of O/N keep going higher is the spread btw HISA vs 1y GIC will narrow, that’s pretty much it.
And I don’t believe in the explanation GIC are lower now cuz RRSP season, and will bounce back up in Mar. This year is different.
5:10 am
April 27, 2017
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There are different scenarios with different outcomes. It would make sense to diversify and avoid putting all your eggs into one basket (either short-term cash/GICs or 5-year GICs or smth else).
8:41 am
March 18, 2021
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savemoresaveoften said
If I read u correctly, 1y is bad, 3y is the worst, wait till Mar next year to get a 5 year. So what to do with the cash and GIC maturing now ?? The bulk of HISA are earning 3% best, and begging Tang for a 5% does not work if they dont choose you to begin with.
Also where u buy that crystal ball ? If its so magically accurate, why is the person selling ?
I've been exactly right on inflation and like I said the first rate cut will be March 2024. Lock in for 5 years at the start of March 2023. If you have a lot of money Steinbach is paying presently 5.10 percent for 5 years. 5.05 over 100 thousand 5.10 over either 250 thousand or 500 thousand.
8:48 am
March 18, 2021
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savemoresaveoften said
Even if BoC continues to raise to say 5%, all it does is support the 1y rate to stay high longer. 6-7% for 2y or longer is just wishful thinking and depart from reality unfortunately. The market will simply price in higher chance of rate cut down the road if O/N rate keeps going up. And as others already point out, a FI pays a higher deposit rate only if it can deploy the cash and earn a spread, not just to follow the BoC.Net effect of O/N keep going higher is the spread btw HISA vs 1y GIC will narrow, that’s pretty much it.
And I don’t believe in the explanation GIC are lower now cuz RRSP season, and will bounce back up in Mar. This year is different.
The January CPI will blow through the roof in Canada due for release February 21st. Much higher than forecast. Heavy pressure will be on Tiff to raise the Bank of Canada rate at the March meeting. I've done all the calculations for January just like I did all the calculations for the January CPI in America.
8:58 am
March 18, 2021
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savemoresaveoften said
Some here were/are still expecting at least 6% for 5year. I hope they will turn out to be right, but more likely to be disappointed.
Timing peak in GIC is even harder than timing stock market. At least there is no term structure in stocks.
Lock in for 5 years in March 2023. First rate cut March 2024. You can't time the U.S. stock market because the bankers take the wrong side of every trade on purpose and squeeze the other side of the trade out with their vast sums of money. The stock market was easy to time before around the year 1994. Since then its just a fraud ponzi three ring circus sideshow the most overvalued in all of history..
9:04 am
March 18, 2021
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Bruford said
My 2 cents worth.
US Fed not yet finished tightening, short term rates wil continue to rise in 2023, to around 6-7%. Canada BOC will follow US Fed. Stick with short term till mid to late 2023, then lock in, and ladder where possible.
Keep a close eye on the DXY dollar index in America its already fallen about 14 percent from the peak so that will spike inflation higher in America as the dollar falls there. With our rates tied to theirs it should push up our interest rates. The lag in the dollar is about 6 to 8 months.
10:32 am
September 11, 2013
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Tommy T, you remind me of that knight in that movie that kept getting limbs hacked off yet kept issuing more challenges. Kinda uplifting in a funny way, you remain undaunted.
"the most overvalued in all of history". Would you mind sharing the calculations that made you feel the world needs that warning?
12:47 pm
March 30, 2017
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TommyT said
I've been exactly right on inflation and like I said the first rate cut will be March 2024. Lock in for 5 years at the start of March 2023. If you have a lot of money Steinbach is paying presently 5.10 percent for 5 years. 5.05 over 100 thousand 5.10 over either 250 thousand or 500 thousand.
U are exactly WRONG on when to lock in to the 5y rate. 5y rate now or next month is much lower than what it was past few months.....That is the fact and easily verified.
1:04 pm
December 12, 2021
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Bill said
"the most overvalued in all of history". Would you mind sharing the calculations that made you feel the world needs that warning?
Hi Bill, don't know about "the most overvalued in all of history" However On April 30, 2022 Warren Buffet said during his annual shareholder meeting "Wall Street turning the stock market into a gambling parlor" Wall Street makes money, one way or another, Buffett said. They don’t make money unless people do things, and they get a piece of them. They make a lot more money when people are gambling than when they are investing. Buffett bemoaned that large American companies have “became poker chips” for market speculation.
“It’s almost a mania of speculation,” Charlie Munger, Buffett’s long-time partner and Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman, chimed in.
“We have people who know nothing about stocks being advised by stock brokers who know even less,” Munger said. “It’s an incredible, crazy situation. I don’t think any wise country would want this outcome. Why would you want your country’s stock to trade on a casino?”
source CNBC
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