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Email this12:20 pm
March 15, 2019
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I think rates will peak in late 2022. Economy is already showing signs of slowing down.
12:29 pm
April 21, 2022
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COIN said
I think rates will peak in late 2022. Economy is already showing signs of slowing down.
My guess, when inflation falls within the BoC's targeted range of around 2%.
12:39 pm
August 6, 2018
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The market currently expects US fed funds rate to peak in March/April of 2023 at 3.5%. CAD might be similar.
12:48 pm
January 12, 2019
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.
LOL ... this thread reminds me of a game we played at BD parties,
when we were kids . . .
.
.
Good Luck ❗ 
- Dean
" Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! "
12:57 pm
March 15, 2019
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The view from Bank of Montreal.
https://commercial.bmo.com/en/resources/economic-insights/resilience-or-recession/
2:08 pm
January 12, 2019
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.
A much more recent 'Guess', from yesterday :
Sorry, that's all I've got right now ... I can't find my Crystal Ball. 
- Dean
" Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! "
5:24 pm
September 11, 2013
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If a recession comes is it inevitable that interest rates drop? I thought the "flation" part of stagflation meant that inflation during a recession could keep interest rates high, at least for a while - ?
6:04 pm
October 27, 2013
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Bill said
If a recession comes is it inevitable that interest rates drop? I thought the "flation" part of stagflation meant that inflation during a recession could keep interest rates high, at least for a while - ?
It could if it is indeed stagflation. We can't be sure it will unfold this way, and most likely will not. Inflation with high unemployment is a specific animal that is not part of a normal business cycle.
8:50 pm
October 21, 2013
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Are we in a "normal business cycle"?
10:16 pm
December 16, 2020
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I'll play ....
Rates will peak when US Fed and BOC whisper very first quiet words acknowledging we are in Recession, providing first inkling of possible interest rate easing and potential for stimulus to markets. Jawboning always prepares the ground for fear and greed in markets.
Please send my cash prize to the charity of your choice 😉
7:08 am
March 30, 2017
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Depends on how high rates get to when recession materialize. My thoughts are CB will not be as quickly to cut, esp if they deem recession transitory, just like when they expected inflation to be transitory not too long ago 🙂
As long as unemployment stays low, need a deep recession to drag it to a level that CB deems aggregsive cuts are needed.
7:58 pm
November 18, 2017
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JohnnyCash: The Bank of Canada has forecast that inflation MIGHT be pulled back down to 4% in 2-4 years! Predicting the peak for rates is going to be a mug's game until the recession hits, and waiting for next year pretty dangerous, IMHO.
I'm going to keep watching for inverted yield curves, and lock in a chunk with each significant rate hike. I expect to complete my year's ladder by September.
No guarantees, but a bit of hedging...
RetirEd
RetirEd
7:52 am
December 12, 2021
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Way to early to talk about the peak the rate just took off and is gaining altitude to reach Neutral Rate as clearly stated by BofC and the Fed. ECB just started.
"We may need to take more interest rate steps to get inflation back to target. Or we may need to move more quickly, we may need to take a larger step," said Governor Tiff Macklem at a news conference on June 9."
The C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council, also called on the bank to raise its key rate by three-quarters of a percentage point.
Fed officials indicated a series of increases that would take the funds rate to 3.4% this year, above the longer-run neutral rate of 2.5%.
Fasten your seatbelt and enjoy the ride until BofC and the Fed reach 3%
8:16 am
March 15, 2019
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"Fed officials indicated a series of increases that would take the funds rate to 3.4% this year,"
Will this all happen prior to the U.S. mid-terms in November?
10:07 am
January 12, 2019
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.
Meanwhile, back at the Ranch . . .
.
Hang on to your hats ❗
- Dean
" Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! "
4:53 pm
January 9, 2011
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There's one thing history (including short term/the past 3 months) consistently teaches us, and that is the B of C is slow as a snail to respond. That goes for up and down rate change reactions.
Look at real estate sales/prices in the past 30 days, on the eve of another 75 bp increase. Now if, as expected, BOC laser focuses on the inflation rate % compared to the same month a year ago, ignoring most other things, we will be long into recession and stagflation before they think about admitting the error of their ways. Again.Just my 2 cents.
"Keep your stick on the ice. Remember, I'm pulling for you. We're all in this together." - Red Green
5:54 pm
March 30, 2017
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dougjp said
There's one thing history (including short term/the past 3 months) consistently teaches us, and that is the B of C is slow as a snail to respond. That goes for up and down rate change reactions.Look at real estate sales/prices in the past 30 days, on the eve of another 75 bp increase. Now if, as expected, BOC laser focuses on the inflation rate % compared to the same month a year ago, ignoring most other things, we will be long into recession and stagflation before they think about admitting the error of their ways. Again.Just my 2 cents.
I am pretty sure BoC already has the mindset that if it takes a mild recession (whether thru aggressive rate hike or other external factor) to tame inflation, they wont mind it at all. The keyword is whether its mild or a crash landing.
6:37 pm
January 13, 2022
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Great read. This is an opinion piece, but a very nicely-researched one. Definitely worth a read. https://financialpost.com/investing/interest-rates-are-still-rising-but-investors-should-start-preparing-for-when-they-come-back-down
7:03 am
February 7, 2019
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2022/07/13 BoC rate +1.0%, now @ 2.5% ...
| CGO |
7:06 am
November 18, 2017
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THIS JUST IN:
The Bank of Canada has popped for a larger-than-expected 1% base rate increase!
Let's expect some more investment opportunities soon - and perhaps recession on a nearer horizon.
RetirEd
RetirEd
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