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Email this11:15 am
September 24, 2019
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A third of my registered and non-registered GIC's are maturing in 2023. Mostly after April. Hoping interest rates will at least be stable. Kind of scary if everything drops. 
11:23 am
October 27, 2013
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No one knows what rates will be in 2H2023 but I would guess 1-3 year GICs would continue to be strong (I would bet BoC isn't going to be dropping rates for some time) but 3-5 year GIC rates could soften. I purposely used "3" both times because that may be some kind of inflection point in the yield curve.
I will of course be proven wrong in 2H2023.
12:42 pm
March 30, 2017
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AltaRed said
No one knows what rates will be in 2H2023 but I would guess 1-3 year GICs would continue to be strong (I would bet BoC isn't going to be dropping rates for some time) but 3-5 year GIC rates could soften. I purposely used "3" both times because that may be some kind of inflection point in the yield curve.I will of course be proven wrong in 2H2023.
Instead of "3", I will say "2". Next 6 months sb safe regardless. Its really when 2H2023 comes what term to pick for the renewal, I am leaning towards the longer one waits towards end of 2023, pick the longest term that still offers a competitive rate. Its almost like saying the obvious 🙂
1:52 pm
January 12, 2019
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Alexandra said
A third of my registered and non-registered GIC's are maturing in 2023. Mostly after April. Hoping interest rates will at least be stable. Kind of scary if everything drops.
.
A wise old man once said ...
- "The future will look clearer, once you get there."
Wait an' see,
- Dean
" Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! "
2:07 pm
September 24, 2019
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Dean said
.
A wise old man once said ...
"The future will look clearer, once you get there."
Wait an' see,
Dean
Thanks Dean and others! Nice to hear from you on this. Sometimes all of your input really helps. Most of the time, I've made good and sound financial decisions
throughout the years, (real estate, stocks GIC's, work etc)....but as we get older, we (me?) sometimes hesitate longer than we used to. But you are right Dean....the closer something gets, the clearer the vision.
2:19 pm
March 15, 2019
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It seems to me that the 1-5 year yield curve right now is pretty flat. I think we are heading for a recession in 2023 so rates might or might not soften. Is there any downside to investing for 1 year and then decide longer term in 2023?
3:57 pm
October 21, 2013
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I'm not sure if older age makes for slower decisions, but in this household we have decided that this is the last year we will buy five year GICs. This is due to age.
At some point you start asking yourself what this money is for, will I ever see it again, and might I ever want access to it?
Some time ago I read somewhere that, historically, five year GICs were the better deal about 85% of the time. With rates increasingly teetering towards inversion, perhaps this is one of those 15% times.
5:40 pm
October 27, 2013
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savemoresaveoften said
Instead of "3", I will say "2". Next 6 months sb safe regardless. Its really when 2H2023 comes what term to pick for the renewal, I am leaning towards the longer one waits towards end of 2023, pick the longest term that still offers a competitive rate. Its almost like saying the obvious 🙂
It is anyone's guess where the inflection point may be. The bond yield curve is currently very inverted and that is a reflection of where Mr Market thinks we are going. Mr Market could change its mind this week though, so the bond yield curve just reflects sentiment as it exists today.
While that is not directly important for longer term GIC rates, it does reflect the mood of the marketplace and that means folks renewing (or taking out new) mortgages do not appear to be terribly interested in renewing for 'longer' fixed terms these days. Thus longer duration GIC rates will have to go down as long as that view continues to exist.
Expect another roller coast year in 2023 on the bold yield curve.
5:52 pm
September 24, 2019
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Loonie said
I'm not sure if older age makes for slower decisions, but in this household we have decided that this is the last year we will buy five year GICs. This is due to age.
At some point you start asking yourself what this money is for, will I ever see it again, and might I ever want access to it?Some time ago I read somewhere that, historically, five year GICs were the better deal about 85% of the time. With rates increasingly teetering towards inversion, perhaps this is one of those 15% times.
Of course you are right Loonie. You usually are. In the end, I guess I am actually investing for my daughter and her family, yep. Still fun though.
