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Bank Manager GICS
October 30, 2022
5:07 pm
hayman
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Has anyone had experience matching or bettering deals with bank manager regarding 5-10 yr GICs ie BMO, Scotia, CIBC, RB, TD?

October 30, 2022
5:22 pm
HermanH
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My experience with Imperial Service at CIBC has been bad. I tried to re-purchase some 5-yr GIC at 5% and they outright denied my request and also refused to match other bank offers. So, I pulled the whole she-bang out and left them with zero. Good confirmation on how much my 50yr+ relationship with CIBC means to them.

October 30, 2022
9:26 pm
RetirEd
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For years, the trend has been for the big banks to remove services and authority from branches and move them to the national call centres. Increasingly, the centres are using fixed policies and computer-guided offers, so there's no negotiating. Soon we may be facing machine-learning algorithms that maximize what they get from us... it's already happening in many spheres and the banks are certainly using it for loan management.

Anyone who likes getting a personal deal these days should consider what they're wishing for. Just try getting the best price from Amazon or a travel site. You're up against the equivalent of a chess-playing program that knows all your moves (from cookies and trackers).

Ally and ING attracted a lot of money back in the day. including some of mine, by promising EVERYONE the same terms on all amounts of deposit.
RetirEd

RetirEd

October 30, 2022
10:21 pm
Loonie
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Those banks are making sky-high profits without us. They don't care about getting our business or keeping it. That's the reality. Best to look elsewhere and not waste your time if the response is negative. And clear your cookies! - especially at travel sites.

October 31, 2022
4:29 am
savemoresaveoften
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Loonie said
Those banks are making sky-high profits without us. They don't care about getting our business or keeping it. That's the reality. Best to look elsewhere and not waste your time if the response is negative. And clear your cookies! - especially at travel sites.  

Sites ask you to confirm what kind of cookies you like, just spend a few secs to remove all except required one for the site to work. Don’t go lazy and click ‘accept all’

October 31, 2022
10:42 am
hayman
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Just locked in at 10 years at 5.5% with BMO on 600k couldn’t be happier!

October 31, 2022
11:13 am
HermanH
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5.5% for 10 years is somewhat extreme, for me. For that rate, I would not go past 5 years. IMO, I would not receive any additional rewards/premium for years 6-10 while I would still be locked into the GIC. I don't think that I would lose, but I don't like rewarding banks for their refusal to reward me.

October 31, 2022
1:10 pm
hayman
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I will be lending against it when the housing market crashes, 5.5% on the books helps our credit and I love Real Estate long term more then the stock market which I feel will be a hobby after it also crashes. Hate to be negative but I am
Going with Drunkenmiller in which I think the Dow will be at the same level 10 years from now.

October 31, 2022
1:14 pm
hayman
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I’m also 40 years young and am bullish on renting rather then owning for many years to come. I am paid monthly at the 5.5.

October 31, 2022
2:17 pm
Loonie
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600k @ 5.5% x 10 years is great.
Personally, however, I would want to have another $5.4million available to distribute equally among purchases over the following 9 years as well, thus averaging out the rate in a GIC / bond ladder.
It would be a shame to discover that next year's rate is 10% when you have it all locked up at 5.5%

But if 600K is the whole wad, then at least this relieves you of having to make any more GIC decisions for a long time!

Those of us who remember when interest rates climbed much higher than 10% for several years may be a bit more skeptical.

October 31, 2022
2:19 pm
savemoresaveoften
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hayman said
I’m also 40 years young and am bullish on renting rather then owning for many years to come. I am paid monthly at the 5.5.  

Your strategy will be fine as long as long time inflation average stays at 2%.
I think going forward, CB target of 2% long term inflation is aggressive and not inline with long term dynamics of the market. As interest rate normalize, so should inflation, and that would be a number bigger than 2%

October 31, 2022
2:22 pm
savemoresaveoften
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Loonie said
600k @ 5.5% x 10 years is great.
Personally, however, I would want to have another $5.4million available to distribute equally among purchases over the following 9 years as well, thus averaging out the rate in a GIC / bond ladder.
It would be a shame to discover that next year's rate is 10% when you have it all locked up at 5.5%

But if 600K is the whole wad, then at least this relieves you of having to make any more GIC decisions for a long time!

