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With Lower & Lower Interest Rates ... Whatcha Gonna Do ? :-(
October 25, 2024
12:20 pm
Dean
Valhalla Mountains, British Columbia
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Today's Food-For-Thought, from BNN . . .

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Damned if you Do ... and Damned if you Don't ! sf-confused

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! " sf-cool

October 25, 2024
1:50 pm
AltaRed
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I recall some members here were locking in 5 year GICs at 5+% for the past year or so and hopefully they continued the effort on subsequent renewals of maturing GICs on that ladder.....and didn't get seduced by the higher 1 year GIC rates in the meantime. Those rates look rather good now. All GIC term rates are likely going to be under 4% soon.

October 25, 2024
2:41 pm
Dean
Valhalla Mountains, British Columbia
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That 'Soon' part will most likely happen right after the BoC makes it's next interest rate announcement, on Dec. 11th.

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! " sf-cool

October 26, 2024
1:37 am
RetirEd
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Isn't this why we (should?) have been taking long positions on high yields? We've seen the rates dropping and been calculating the results of inverted yields to get our best outcomes.

I just took a 1-year for my new RRIF, but that gives me the best yield on what is a small, rapidly declining investment. The rest of my deposits map out my best yields.

If inflation is dropping, we'll still be doing better than during the peak inflation period last year.

RetirEd

October 26, 2024
6:00 am
mordko
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Whatcha gonna do? I am shortening durations of fixed income. Still have money in funds with ~ 6 to 7 year effective duration (ZAG, FBND) and what used to be 5 year GICs but new money is going into funds with less than 3 years’ duration (like VSC, ZST and money market). And I swapped some ZAG for VSC a couple of months ago.

Generally I am a passive investor but more active with my 30% allocation to fixed income.

January 4, 2025
6:16 am
dentgal
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I'm laddered but have some GICs maturing shortly. When rates were 5+%, I was happy to purchase GICs with zero risk. Now that rates are below 4%, is it time to put more into the market?

January 4, 2025
7:02 am
Alexandre
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What to do? HISA, GICs, TFSA for me. No investing even if rates go down to almost zero, which I hope they won't. Never did, never will.
I'd rather go to bed knowing exactly how much money I have, and wake up next day knowing that same amount money I still have.

Also, I am perhaps in better position than some other folks on that forum. I can, but haven't, applied for CPP yet. When my cash flow is in red because of declined interest income, I will.
I made a deal with Canadian government: if it drops interest rates too low, it'll be compensating me for that (at least partially) with CPP payments.
Take that, Justin! (or whoever runs the country when I apply for CPP)

January 4, 2025
8:08 am
zgic
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mordko said
Whatcha gonna do? I am shortening durations of fixed income. Still have money in funds with ~ 6 to 7 year effective duration (ZAG, FBND) and what used to be 5 year GICs but new money is going into funds with less than 3 years’ duration (like VSC, ZST and money market). And I swapped some ZAG for VSC a couple of months ago.

Generally I am a passive investor but more active with my 30% allocation to fixed income.  

Do these bonds give better returns than GICs?
I am with Stocks and currently promos.
Putting matured GICs currently into promos. I have till Feb end 5.25% and 5%.
After promos it will go into mortgage payout as those returns get better than GICs. Anyways I think mortgage payout returns are always better than GICs.
Then I guess it will be back to promos or Saven.

January 4, 2025
9:11 am
Dean
Valhalla Mountains, British Columbia
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Unlike some here, I take a bit more of a Balanced approach to investing . . .

I'm about 60% GICs & SAs (mostly GICs) ... and ~40% Stocks & ETFs (mostly High Dividend paying Blue Chips).

Yes, those stocks & ETFs have a way of going Up & Down (they're not for
the-week-of-heart), but those sweet Dividends pay you to wait for the better
times ... Ka-Ching ❗ sf-smile

'To Each, Their Own'

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! " sf-cool

January 5, 2025
2:18 pm
Kirk
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dentgal said
I'm laddered but have some GICs maturing shortly. When rates were 5+%, I was happy to purchase GICs with zero risk. Now that rates are below 4%, is it time to put more into the market?  

It looks like the market has already corrected somewhat in anticipation of Trump's highly inflationary plans. Some analysts are projecting a coming recession if he follows through on mass deportation and high tariffs which certainly makes for some nervous times for investors.

