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GIC Term: Go Short or Long?
November 20, 2023
8:22 am
Technical Analyst
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One thing you can say for sure is "wars are inflationary" so I would expect as long as (insert your country here) is funding or fighting a war you can expect rates to go up.

January 5, 2024
8:11 am
gicjunkie
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For those of you who are still on the fence about long term (5 year) GIC investments, you may miss the boat. Rates are dropping (WFCU is down to 5.02%) and more will follow quickly, IMHO. But, I must say, the short term rates still look good if that's all you can do. Happy hunting. sf-smile

January 5, 2024
11:49 am
victor6433
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January 8, 2024
8:03 am
mel78
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I am new to this particular thread...I am interested in hopping onto the topic of short term rates. Rates are dropping as gicjunkie states. Has anyone on here dealt with a Credit Union for for investments? I am concerned about going long term also.

January 8, 2024
9:00 am
lifeonanisland
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mel78 said
I am new to this particular thread...I am interested in hopping onto the topic of short term rates. Rates are dropping as gicjunkie states. Has anyone on here dealt with a Credit Union for for investments? I am concerned about going long term also.  

Yes, deal with several credit unions.

January 8, 2024
9:46 am
gicjunkie
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mel78 said
I am new to this particular thread...I am interested in hopping onto the topic of short term rates. Rates are dropping as gicjunkie states. Has anyone on here dealt with a Credit Union for for investments? I am concerned about going long term also.  

Not sure what you are asking. Many of us here have invested with credit unions either directly or through brokers. There are still some long term possibiblites available today, DUCA is one at 5.6% for 5 years through a broker. Wealth One, a chartered bank, is offering 5.3%, but many people are worried about their long term viability due to their implied ties to the Chinese government. Of course your investment would be insured up to $100,000. Achieva is a virtual, Manitoba based credit union which is still offering over 5% for 5 years. Personally, if you have money to invest long term, I wouldn't wait. All indications are that rates will drop more and soon. If you can't go long, the short term rates are still high, but you take your chances when they are up for renewal in the short run. Good luck!

January 8, 2024
11:21 am
Bill
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Wealth One's long term viability is also questioned by some due to its continual losses, as reported previously on this site.

January 10, 2024
7:50 am
gicjunkie
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Well, the broker rates for 5 year GICs have now dropped to 5.10%. Luminus is still out there at 5.55% for 5 years, but probably not for long. The tide has officailly turned.

January 10, 2024
3:35 pm
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Largest driver of inflation – WAR – and the three main pillars of government debauchery (war, taxation, government spending) that the Fed cannot control.

The G7/NATO currently has 2 wars ongoing, until that changes with the printing of hundreds of billions of dollars stops AND creditor countries like China stop selling USD and buying USD debt, there won't be an end to inflation.

Inflation is transitory the central banks said...now it's under control?

(note: I have no position in gold, silver, BTC).

January 12, 2024
3:32 pm
dougjp
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In the current circumstances, I default to the "bird in the hand" strategy in terms of interest earned. Almost all cash is in GICs instead of HISA, almost all expiring in less than 12 months and laddered through the year, so little is really needed in lower paying HISAs because if "real" cash happens to be needed, I just have to wait a few weeks to get at it.

Other pet phrases that come to mind are " make hay while the sun shines ", and
" strike while the iron is hot ". I may regret it more than others if rates drop significantly, but so far that conjecture has been a constant refrain for some time, and doesn't come to fruition.

Another phrase is, " my 2 cents worth ". sf-wink

"Keep your stick on the ice. Remember, I'm pulling for you. We're all in this together." - Red Green

January 12, 2024
5:26 pm
HermanH
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I think that inflation will remain stubbornly high. We just barely dropped below the 3% threshold and everyone was jumping for joy and expecting rate cuts. I think that inflation will actually rise past 3% in the next report. I just don't know if that will be enough to get BoC to raise rates. Probably take at least two inflationary increase reports to trigger a BoC response.

January 16, 2024
11:43 am
HermanH
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Sure enough, inflation reported as 3.4%, today.

I bet that the next report will also be over 3%. I hope that it puts enough pressure on BoC to see that holding the 5% current rate is insufficient.

January 16, 2024
11:50 am
The Rock
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HermanH said
Sure enough, inflation reported as 3.4%, today.

I bet that the next report will also be over 3%. I hope that it puts enough pressure on BoC to see that holding the 5% current rate is insufficient.  

I was also expecting it to rise. I would be surprised if we get more than two quarter point cuts this year.

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