Those of us who remember when interest rates climbed much higher than 10% for several years may be a bit more skeptical.  

Your buffer of safety is huge LOL. For a 40 years old, 5.5% on $3MM is a better number, sb more than adequate to sustain even highish inflation over his life time.

October 31, 2022
6:28 pm
hayman
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Thanks for all the responses! Love hearing all your views! I see the yield curve and growth as being the big problem I have no doubt shorter term GICs ie 2 years get closer to 6%. But, I see this as more of an affordability crisis going forward with aging populations around the world and tons of taxes to go around, I would love to see single family home bungalows in a few small towns around me get boring again and buy 10 repos, I have a triplex and a primary mostly paid off so about 1.3 million in equity to tap into. I think small businesses like my gfs flower business (doing better then her as an er nurse) was also a big deciding factor, longterm outlook on Cad currency and the idea of me passing on US citizenship and renting in Jupiter FL all round this idea out to being a very safe boring bet that I love. 2750 a month coming in isn’t horrible, we gross 140k working 6 months per year with one vehicle, but may lower that to 120 and move to Florida 9 months per year via renting at 2500usd per month writing off an office. Also the 70s aren’t a fair comparison I don’t feel as the household debt was 1/3 what it is today, so I truly see this as our equivalent to 20% rates. PS I see longterm rates going down after 2 years as projected, hope we aren’t talking about deflation, as many bonds will be defaulting and I’m hoping govt doesn’t make the mistake of bailing them out

October 31, 2022
6:37 pm
hayman
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Also I didn’t want to buy registered GICs as I can’t lend against them, and BMOs max CDIC insurable having only 3 entities per account at 100k denominations for one dual account and my personal totalled 600k, which didn’t leave me with more then 140k to spare to be honest, was also kinda perfect. I will also owe 90k in taxes this year out of the 140k so I took the monthly pay out scenario. My gf has a pension of 65k we could grab early in case of a major emergency of 100k plus, we should be saving at least 20k per year living the high life between Florida and Canada. Grateful

October 31, 2022
6:43 pm
hayman
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I see the 650k equity in Real Estate as being a 50/50 portfolio between commodities (the house and land) and fixed assets (the GIC). I know the S&P kicks my ass historically but I see a 20 or more crash coming at some point so the 7% after inflation avg after capital gains could be tough to pull off. I honestly see the stock market as a hobby and not real life going forward. Nothing but hedge funds trading to other hedge funds at the end of the day wallstreet will always make money off Main Street IMO

October 31, 2022
7:03 pm
Loonie
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savemoresaveoften said

Your buffer of safety is huge LOL. For a 40 years old, 5.5% on $3MM is a better number, sb more than adequate to sustain even highish inflation over his life time.  

Maybe high but I was just trying to illustrate a point.
9yrs x 600k = 5.4 million.

October 31, 2022
7:32 pm
hayman
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@loonie I sat on cash for 6 months waiting for this opportunity, I feel there will be a major global financial catastrophe if the US continue to raise rates as that effects everyone. I feel the US will be forced to help out other central banks around the world and that we are heading for a global deflationary type event, but I could be wrong. The US is in an amazing position and I would not be surprised to see CAD lose 10% near term. PS Canada has the highest household debt of all the G7 countries how much higher do you feel Tiff can raise? Kind regards

October 31, 2022
7:35 pm
hayman
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This is copied off Google

Canadian households are easily the most indebted in the G7 and among the most in the entire OECD. In 2020—the most recent year for which data are available for all countries—household debt in Canada was equivalent to 177.3% of disposable income. By comparison, the next highest G7 country was the UK at 147.7%.Aug 17, 2022

October 31, 2022
7:41 pm
hayman
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@savemoresaveoften thanks for your comment! I think your outlook is very plausible at longterm inflation avg around 4%. What would you see as a reasonable prime rate in that scenario? I also don’t know much about what effects the yield curve besides gdp projections, are you looking at adding any longterm holdings?

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