Why do you live frugally? | Page 3 | General financial discussion | Discussion forum

JustMe2016 said
My dear Max, a better question to ask would be; why do you feel the need to justify the way you live? As clearly, this is what you are doing by asking why are you frugal? Obviously, the answer to your true question is easy to reply to. You feel guilty about your chosen lifestyle. Maybe acquaintances of yours have made remarks or innuendoes?

It is never easy to walk your own path. Not to be a sheep and to not follow the herd around you. But you shouldn't feel the need to justify your lifestyle. You will definitely be happier if you can come to peace with the decisions you made. After all, first and foremost, you are living this life for your own self. It doesn't prevent you to be extremely concerned about others, but it doesn't change the fact that this is your life, you have your lessons to learn, just like your wife and children have their own lessons to learn.

Now to answer the question you were not really asking; true and long-lasting happiness comes from within, not from without. Only fools believe that money brings happiness. Money is both a friend and an enemy.

I don't like labels, I know that they are extremely destructive and this in spite of the fact we use millions of them every single day. So I will not use the word frugal, or thrifty. I will simply say that I find little comfort in material things. After all, love is all there is to have.

You can believe me or not, it is all fine. But in regards to the environment and this planet, here's how things will unfold. First of all, in regards to the environment, it is way too late. The train has left the station more than 100 years ago. Moreover, you can't logically reconcile a materialistic society with the environment.

The bottom line is the planet will survive, but the people on it, won't. Now there is nothing to be overly concerned about. In some hundreds, or thousands of years, there won't be a single human being on this planet, yes, all will be 'dead'. But after a long period of rest, a new race will start. Believe it or not, but it has happened before and will happen again.

Things get a lot easier when people stop believing in lies. This current life of yours is just one of the hundreds, if not thousands of incarnations your soul will have. As Pierre Teilhard de Chardin once wrote, (I paraphrase); we are not physical beings currently having a spiritual experience, but spiritual beings currently having a physical experience.

The bottom line is you are responsible for all your thoughts, words and actions. You are here to learn, to grow. Life, in the end, is nothing more than a school. Whatever you screw up in this life, you will be provided with an infinite number of opportunities until you do it right in future incarnations. Nevertheless, it is highly desirable to do things right as soon as possible since going thru the birth process is not the most pleasant and easy experience. Never do harm to another as anything you give will eventually come back to you. Such is the Law of Cause and Effect.

And in closing, let me tell you a bit more about me; I don't consume caffeine or alcohol. I don't eat meat, fish or crustaceans and I'm not religious. In fact, it baffles me that people need to put Jesus, God, Allah and Muhammad in a box called religion.

Hope it helps.  

Don't worry, I don't need to justify myself. My questions was genuine and legitimate because I wanted really to know what were the reasosn of other being frugal since I'm the only one in my collegues doing so and I was wondering if any other person with unlimited ressources out there had made the chose to live frugally for any other reason than environment.

I used to think exactly like you did about the end of the human race existence because I read so many books on astrophysics, pretty much all of Hubert Reeves and Stephen Hawkings books. Seems unevitable that our sun will become a giant red in 4.5 billions years and the Earth will of course being burnt and all life sweaped from the Earth.

The only thing that made me change my mind totally was the presence of exceptionnally talented, creative and genius human beings out there. Elon Musk is probably the human which will change the destiny of the human race for the millenia to come. http://online.liebertpub.com/d......29009.emu

He pushed other manufacturers to transition to sustainable transport by pushing them to the edge with Tesla, he created reusable rockets from scratch with SpaceX and created the biggest power utility in USA with SolarCity. All that with his funding from selling X.com and paypal.

Sometime money is meant to change the world in a positive way.
You're right that the humans on this planet will not survive. However, selective evolution won't have to start again from scratch.