12:01 pm
March 30, 2017
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We are really investing for our kids and future generations at the end.
Speaking of 3 vs 2, given Tangerine never likes me and dont give me a 5% place to park some cash for now, I decided to just put a bit into a 3 year GIC at 5.15%. If Fed goes hawkish on wednesday and BoC changes its tone early next year, will then lock more in at higher rates. And a good chunk maturing the next 12 months, I am not sure which way to cheer for lol
1:11 pm
January 9, 2011
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Exactly as Loonie said, for those reasons. I made the decision a few years ago, and perhaps missed better rates for a brief time before rates generally started to rise.
So 100% of mine come due in 2023, and most of those that were GICs before renewal had terms from 3 months (briefly, at EQ) to 15 months. The decision to stay short term was not made because of some intelligence or ability to crystal ball gaze. Just age.
"Keep your stick on the ice. Remember, I'm pulling for you. We're all in this together." - Red Green
3:39 pm
March 18, 2021
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The CPI will come in on the low side tomorrow pushing down yields at the long end. Inflation will take a second leg up starting this January and last to March 2023. Lock in for 5 years in March 2023 that will be the peak of the 5 year rate. The worst possible duration of GIC would be anything that matures in 2025. The first rate cut or cut of the Fed funds rate should come in March 2024.
3:48 pm
March 18, 2021
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COIN said
It seems to me that the 1-5 year yield curve right now is pretty flat. I think we are heading for a recession in 2023 so rates might or might not soften. Is there any downside to investing for 1 year and then decide longer term in 2023?
Lock into a 5 year GIC this March. Canada should hit a recession next year even though commodity prices will do very well. Oil, gasoline and the previous metals should do well. America will likely skirt a recession in 2023. A one year GIC is probably a bad idea right now. The worst possible term is 3 years.
4:53 pm
March 30, 2017
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TommyT said
Lock into a 5 year GIC this March. Canada should hit a recession next year even though commodity prices will do very well. Oil, gasoline and the previous metals should do well. America will likely skirt a recession in 2023. A one year GIC is probably a bad idea right now. The worst possible term is 3 years.
If I read u correctly, 1y is bad, 3y is the worst, wait till Mar next year to get a 5 year. So what to do with the cash and GIC maturing now ?? The bulk of HISA are earning 3% best, and begging Tang for a 5% does not work if they dont choose you to begin with.
Also where u buy that crystal ball ? If its so magically accurate, why is the person selling ?
7:46 pm
April 14, 2021
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savemoresaveoften said
If I read u correctly, 1y is bad, 3y is the worst, wait till Mar next year to get a 5 year. So what to do with the cash and GIC maturing now ?? The bulk of HISA are earning 3% best, and begging Tang for a 5% does not work if they dont choose you to begin with.
Grab individual promos to tide you over, like the HSBC one until Jan 27, 2025. Then, you could see if any other short-term promos arise, or else settle for the Hub quarterly.
savemoresaveoften said
Also where u buy that crystal ball ? If its so magically accurate, why is the person selling ?
Not selling, but 'giving it away'. 
One reason could be that it cost the giver absolutely nothing to share the 'wealth'.
12:43 am
June 28, 2022
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I'm with you, HermanH: I'm using the HSBC 4.9% HISA until another promotion is offered. If no other attractive promotions are offered, then I'll likely switch to Hubert's quarterly GIC.
Given that Alexandra asked about what to do with maturing GICs in 2023, I will contribute that, in my opinion, it would be an abysmal time to get into stocks RIGHT NOW (December 2022). Not that you implied that you WERE interested in switching to equities, but let me see if I can share this technical analyst's (who has been amazingly correctly since I began following him in 2019) projection for the path of the S&P 500 for the next 6 months. https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH_5HZjMFROHi4fUrvAcvRPOxoJBTic4vDh3HKMs-VFeG2I2TKQKnrR7lHB3s_dmxa8VJYhCPKbs2Ds_cW1UqAyQf78FkKMZgmmZ6McoywtTSPzp-IxN-h1FbRs1EeFNpGPdbIKNhoayQDNGFEfu3OK3aDPbyfjDOSFsojakQ-oNnMihv6-g7OIjryzw/s1565/spx.png
Wow, that's a long link. Anyway, I hope that you can click on it and see it properly. If you can't see it, the projection is for the S&P 500 (currently at 3990) to drop to ~2500 around May-July 2023. My own plan is to see if the market drops that much, and then begin dollar cost averaging back into the market. If the drop doesn't come, then I'll shop around and ladder my GICs.
