When Will Rates Peak? | General financial discussion | Discussion forum

Please consider registering
guest

sp_LogInOut Log In sp_Registration Register

Register | Lost password?
Advanced Search

— Forum Scope —




— Match —





— Forum Options —





Minimum search word length is 3 characters - maximum search word length is 84 characters

No permission to create posts
sp_Feed Topic RSS sp_TopicIcon
When Will Rates Peak?
July 8, 2022
12:20 pm
COIN
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 1129
Member Since:
March 15, 2019
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

I think rates will peak in late 2022. Economy is already showing signs of slowing down.

July 8, 2022
12:29 pm
JohnnyCash
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 337
Member Since:
April 21, 2022
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

COIN said
I think rates will peak in late 2022. Economy is already showing signs of slowing down.  

My guess, when inflation falls within the BoC's targeted range of around 2%.

July 8, 2022
12:39 pm
co
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 71
Member Since:
August 6, 2018
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

The market currently expects US fed funds rate to peak in March/April of 2023 at 3.5%. CAD might be similar.

July 8, 2022
12:48 pm
Dean
Valhalla Mountains, British Columbia
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 2126
Member Since:
January 12, 2019
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

.
LOL ... this thread reminds me of a game we played at BD parties,
when we were kids . . .
.

.

Good Luck ❗ sf-laugh

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! " sf-cool

July 8, 2022
12:57 pm
COIN
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 1129
Member Since:
March 15, 2019
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
July 8, 2022
2:08 pm
Dean
Valhalla Mountains, British Columbia
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 2126
Member Since:
January 12, 2019
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

.
A much more recent 'Guess', from yesterday :

Sorry, that's all I've got right now ... I can't find my Crystal Ball. sf-wink

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! " sf-cool

July 8, 2022
5:24 pm
Bill
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 4012
Member Since:
September 11, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

If a recession comes is it inevitable that interest rates drop? I thought the "flation" part of stagflation meant that inflation during a recession could keep interest rates high, at least for a while - ?

July 8, 2022
6:04 pm
AltaRed
BC Interior
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 3111
Member Since:
October 27, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

Bill said
If a recession comes is it inevitable that interest rates drop? I thought the "flation" part of stagflation meant that inflation during a recession could keep interest rates high, at least for a while - ?  

It could if it is indeed stagflation. We can't be sure it will unfold this way, and most likely will not. Inflation with high unemployment is a specific animal that is not part of a normal business cycle.

July 8, 2022
8:50 pm
Loonie
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 9384
Member Since:
October 21, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

Are we in a "normal business cycle"?

July 8, 2022
10:16 pm
ExtraSauce
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 74
Member Since:
December 16, 2020
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

I'll play ....

Rates will peak when US Fed and BOC whisper very first quiet words acknowledging we are in Recession, providing first inkling of possible interest rate easing and potential for stimulus to markets. Jawboning always prepares the ground for fear and greed in markets.

Please send my cash prize to the charity of your choice 😉

July 9, 2022
7:08 am
savemoresaveoften
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 2978
Member Since:
March 30, 2017
sp_UserOnlineSmall Online

Depends on how high rates get to when recession materialize. My thoughts are CB will not be as quickly to cut, esp if they deem recession transitory, just like when they expected inflation to be transitory not too long ago 🙂

As long as unemployment stays low, need a deep recession to drag it to a level that CB deems aggregsive cuts are needed.

July 9, 2022
7:58 pm
RetirEd
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 1148
Member Since:
November 18, 2017
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

JohnnyCash: The Bank of Canada has forecast that inflation MIGHT be pulled back down to 4% in 2-4 years! Predicting the peak for rates is going to be a mug's game until the recession hits, and waiting for next year pretty dangerous, IMHO.

I'm going to keep watching for inverted yield curves, and lock in a chunk with each significant rate hike. I expect to complete my year's ladder by September.

No guarantees, but a bit of hedging...
RetirEd

RetirEd

July 10, 2022
7:52 am
agit
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 192
Member Since:
December 12, 2021
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

Way to early to talk about the peak the rate just took off and is gaining altitude to reach Neutral Rate as clearly stated by BofC and the Fed. ECB just started.

"We may need to take more interest rate steps to get inflation back to target. Or we may need to move more quickly, we may need to take a larger step," said Governor Tiff Macklem at a news conference on June 9."

The C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council, also called on the bank to raise its key rate by three-quarters of a percentage point.

Fed officials indicated a series of increases that would take the funds rate to 3.4% this year, above the longer-run neutral rate of 2.5%.

Fasten your seatbelt and enjoy the ride until BofC and the Fed reach 3%

July 10, 2022
8:16 am
COIN
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 1129
Member Since:
March 15, 2019
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

"Fed officials indicated a series of increases that would take the funds rate to 3.4% this year,"

Will this all happen prior to the U.S. mid-terms in November?

July 12, 2022
10:07 am
Dean
Valhalla Mountains, British Columbia
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 2126
Member Since:
January 12, 2019
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

.
Meanwhile, back at the Ranch . . .

.
Hang on to your hats ❗

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! " sf-cool

July 12, 2022
4:53 pm
dougjp
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 594
Member Since:
January 9, 2011
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

There's one thing history (including short term/the past 3 months) consistently teaches us, and that is the B of C is slow as a snail to respond. That goes for up and down rate change reactions.

Look at real estate sales/prices in the past 30 days, on the eve of another 75 bp increase. Now if, as expected, BOC laser focuses on the inflation rate % compared to the same month a year ago, ignoring most other things, we will be long into recession and stagflation before they think about admitting the error of their ways. Again.Just my 2 cents.

"Keep your stick on the ice. Remember, I'm pulling for you. We're all in this together." - Red Green

July 12, 2022
5:54 pm
savemoresaveoften
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 2978
Member Since:
March 30, 2017
sp_UserOnlineSmall Online

dougjp said
There's one thing history (including short term/the past 3 months) consistently teaches us, and that is the B of C is slow as a snail to respond. That goes for up and down rate change reactions.

Look at real estate sales/prices in the past 30 days, on the eve of another 75 bp increase. Now if, as expected, BOC laser focuses on the inflation rate % compared to the same month a year ago, ignoring most other things, we will be long into recession and stagflation before they think about admitting the error of their ways. Again.Just my 2 cents.  

I am pretty sure BoC already has the mindset that if it takes a mild recession (whether thru aggressive rate hike or other external factor) to tame inflation, they wont mind it at all. The keyword is whether its mild or a crash landing.

July 12, 2022
6:37 pm
lifeonanisland
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 241
Member Since:
January 13, 2022
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

Great read. This is an opinion piece, but a very nicely-researched one. Definitely worth a read. https://financialpost.com/investing/interest-rates-are-still-rising-but-investors-should-start-preparing-for-when-they-come-back-down

July 13, 2022
7:03 am
cgouimet
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 1532
Member Since:
February 7, 2019
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

2022/07/13 BoC rate +1.0%, now @ 2.5% ...

CGO
July 13, 2022
7:06 am
RetirEd
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 1148
Member Since:
November 18, 2017
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

THIS JUST IN:

The Bank of Canada has popped for a larger-than-expected 1% base rate increase!

Let's expect some more investment opportunities soon - and perhaps recession on a nearer horizon.
RetirEd

RetirEd

No permission to create posts

Please write your comments in the forum.