COMMENTARY
Making Humans a Multi-Planetary Species
Elon Musk
Chief Executive Officer
SpaceX
Hawthorne, California.
By talking about the SpaceX Mars architecture, I want
to make Mars seem possible—make it seem as though
it is something that we can do in our lifetime. There
really is a way that anyone could go if they wanted to.
WHY GO ANYWHERE?
I think there are really two fundamental paths. History is
going to bifurcate along two directions. One path is we stay on
Earth forever, and then there will be some eventual extinction
event. I do not have an immediate doomsday prophecy, but
eventually, history suggests, there will be some doomsday event.
The alternative is to become a space-bearing civilization
and a multi-planetary species, which I hope you would agree
is the right way to go.
So how do we figure out how to take you to Mars and create
a self-sustaining city—a city that is not merely an outpost but
which can become a planet in its own right, allowing us to
become a truly multi-planetary species (see Fig. 1)?
WHY MARS?
Sometimes people wonder, ‘‘Well, what about other places
in the solar system? Why Mars?’’ Our options for becoming a
multi-planetary species within our solar system are limited.
We have, in terms of nearby options, Venus, but Venus is a
high-pressure—super-high-pressure—hot acid bath, so that
would be a tricky one. Venus is not at all like the goddess. So,
it would be really difficult to make things work on Venus.
Then, there is Mercury, but that is way too close to the sun.
We could potentially go onto one of the moons of Jupiter or
Saturn, but those are quite far out, much further from the sun,
and much harder to get to.
It really only leaves us with one option if we want to become
a multi-planetary civilization, and that is Mars. We could
conceivably go to our moon, and I actually have nothing
against going to the moon, but I think it is challenging to
become multi-planetary on the moon because it is much
smaller than a planet. It does not have any atmosphere. It is
not as resource-rich as Mars. It has got a 28-day day, whereas
the Mars day is 24.5 hours. In general, Mars is far better-suited
ultimately to scale up to be a self-sustaining civilization.
To give some comparison between the two planets, they are
remarkably close in many ways (Table 1). In fact, we now
believe that early Mars was a lot like Earth. In effect, if we
could warm Mars up, we would once again have a thick atmosphere
and liquid oceans.
Mars is about half as far again from the sun as Earth is, so it
still has decent sunlight. It is a little cold, but we can warm it
up. It has a very helpful atmosphere, which, being primarily
CO2 with some nitrogen and argon and a few other trace elements,
means that we can grow plants on Mars just by
compressing the atmosphere.
It would be quite fun to be on Mars because you would have
gravity that is about 37% of that of Earth, so you would be
able to lift heavy things and bound around. Furthermore, the
day is remarkably close to that of Earth. We just need to
change the populations because currently we have seven
billion people on Earth and none on Mars.
FROM EARLY EXPLORATION TO A
SELF-SUSTAINING CITY ON MARS
There has been a lot of great work by NASA and other
organizations in the early exploration of Mars and understanding
what Mars is like. Where could we land? What is the
composition of the atmosphere? Where is there water or ice?
We need to go from these early exploration missions to actually
building a city.
The issue that we have today is that if you look at a Venn
diagram, there is no intersection of sets—of people who want
to go and those who can afford to go (Fig. 2). In fact, right
now, you cannot go to Mars for infinite money.
Using traditional methods, taking an Apollo-style approach,
an optimistic cost would be about $10 billion per
person. Taking the Apollo program as an example, the cost
estimates are somewhere between $100 and $200 billion in
This paper is a summary of Elon Musk’s presentation at the 67th International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara, Mexico, September 26–30, 2016. In February 2017,
SpaceX announced it will launch a crewed mission beyond the moon for two private customers in late 2018.
Used with permission from SpaceX.
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current-year dollars, and we sent 12 people to the surface of
the moon, which was an incredible thing—probably one of the
greatest achievements of humanity.
However, that is a steep price to pay for a ticket. That is why
these circles barely touch (Fig. 3). You cannot create a selfsustaining
civilization if the ticket price is $10 billion per
person. What we need to do is to move those circles together
(Fig. 4). If we can get the cost of moving to Mars to be roughly
equivalent to a median house price in the United States, which
is around $200,000, then I think the probability of establishing
a self-sustaining civilization is very high. I think it would
almost certainly occur.
Not everyone would want to go. In fact, probably a relatively
small number of people from Earth would want to go,
but enough would want to go who could afford it for it to
happen. People could also get sponsorship. It gets to the point
where almost anyone, if they saved up and this was their goal,
Fig. 1. Artist’s rendition of a Martian colonist.
Table 1. Characteristics of Earth and Mars
EARTH MARS
DIAMETER 12,756 km / 7,926 mi 6,792 km / 4,220 mi
AVERAGE DISTANCE
FROM SUN
150,000,000 km /
93,000,000 mi
229,000,000 km /
142,000,000 mi
TEMPERATURE
RANGE
-88C TO 58C /
-126F TO 138F
-140C TO 30C /
-285F TO 88F
ATMOSPHERIC
COMPOSITION
78% N2, 21% O2,
1% OTHER
96% CO2, < 2% Ar,
<2% N2, < 1% OTHER
FORCE OF GRAVITY
(WEIGHT)
100 lbs ON EARTH 38 lbs ON MARS (62.5%
LESS GRAVITY)
DAY LENGTH 24 hrs 24 hrs 40 min
LAND MASS 148.9 MILLION km2 144.8 MILLION km2
(97% OF EARTH)
PEOPLE 7 BILLION 0
COST OF TRIP TO MARS
=
INFINITE MONEY
WANT TO GO CAN AFFORD TO GO
NOW
Fig. 2. Venn diagram of people who want to go to Mars versus
those who can afford to go now.
COST OF TRIP TO MARS
=
$10 BILLION / PERSON
WANT TO GO CAN AFFORD TO GO
USING TRADITIONAL METHODS
Fig. 3. Venn diagram of people who want to go to Mars versus
those who can afford to go using traditional methods.
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could buy a ticket and move to Mars—and given that Mars
would have a labor shortage for a long time, jobs would not be