January 6, 2025
1:04 pm
smayer97
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Why would mass deportation be the cause of inflation, when the mass importation did not cause any deflation. And it did not cause a boom in the economy either, so why would it cause a recession? Rather, there has been the highest inflation period in decades. This is all politicking, seemingly just to disparage ...

As for tariffs, that may be a different matter.

January 6, 2025
1:12 pm
HermanH
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smayer97 said
Why would mass deportation be the cause of inflation, when the mass importation did not cause any deflation.

Mass (USA) deportation would be equivalent to the mass Canadian immigration, that has now been cut back.

Increased numbers crossing the border would increase demand on services, housing, and spending to support them. There is a recent asylum seeker waiting in Whistler, BC, to evade his January 6th judicial sentence. He expects incoming President Trump to grant him a pardon. However, he can wait up to four years for his immigration asylum hearing, all at taxpayer expense. Now, multiply that for the millions of illegal US immigrants who might attempt the same escape, if they want to try and wait for the next presidential change.

January 6, 2025
1:18 pm
COIN
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Alexandre said
I can, but haven't, applied for CPP yet.   

How long are you going to wait to get your CPP? For example, if you wait 5 years that will mean you lost 60 months of CPP income (plus re-investment income) forever. That could be $60,000 if you could have been getting $1,000 a month.

January 6, 2025
1:29 pm
Norman1
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You'll be receiving 0.7% more each month you delay taking CPP. Delaying 5 years to age 70 will result in 42% higher payouts. You'll recover the lost 60 months and more after 10 years.

In those 5 years, one can drain more of one's RRSP and RRIF accounts without hitting OAS clawback.

The challenge is that one needs to survive another 10 years to age 80.

January 6, 2025
2:31 pm
AltaRed
BC Interior
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When the discount/premium was only ~0.4% per month (5% per year) there was not as much incentive to delay CPP beyond age 65, and there was some incentive to actually take it early IF one could be confident on getting more than 5% CAGR on re-investing CPP monthly payments, and/or had doubts on one's longevity.

With the change in discount factors, it is harder to beat a guaranteed 7% CAGR on CPP, and if one does as Norman suggests, accelerating drawdown of RRIF or RRSP funds in the interim, it becomes almost a 'no brainer' to delay, longevity risk notwithstanding.

As always, there are other things at play as well, such as drop out years, etc, etc.

January 7, 2025
5:00 am
Alexandre
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Norman1 said
You'll be receiving 0.7% more each month you delay taking CPP. Delaying 5 years to age 70 will result in 42% higher payouts. You'll recover the lost 60 months and more after 10 years.

The challenge is that one needs to survive another 10 years to age 80.  

Thanks, Norman1. That is exactly my plan: to delay CPP to age of 70.

The only reason for me to take CPP sooner than that would be if my cash flow is in the red for sustained period of time. If/when it happens, I have minimum net worth set for myself (primary residence not included) that I will not be going below.

In my financial planning I estimate my life expectancy to be approximately 90 years, based on my family history.
Even if I die sooner, the loss of income from not taking CPP earlier would not bother me, as long at it is an income I didn't need when I were alive.

January 7, 2025
5:58 am
COIN
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Question: Does the CPP go to your surviving spouse (or SO) if you pass prematurely? (Hopefully, you don't pass prematurely.)

January 7, 2025
6:08 am
AltaRed
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COIN said
Question: Does the CPP go to your surviving spouse (or SO) if you pass prematurely? (Hopefully, you don't pass prematurely.)  

See https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/publicpensions/cpp/cpp-survivor-pension.html for a description. A surviving spouse may receive some of the deceased's CPP benefit subject to some limitations (cap at one full CPP entitlement)

January 7, 2025
8:45 am
Bill
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My approach would be grab government money as soon as it's available, save your own pile as much as possible, given that an intact Canada as presently constituted is hardly assured in the future.

January 7, 2025
9:04 am
Norman1
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AltaRed said

See https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/publicpensions/cpp/cpp-survivor-pension.html for a description. A surviving spouse may receive some of the deceased's CPP benefit subject to some limitations (cap at one full CPP entitlement)

The short answer is no.

Instead, survivor will qualify for a survivor pension that could be as much as 60% of the deceased's CPP pension. However, because of the cap, survivor could end up with little survivor penson if survivor is already receiving close to the maximum CPP from their own CPP pension.

CPP pension doesn't work like a joint life annuity that would continue to pay the same amount to the survivor after one of the annuitants dies.

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