I hope that this gives you (or anyone else who reads this) some ideas!
5:08 am
March 30, 2017
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HermanH said
Not selling, but 'giving it away'.
One reason could be that it cost the giver absolutely nothing to share the 'wealth'.
HSBC only takes care of $100k unless one is willing to go over cdic limit. Most here have GICs significantly more than that.
My beef is to predict with pin point accuracy time and term wise for reinvestment in GIC maturity is just a gamble, no matter how valid the reasoning seems.
A ladder type maturity remains the best defensive AND offensive strategy, in any rate environment IMHO.
6:34 am
January 9, 2011
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It will be interesting indeed to follow, and see, if a "crash" like that happens in the next 6 months.
Meanwhile, this morning, (but it may not last the day, IMO):
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/12/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
"Keep your stick on the ice. Remember, I'm pulling for you. We're all in this together." - Red Green
6:40 am
March 18, 2021
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Nirvana7734 said
I'm with you, HermanH: I'm using the HSBC 4.9% HISA until another promotion is offered. If no other attractive promotions are offered, then I'll likely switch to Hubert's quarterly GIC.Given that Alexandra asked about what to do with maturing GICs in 2023, I will contribute that, in my opinion, it would be an abysmal time to get into stocks RIGHT NOW (December 2022). Not that you implied that you WERE interested in switching to equities, but let me see if I can share this technical analyst's (who has been amazingly correctly since I began following him in 2019) projection for the path of the S&P 500 for the next 6 months. https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH_5HZjMFROHi4fUrvAcvRPOxoJBTic4vDh3HKMs-VFeG2I2TKQKnrR7lHB3s_dmxa8VJYhCPKbs2Ds_cW1UqAyQf78FkKMZgmmZ6McoywtTSPzp-IxN-h1FbRs1EeFNpGPdbIKNhoayQDNGFEfu3OK3aDPbyfjDOSFsojakQ-oNnMihv6-g7OIjryzw/s1565/spx.png
Wow, that's a long link. Anyway, I hope that you can click on it and see it properly. If you can't see it, the projection is for the S&P 500 (currently at 3990) to drop to ~2500 around May-July 2023. My own plan is to see if the market drops that much, and then begin dollar cost averaging back into the market. If the drop doesn't come, then I'll shop around and ladder my GICs.
I hope that this gives you (or anyone else who reads this) some ideas!
The U.S. stock market is the most overvalued in all of history. All ponzi's end at some point in time and the U.S. stock market fraud ponzi is one of the longest running ponzi's. Unless you're a day trader or run longs and shorts in equal amounts now is one of the worst times ever to buy stocks. This January the U.S. stock market should be down double digits percentage wise with the U.S. stock market crashing on January 5th 2023 with a loss of more than 1,000 points on the DOW that day.
6:50 am
March 18, 2021
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savemoresaveoften said
If I read u correctly, 1y is bad, 3y is the worst, wait till Mar next year to get a 5 year. So what to do with the cash and GIC maturing now ?? The bulk of HISA are earning 3% best, and begging Tang for a 5% does not work if they dont choose you to begin with.
Also where u buy that crystal ball ? If its so magically accurate, why is the person selling ?
I'm calling a crash in the U.S. stock market on January 5th 2023. if you day trade. I'm looking for the DOW to drop more than 1,000 points that day.
There's Oaken paying 3.4 percent and Saven paying 3.75 percent daily interest if you're in Ontario. Saven hasn't had any good reviews saying you can't move a lot of money back and forth in the account. I have an account with them and everything is slow. It took them two weeks just to put the $25 membership fee where it's supposed to go.
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