in short supply.
IMPROVING COST PER TON TO MARS
BY FIVE MILLION PERCENT
It is a bit tricky because we have to figure out how to improve
the cost of trips to Mars by five million percent. This
translates to an improvement of approximately four-and-ahalf
orders of magnitude. This is not easy. It sounds virtually
impossible, but there are ways to do it.
These are the key elements that are needed in order to
achieve the four-and-a-half orders of magnitude improvement.
Most of the improvement would come from full reusability—somewhere
between two and two-and-a-half orders
of magnitude. The other two orders of magnitude would come
from refilling in orbit, propellant production on Mars, and
choosing the right propellant.
Full reusability
To make Mars trips possible on a large enough scale to
create a self-sustaining city, full reusability is essential. Full
reusability is really the super-hard one. It is very difficult to
achieve reusability even for an orbital system, and that
challenge becomes substantially greater for a system that has
to go to another planet.
You could use any form of transport as an example of the
difference between reusability and expendability in aircraft. A
car, bicycle, horse, if they were single-use—almost no one
would use them; it would be too expensive. However, with
frequent flights, you can take an aircraft that costs $90
million and buy a ticket on Southwest right now from Los
Angeles to Vegas for $43, including taxes. If it were single
use, it would cost $500,000 per flight. Right there, you can
see an improvement of four orders of magnitude.
Now, this is harder—reusability does not apply quite as much
to Mars because the number of times that you can reuse the
spaceship pod of the system is less often because the Earth–
Mars rendezvous only occurs every 26 months. Therefore, you
get to use the spaceship part approximately every 2 years.
Refilling in orbit
You would get to use the booster and the tanker frequently.
Therefore, it makes sense to load the spaceship into orbit with
essentially tanks dry. If it has really big tanks that you use the
booster and tanker to refill once in orbit, you can maximize
the payload of the spaceship, so when it goes to Mars, you
have a very large payload capability.
Hence, refilling in orbit is one of the essential elements of
this (Table 2). Without refilling in orbit, you would have
roughly a half order of magnitude impact on the cost. What
that means is that each order of magnitude is a factor of 10.
Therefore, not refilling in orbit would mean roughly a 500%
increase in the cost per ticket.
It also allows us to build a smaller vehicle and lower the
development cost, although this is still quite big. However, it
would be much harder to build something that is 5–10 times
the size.
COST OF TRIP TO MARS
=
MEDIAN COST OF A HOUSE IN THE UNITED STATES
WANT TO GO CAN AFFORD TO GO
WHAT’S NEEDED
Fig. 4. Estimated price per ticket where there is overlap in a Venn
diagram of people who want to go to Mars versus those who can
afford to go.
Table 2. Benefits of Refilling in Orbit
Not refilling in orbit would require a 3-stage vehicle at 5–10x the size and cost
Spreading the required lift capacity across multiple launches substantially reduces
development costs and compresses schedule
Combined with reusability, refilling makes performance shortfalls an incremental
rather than exponential cost increase
Table 3. Benefits of Propellant Production on Mars
Allows reusability of the ship and enables people to return to Earth easily
Leverages resources readily available on Mars
Bringing return propellant requires approximately 5 times as much mass
departing Earth
MUSK
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Furthermore, it reduces the sensitivity of the performance
characteristics of the booster rocket and tanker. So, if there is a
shortfall in the performance of any of the elements, you can
make up for it by having one or two extra refilling trips to the
spaceship. This is very important for reducing the susceptibility
of the system to a performance shortfall.
Propellant production on Mars
Producing propellant on Mars is obviously also very important
(Table 3). Again, if we did not do this, it would have at
least a half order of magnitude increase in the cost of a trip. It
would be pretty absurd to try to build a city on Mars if your
spaceships just stayed on Mars and did not go back to Earth.
You would have a massive graveyard of ships; you have to do
something with them.
It would not really make sense to leave your spaceships on
Mars; you would want to build a propellant plant on Mars and
send the ships back. Mars happens to work out well for that
because it has a CO2 atmosphere, it has water-ice in the soil,
and with H2O and CO2, you can produce methane (CH4) and
oxygen (O2).
Right propellant
Picking the right propellant is also important. There are
three main choices, and they each have their merits (Table 4).
First, there is kerosene, or rocket propellant-grade kerosene,
essentially a highly refined form of jet fuel. It helps keep the
vehicle size small, but because it is a very specialized form
of jet fuel, it is quite expensive. Its reusability potential
is lower. It would be very difficult to make this on Mars
because there is no oil. Propellant transfer is pretty good but
not great.
Hydrogen, although it has a high specific impulse, is very
expensive, and it is incredibly difficult to keep from boiling
off because liquid hydrogen is very close to absolute zero as a
liquid. Therefore, the installation required is tremendous, and
the energy cost on Mars of producing and storing hydrogen
would be very high.
Therefore, when we looked at the overall system optimization,
it was clear that methane was the clear winner.
Methane would require from 50% to 60% of the energy on
Mars to refill propellant using the propellant depot, and the
technical challenges are a lot easier. We therefore think
methane is better almost across the board.
We started off initially thinking that hydrogen would
make sense, but ultimately came to the conclusion that the
best way to optimize the cost-per-unit mass to Mars and back
is to use an all-methane system—or technically, deep-cryo
methalox.
Whatever system is designed, whether by SpaceX or
someone else, these are the four features that need to be addressed
in order for the system really to achieve a low cost per
ton to the surface of Mars.
SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE
Figure 5 describes the overall system (for a full simulation,
see http://www.spacex.com/mars). The rocket booster and the
spaceship take off and launch the spaceship into orbit. The
rocket booster then comes back quite quickly, within about 20
minutes. So, it can actually launch the tanker version of the
spacecraft, which is essentially the same as the spaceship but
filling up the unpressurized and pressurized cargo areas with
propellant tanks. This also helps lower the development cost,
which obviously will not be small.
Then, the propellant tanker goes up anywhere from three to
five times to fill the tanks of the spaceship in orbit. Once the
tanks are full, the cargo has been transferred, and we reach the
Mars rendezvous timing, which is roughly every 26 months,
that is when the ship would depart.
Over time, there were would be many spaceships. You
would ultimately have upwards of 1,000 or more spaceships
waiting in orbit. Hence, the Mars Colonial fleet would depart
en masse.
It makes sense to load the spaceships into orbit because you
have got 2 years to do so, and then you can make frequent use
of the booster and the tanker to get really heavy reuse out of
those. With the spaceship, you get less reuse because you have
to consider how long it is going to last—maybe 30 years, which
might be perhaps 12–15 flights of the spaceship at most.
Table 4. Comparison of Kerosene, Hydrogen/Oxygen,
and Deep-Cryo Methalox Propellants
C12H22.4 / O2
KEROSENE
H2 / O2
HYDROGEN/
OXYGEN
CH4 / O2
DEEP-CRYO
METHALOX
VEHICLE SIZE
COST OF PROP
REUSABILITY
MARS PROPELLANT
PRODUCTION
PROPELLANT
TRANSFER
GOOD
OK
BAD
VERY BAD
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Therefore, you really want to maximize the cargo of the
spaceship and reuse the booster and the tanker as much as
possible. Hence, the ship goes to Mars, gets replenished, and
then returns to Earth.
This ship will be relatively small compared with the Mars
interplanetary ships of the future. However, it needs to fit 100
people or thereabouts in the pressurized section, carry the
luggage and all of the unpressurized cargo to build propellant
plants, and to build everything from iron foundries to pizza
joints to you name it—we need to carry a lot of cargo.
The threshold for a self-sustaining city on Mars or a civilization
would be a million people. If you can only go every 2
years and if you have 100 people per ship, that is 10,000 trips.
Therefore, at least 100 people per trip is the right order of
magnitude, and we may end up expanding the crew section
and ultimately taking more like 200 or more people per flight
in order to reduce the cost per person.
However, 10,000 flights is a lot of flights, so ultimately
you would really want in the order of 1,000 ships. It would
take a while to build up to 1,000 ships. How long it would
take to reach that million-person threshold, from the point
at which the first ship goes to Mars would probably be somewhere
between 20 and 50 total Mars rendezvous—so it would
take 40–100 years to achieve a fully self-sustaining civilization
on Mars.
VEHICLE DESIGN AND PERFORMANCE
Figure 6 is a cross-section of the ship. In some ways, it is not
that complicated. It is made primarily of an advanced carbon
fiber. The carbon-fiber part is tricky when dealing with deep
cryogens and trying to achieve both liquid and gas impermeability
and not have gaps occur due to cracking or pressurization
that would make the carbon fiber leaky. Hence,
it is a fairly significant technical challenge to make deeply
cryogenic tanks out of carbon fiber. It is only recently that
carbon-fiber technology has reached the point where we can
do this without having to create a liner on the inside of the
tanks, which would add mass and complexity.
This is particularly tricky for the pressurization of the hot
gases. This is likely to be autogenously pressurized, which means
that we gasify the fuel and the oxygen through heat exchanges
in the engine and use that to pressurize the tanks. So, we gasify
the methane and use that to pressurize the fuel tank, and we
gasify the oxygen and use that to pressurize the oxygen tank.
Fig. 5. System architecture. Targeted reuse per vehicle: 1,000 uses per booster, 100 per tanker, 12 per ship.
Fig. 6. Cross-section of the ship. Carbon fiber primary structure;
densified CH4/O2 propellant; autogenous pressurization.
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This is a much simpler system than what we have with Falcon
where we use helium for pressurization and nitrogen for gas
thrusters. In this case, we would autogenously pressurize and
then use gaseous methane and oxygen for the control thrusters.
Hence, you really only need two ingredients for this, as opposed
to four in the case of Falcon 9, or five if you consider the
ignition liquid. In this case, we would use spark ignition.
Figure 7 gives you a sense of vehicles by performance,
current and historic. For expendable mode, the vehicle that we
were proposing would do about 550 tons and about 300 tons
in reusable mode. That compares to the Saturn V max capability
of 135 tons.
Figure 8 gives a better sense of things. The dark gray bars
show the performance of the vehicle, the payload to orbit of
the vehicle. What it represents is the size efficiency of the
vehicle. With most rockets, including ours, that are currently
flying, the performance bar is only a small percentage of the
actual size of the rocket.
However, with the interplanetary system, which will initially
be used for Mars, we believe we have improved the design
performance massively. It is the first time a rocket performance
bar will actually exceed the physical size of the rocket.
Figure 9 gives you a more direct comparison. The thrust level
is enormous. We are talking about a lift-off thrust of 13,000
tons, so it will be quite tectonic when it takes off. However, it
does fit on Pad 39A, which NASA has been kind enough to allow
us to use because they oversized the pad in doing Saturn V. As a
result, we can use a much larger vehicle on that same launchpad.
Fig. 7. Current and historic vehicles by performance.
Fig. 8. Payload to orbit of current and historic vehicles.
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In the future, we expect to add additional launch locations,
probably adding one on the south coast of Texas, but this gives
you a sense of the relative capability.
However, these vehicles have very different purposes. This
is really intended to carry huge numbers of people, ultimately
millions of tons of cargo to Mars. Therefore, you really need
something quite large in order to do that.
RAPTOR ENGINE
We started the development with what are probably the
two most difficult key elements of the design of the interplanetary
spaceship, the engine and rocket booster. The
Raptor engine is going to be the highest chamber pressure
engine of any kind ever built, and probably the highest
thrust-to-weight (Fig. 10).
Fig. 9. Comparison of Mars vehicle and Saturn V.
Cycle
Oxidizer
Fuel
Chamber Pressure
Throttle Capability
Full-flow staged combustion
Subcooled liquid oxygen
Subcooled liquid methane
300 bar
20% to 100% thrust
Sea-Level Nozzle
Expansion Ratio: 40
Thrust (SL): 3,050 kN
Isp (SL): 334 s
Vacuum Nozzle
Expansion Ratio: 200
Thrust: 3,500 kN
Isp: 382 s
Fig. 10. Characteristics of the Raptor engine.
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It is a full-flow staged combustion engine, which maximizes
the theoretical momentum that you can get out of a
given source fuel and oxidizer. We subcool the oxygen and
methane to densify it. Compared with when used close to
their boiling points in most rockets, in our case, we load the
propellants close to their freezing point. That can result in a
density improvement of around 10%–12%, which makes an
enormous difference in the actual result of the rocket. It gets
rid of any cavitation risk for the turbo pumps, and it makes it
easier to feed a high-pressure turbo pump if you have very
cold propellant.
One of the keys here, though, is the vacuum version of the
Raptor having a 382-second ISP. This is critical to the whole
Mars mission and we are confident we can get to that number
or at least within a few seconds of that number, ultimately
maybe even exceeding it slightly.
ROCKET BOOSTER
In many ways, the rocket booster is really a scaled-up
version of the Falcon 9 booster (Fig. 11). There are a lot of
similarities, such as the grid fins and clustering a lot of engines
at the base. The big differences are that the primary structure is
an advanced form of carbon fiber as opposed to aluminum
lithium, we use autogenous pressurization, and we get rid of
the helium and the nitrogen.
Each rocket booster uses 42 Raptor engines (Fig. 12). It is a
lot of engines, but with Falcon Heavy, which should launch
early next year, there are 27 engines on the base. Therefore, we
have considerable experience with a large number of engines.
It also gives us redundancy so that if some of the engines fail,
you can still continue the mission and everything will be fine.
However, the main job of the booster is to accelerate the
spaceship to around 8,500 km/h. For those who are less familiar
with orbital dynamics, it is all about velocity and not
about height.
In the case of other planets, though, which have a gravity
well that is not as deep, such as Mars, the moons of Jupiter,
conceivably one day maybe even Venus—well, Venus will be a
little trickier—but for most of the solar system, you only need
the spaceship. You do not need the booster if you have a lower
gravity well. Therefore, no booster is needed on the moon or
Mars or any of the moons of Jupiter or Pluto. The booster is
just there for heavy gravity wells.
We have also been able to optimize the propellant needed
for boost back and landing to get it down to about 7% of the
lift-off propellant load. With some optimization, maybe we
can get it down to about 6%.
We are also now getting quite comfortable with the accuracy
of the landing. If you have been watching the Falcon 9
landings, you will see that they are getting increasingly closer
to the bull’s eye. In particular, with the addition of maneuvering
thrusters, we think we can actually put the booster right
back on the launch stand. Then, those fins at the base are
essentially centering features to take out any minor position
mismatch at the launch site.
So, that is what it looks like at the base. We think we only
need to gimbal or steer the center cluster of engines. There
are seven engines in the center cluster. Those would be the
Engine configuration
Outer ring: 21
Inner ring: 14
Center cluster: 7
Outer engines fixed in place
Only center cluster gimbals
Fig. 12. Configuration of the Raptor engines within the rocket
booster.
Length 77.5 m
Diameter 12 m
Dry Mass 275 t
Propellant Mass 6,700 t
Raptor Engines 42
Sea Level Thrust 128 MN
Vacuum Thrust 138 MN
Booster accelerates ship to staging velocity,
traveling 8,650 km/h
(5,375 mph) at separation
Booster returns to landing site, using 7%
of total booster prop load
for boostback burn and landing
Grid fins guide rocket back through
atmosphere to precision landing
Fig. 11. Characteristics of the rocket booster.
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ones that move for steering the rocket, and the other ones
would be fixed in position. We can max out the number of
engines because we do not have to leave any room for
gimbaling or moving the engines. This is all designed so
that you could actually lose multiple engines, even at liftoff
or anywhere in flight, and still continue the mission
safely.
INTERPLANETARY SPACESHIP
For the spaceship itself, in the top, we have the pressurized
compartment. Then, beneath that is where we would have the
unpressurized cargo, which would be really flat-packed—a very
dense format. Below that is the liquid oxygen tank (Fig. 13).
The liquid oxygen tank is probably the hardest piece of
this whole vehicle because it must handle propellant at the
coldest level and the tanks themselves actually form the
airframe. The airframe structure and the tank structure are
combined, as is the case in all modern rockets. In aircraft,
for example, the wing is really a fuel tank in the shape of
a wing.
The oxygen tank has to take the thrust loads of ascent and
the loads of reentry, and then it has to be impermeable to gaseous
oxygen, which is tricky, and nonreactive to gaseous oxygen.
Therefore, that is the most difficult piece of the spaceship
itself, which is also why we started on that element.
Below the oxygen tank is the fuel tank, and then the engines
are mounted directly to the thrust cone on the base.
There are six of the high-efficiency vacuum engines around
the perimeter, and those do not gimbal. There are three of the
sea-level versions of the engine, which do gimbal and provide
the steering, although we can do some amount of steering
if you are in space with differential thrust on the outside
engines.
The net effect is a cargo to Mars of up to 450 tons, depending
upon how many refills you do with the tanker. The
goal is at least 100 passengers per ship, although ultimately,
we will probably see that number grow to 200 or more.
Depending upon which Earth–Mars rendezvous you are
aiming for, the trip time at 6 km/s departure velocity can be as
low as 80 days (Fig. 14).
Over time, we would improve that, and, eventually, I suspect
that you would see Mars transit times of as little as
30 days in the more distant future. It is fairly manageable,
considering the trips that people used to do in the old days
where sailing voyages would take 6 months or more.
On arrival, the heat-shield technology is extremely important
(Fig. 15). We have been refining the heat-shield
technology using our Dragon spacecraft, and we are on
version 3 of PICA, which is a phenolic-impregnated carbon
ablator, and it is getting more robust with each new version,
Length
Max Diameter
Raptor Engines
Vacuum Thrust
Propellant Mass
Dry Mass
Cargo/Prop to LEO
Cargo to Mars
49.5 m
17 m
3 Sea-Level - 361s Isp
6 Vacuum - 382s Isp
31 MN
Ship: 1,950 t
Tanker: 2,500 t
Ship: 150 t
Tanker: 90 t
Ship: 300 t
Tanker: 380 t
450 t (with transfer on orbit)
Long term goal of 100+ passengers/ship
Fig. 13. Characteristics of the interplanetary spaceship.
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with less ablation, more resistance, and less need for refurbishment.
The heat shield is basically a giant brake pad. It is a matter of
how good you can make that brake pad against extreme reentry
conditions, minimize the cost of refurbishment, and
make it so that you could have many flights with no refurbishment
at all.
I want to give you a sense of what it would feel like to
actually be in the spaceship. In order to make it appealing and
increase that portion of the Venn diagram where people
Fig. 14. Earth–Mars transit time (in days).
ARRIVAL
From interplanetary space, the ship enters the atmosphere, either
capturing into orbit or proceeding directly to landing
Aerodynamic forces provide the majority of the deceleration,
then 3 center Raptor engines perform the final landing burn
Using its aerodynamic lift capability and advanced heat shield
materials, the ship can decelerate from entry velocities in excess
of 8.5 km/s at Mars and 12.5 km/s at Earth
G-forces (Earth-referenced) during entry are approximately 4-6 g’s
at Mars and 2-3 g’s at Earth
Heating is within the capabilities of the PICA-family of heat shield
materials used on our Dragon spacecraft
PICA 3.0 advancements for Dragon 2 enhance our ability to
use the heat shield many times with minimal maintenance
Fig. 15. Heat-shield technology for arrival.
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actually want to go, it has got to be really fun and exciting—it
cannot feel cramped or boring. Therefore, the crew compartment
or the occupant compartment is set up so that you can do
zero-gravity games—you can float around. There will be
movies, lecture halls, cabins, and a restaurant. It will be really
fun to go. You are going to have a great time!
PROPELLANT PLANT
The ingredients are there on Mars to create a propellant plant
with relative ease because the atmosphere is primarily CO2, and
water-ice is almost everywhere. There is CO2 plus H2O to make
methane, CH4, and oxygen, O2, using the Sabatier reaction.
The trickiest thing really is the energy source, which can be
done with a large field of solar panels (Fig. 16).
COST PER TRIP
The key is making this affordable to almost anyone who
wants to go (Fig. 17). Based on this architecture, assuming
optimization over time, we are looking at a cost per ticket of
<$200,000, maybe as little as $100,000 over time, depending
upon how much mass a person takes.
Right now, we are estimating about $140,000 per ton for
the trips to Mars. If a person plus their luggage is less than
that, taking into account food consumption and life support,
the cost of moving to Mars could ultimately drop below
$100,000.
Obviously, it is going to be a challenge to fund this
whole endeavor. We expect to generate a pretty decent net
Fig. 16. Propellant production on Mars.
With full reuse, our overall architecture enables significant reduction in cost to Mars
FABRICATION COST
COSTS
LIFETIME LAUNCHES
LAUNCHES PER MARS TRIP
AVERAGE MAINTENANCE
COST PER USE
BOOSTER TANKER SHIP
$230M
$11M
$130M $200M
1,000 100 12
6 5 1
$0.2M $0.5M $10M
TOTAL COST PER ONE $8M $43M
MARS TRIP (Amortization,
Propellant, Maintenance)
Cost Of Propellant: $168/t
Launch Site Costs: $200,000/launch
Discount Rate: 5%
Sum Of Costs: $62 M
Cargo Delivered: 450 T
Cost/ton to Mars: <$140,000
550
440
330
220
110
0
55
165
275
385
495
$ per kg
1 2 3 4 567 8 9 10 11 12
Ship Lifetime Flights
Fig. 17. Cost per ton to Mars.
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cash flow from launching lots of satellites and servicing the
space station for NASA, transferring cargo to and from the
space station.
There are also many people in the private sector who are
interested in helping to fund a base on Mars, and perhaps
there will be interest on the government sector side to do that
too. Ultimately, this is going to be a huge public–private
partnership.
Right now, we are just trying to make as much progress as
we can with the resources that we have available and to keep
the ball moving forward. As we show that this is possible and
that this dream is real—it is not just a dream, it is something
that can be made real—the support will snowball over time.
I should also add that the main reason I am personally
accumulating assets is in order to fund this. I really do not
have any other motivation for personally accumulating assets
except to be able to make the biggest contribution I can to
making life multi-planetary.
TIMELINES
In 2002, SpaceX basically consisted of carpet and a mariachi
band. That was it. I thought we had maybe a 10%
chance of doing anything—of even getting a rocket to orbit,
let alone getting beyond that and taking Mars seriously.
However, I came to the conclusion that if there were no
new entrants into the space arena with a strong ideological
motivation, then it did not seem as if we were on a trajectory
to ever be a space-based civilization and be out there among
the stars.
In 1969, we were able to go to the moon, and the space
shuttle could get to low Earth orbit. Then the space shuttle was
retired. However, that trend line is down to zero. What many
people do not appreciate is that technology does not automatically
improve; it only improves if a lot of really strong
engineering talent is applied to the problem. There are many
examples in history where civilizations have reached a certain
technology level, fallen well below that, and then recovered
only millennia later.
We went from 2002, where we basically were clueless, and
we built the smallest, useful orbital rocket that we could think
of with Falcon 1, which would deliver half a ton to orbit. Four
years later, we developed the first vehicle. We developed the
main engine, the upper-stage engine, the airframes, the fairing,
and the launch system, and we had our first attempt at
launch in 2006, which failed. It lasted about 60 seconds, unfortunately.
However, 2006, 4 years after starting, was also when we got
our first NASA contract (Fig. 18). I am incredibly grateful to
Fig. 18. SpaceX milestones.
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NASA for supporting SpaceX, despite the fact that our rocket
crashed. I am NASA’s biggest fan. Thank you very much to the
people who had the faith to do that.
Finally, the fourth launch of Falcon 1 worked in 2008
(Fig. 18). We were really down to our last pennies. In fact, I
only thought I had enough money for three launches, and the
first three failed! We were able to scrape together enough to
just make it and do a fourth launch, and, thank goodness—that
fourth launch succeeded in 2008. That was a lot of pain.
The end of 2008 is also when NASA awarded us the first
major operational contract, which was for resupplying cargo
to the space station and bringing cargo back. A couple of years
later, we did the first launch of Falcon 9, version 1, and that
had about a 10-ton-to-orbit capability, which was about 20
times the capability of Falcon 1 (Fig. 18). It was also assigned
to carry our Dragon spacecraft.
It was in 2012 when we delivered and returned cargo
from the space station. In 2013, we started doing vertical
take-off and landing tests for the first time (Fig. 18). Then, in
2014, we were able to have the first orbital booster do a soft
landing in the ocean. The landing was soft, it fell over, and it
exploded. However, for 7 seconds, it was good. We also
improved the capability of the vehicle from 10 tons to about
13 tons to LEO. December 2015, was definitely one of the
best moments of my life: the rocket booster came back and
landed at Cape Canaveral (Fig. 18). That really showed that
we could bring an orbital-class booster back from a very high
velocity, all the way to the launch site, and land it safely with
almost no refurbishment required for reflight. If things go
well, we are hoping to refly one of the landed boosters in a
few months.
In 2016, we also demonstrated landing on a ship (Fig. 18),
which is important for both the very high-velocity geosynchronous
missions and for the reusability of Falcon 9 because
about roughly a quarter of our missions service the space
station. There are a few other lower-orbit missions, but
probably 60% of our missions are commercial GEO missions.
These high-velocity missions need to land on a ship out at sea.
They do not have enough propellant onboard to boost back to
the launch site.
FUTURE
Figure 19 shows the future—next steps. We were intentionally
fuzzy about this timeline. However, we are going to
try to make as much progress as we can on a very constrained
budget, on the elements of the interplanetary transport booster
and spaceship. Hopefully, we will be able to complete the first
development spaceship in maybe about 4 years, and we will
start doing suborbital flights with that.
It has enough capability that you could possibly go to orbit
if you limit the amount of cargo on the spaceship. You would
have to really strip it down, but in tanker form, it could definitely
get to orbit. It cannot get back, but it can get to orbit.
Maybe there is some market for the really fast transport of
things around the world, provided we can land somewhere
where noise is not a super-big deal because rockets are very
noisy. We could transport cargo to anywhere on Earth in 45
minutes at the most. Hence, most places on Earth would be
20–25 minutes away. If we had a floating platform off the
coast of New York, 20–30 miles out, you could go from New
York to Tokyo in 25 minutes and across the Atlantic in 10
minutes. Most of your time would be spent getting to the ship,
FALCON HEAVY
NEXT STEPS
CREW DRAGON
DEVELOPMENT
RED DRAGON MISSIONS
INTERPLANETARY TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
ORBITAL TESTING
SHIP TESTING
BOOSTER TESTING
STRUCTURES DEVELOPMENT
PROPULSION DEVELOPMENT
MARS FLIGHTS
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
LAUNCH WINDOW TO MARS
Fig. 19. Next steps in the development of the interplanetary transport system.
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and then it would be very quick after that. Therefore, there are
some intriguing possibilities there, although we are not
counting on that.
Then, there is the development of the booster. The booster
part is relatively straightforward because it amounts to a
scaling up of the Falcon 9 booster. So, we do not see that there
will be many showstoppers there.
Then it will be a case of trying to put it all together and make
this actually work for Mars. If things go super-well, it might be
in the 10-year timeframe, but I do not want to say that is when
it will occur. There is a huge amount of risk. It is going to cost a
lot. There is a good chance we will not succeed, but we are
going to do our best and try to make as much progress as
possible.
RED DRAGON
We are going to try to send something to Mars on every
Mars rendezvous from this point on. We plan to send Dragon
2, which is a propulsive lander, to Mars in a couple of years,
and then probably do another Dragon mission in 2020
(Fig. 20).
We want to establish a steady cadence, so that there is always
a flight leaving, just like there is a train leaving the
station. With every Mars rendezvous, we will be sending at
least a Dragon to Mars and ultimately the big spaceship. If
there are people who are interested in putting payloads on
Dragon, you know you can count on a ship that is going to
transport something on the order of at least two or three tons
of useful payloads to the surface of Mars.
That is part of the reason why we designed Dragon 2 to be a
propulsive lander. As a propulsive lander, you can go anywhere
in the solar system. You could go to the moon. You
could go to, well, anywhere! However, if something relies on
wings, you can pretty much only land on Earth because you
need a runway, and most places do not have a runway. As for
parachutes, you cannot use those anywhere that does not have
a dense atmosphere. However, propulsive works anywhere.
Therefore, we should be able to land Dragon on any solid or
liquid surface in the solar system.
RAPTOR FIRING
I was really excited to see all our Raptor engines firing
(Fig. 21). The Raptor is a really tricky engine. It is a lot trickier
than a Merlin because it is a full-flow stage combustion, with
much higher pressure. I am amazed that it did not blow up on
the first firing, but fortunately it was good.
Part of the reason for making the engine small, although
it has three times the thrust of a Merlin, it is actually
only about the same size as a Merlin engine
because it has three times the operating pressure. That
means we can use many of the production techniques that
we honed with Merlin.
We are currently producing Merlin engines at almost 300
per year. Therefore, we understand how to make rocket engines
in volume. Hence, even though the Mars vehicle uses 42
on the base and nine on the upper stage—so we have 51 engines
to make—that is well within our production capabilities
for Merlin. This is a similarly sized engine to Merlin, except
for the expansion ratio. We therefore feel really comfortable
about being able to make this engine in volume at a price that
does not break our budget.
CARBON-FIBER TANK
We also wanted to make progress on the primary structure.
As I mentioned, this is really a very difficult thing to make out
of carbon fiber, even though carbon fiber has incredible
strength to weight. When you then want to put super-cold
Mission Objectives
Learn how to transport and land large
payloads on Mars
Identify and characterize potential resources
such as water
Characterize potential landing sites, including
identifying surface hazards
Demonstrate key surface
capabilities on Mars
Fig. 20. Red Dragon mission objectives. Fig. 21. Raptor engine firing.
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liquid oxygen and liquid methane, particularly liquid oxygen,
in the tank, it is subject to cracking and leaking.
The sheer scale of it is also challenging because you have to
lay out the carbon fiber in exactly the right way on a huge
mold, and you have to cure that mold at temperature. It is just
really hard to make large carbon-fiber structures that could do
all of those things and carry incredible loads.
That was the other thing we wanted to focus on: the first
development tank for the Mars spaceship. This is really the
hardest part of the spaceship. The other pieces we have a pretty
good handle on, but this was the trickiest one so we wanted to
tackle it first.
This was a massive achievement. Huge congratulations are
due to the team that worked on it. We managed to build the
first tank, and the initial test with the cryogenic propellant
actually looks quite positive. We have not seen any leaks or
major issues.
Figure 22 is what the tank looks like on the inside. You
get a real sense of just how big this tank is. It is completely
smooth on the inside, but the way that the carbon fiber
applies, lays up, and reflects the light makes it look multifaceted.
BEYOND MARS
What about beyond Mars? As we thought about the system
and the reason we call it a system—because generally, I do not
Fig. 22. (A) Interior and (B) exterior views of the carbon fiber tank.
Fig. 23. Flyby of Jupiter.
Fig. 24. Propellant depot on Enceladus.
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like calling things ‘‘systems,’’ as everything is a system, including
your dog. However, it is actually more than a vehicle.
There is obviously the rocket booster, the spaceship, the
tanker and the propellant plant, and the in situ propellant
production.
If you have all four of these elements, you can go anywhere
in the solar system by planet hopping or moon hopping. By
establishing a propellant depot on the asteroid belt or on one
of the moons of Jupiter, you can make flights from Mars to
Jupiter. In fact, even without a propellant depot at Mars, you
can do a flyby of Jupiter (Fig. 23).
However, by establishing a propellant depot, say on Enceladus
(Fig. 24) or Europa (Fig. 25), and then establishing
another one on Titan, Saturn’s moon, and then perhaps another
one further out on Pluto or elsewhere in the solar system,
this system really gives you the freedom to go anywhere you
want in the greater solar system (Fig. 26).
Therefore, you could travel out to the Kuiper Belt, to the
Oort cloud. I would not recommend this for interstellar journeys,
but this basic system—provided we have filling stations
along the way—means full access to the entire greater
solar system.
Fig. 25. Propellant depot on Europa. Fig. 26. Flyby of Saturn.
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Bill said
Max, quite the post, kinda makes me wonder - ?!  

3 things that you need to read in order to understand the magnitude of the technological revolution ahead in the next 30 years. It will be quite a steep curve and the world as we know it right now will no longer exist. A human born in the prehistoric era who is put in the world today will have seen less change than us being put in this world in 30 years from today.

To understand how our kids will have the choice to colonize Mars instead of staying on this planet, and how we will have the option to visit them for $120000-$500000 and understand the seriousness of this piece of paper http://online.liebertpub.com/d......29009.emu

You need to understand the magnitude of Elon Musk credibility by reading Tim Urban's picture description of the guy https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/05/elon-musk-the-worlds-raddest-man.html
http://pm22100.net/01_PDF_THEM.....N_MUSK.pdf

or Ashlee Vance biography of Musk http://www.ebookkake.com/2017/.....nload.html

And to understand who a guy like this can exist, you need to have read Malcom Gladwell's book The Outliers. http://banco.az/sites/default/.....uccess.pdf