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Email this12:30 pm
February 27, 2018
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If Russia invades the Ukraine. What would/could happen, financially to us here in canada?
Oil and natural gas prices would go higher. We'd pay more at the pumps.
The stock market would correct. There would be a rush to exit. Debt would be called, resulting in the selling off of assets.
OR
Would it be like the Americans invading Iraq and Afghanistan. Our life here in canada carries on, with no real change?
1:13 pm
February 7, 2019
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Wars outside NA tend to be good for NA stocks - supplies for the destruction of war and then rebuilding post destruction. Very cold but very true ...
What we need to worry about in Canada are the blockades:
Shortages to start.
Then USA protectionism because they can't depend on Canada - already heard that after 1 lost Cadillac shift!
| CGO |
4:03 pm
October 27, 2013
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After some initial volatility, I agree with the view the market would merrily carry on. There will be economic sanctions placed on Russia that will hurt some trade and some companies but I suspect Russian purchases from western corporation is not a big part of any corporation's business.
Russia won't cut off oil and gas flows to Europe. They are desperate for foreign currency and they will have to fund a very expensive occupation of Ukraine. Nothing to worry about in a well diversified portfolio.
4:18 pm
January 28, 2015
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My suncor / enbridge and other oil stocks should go thru the roof. Joe is going to be sorry he shut down keystone xl ,when Russia has the lines to europe shut off and europe looks for fuel. Pipeline east sounds good too to supply Europe with LNG
5:54 pm
January 12, 2019
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mechone said
. . . when Russia has the lines to Europe shut off and Europe looks for fuel. Pipeline east sounds good too to supply Europe with LNG
Most of Northwest Europe would freeze to death, long before that ⬆ happened. Putin has got our European Allies by the 'short hairs' ... and it's their own fault ❗
I hope I'm wrong, but I'm guessing Ukraine will be a new Russian 'Puppet Province', before the end of this month. 
- Dean
" Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! "
6:18 pm
October 27, 2013
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Keystone XL wouldn't have been ready in time for this event. Besides it would have been a stranded asset by 2035. Oil demand is going to roll over since EVs will have a pretty good saturation by then, at least 50% of new registrations. Shake the fog out of that crystal ball.
5:43 am
March 30, 2017
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AltaRed said
After some initial volatility, I agree with the view the market would merrily carry on. There will be economic sanctions placed on Russia that will hurt some trade and some companies but I suspect Russian purchases from western corporation is not a big part of any corporation's business.Russia won't cut off oil and gas flows to Europe. They are desperate for foreign currency and they will have to fund a very expensive occupation of Ukraine. Nothing to worry about in a well diversified portfolio.
+1
Market may correct a bit, but it just means another buying opportunity. Europe prob get affected a lot more given the location and the need for Russian oil and natural gas esp during winter. At the end of the day, Russia will win more than it will lose, in terms of negotiating "better secret terms" with Europe. Thats' Putin ultimate goal, to secure his power / legacy.
US sanctions, Canada sending non-military supply is just a show to say "we care"...
6:45 am
November 8, 2021
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Dean said
I hope I'm wrong, but I'm guessing Ukraine will be a new Russian 'Puppet Province', before the end of this month.
Dean
Putin's modus operandi has in most cases been the same: he does not invade and occupy a whole sovereign nation (if not "invited" by the regime), but rather, tears apart a chunk of it to use as a "buffer zone" for Russia's "security needs".
And yes, of course, we'll experience financial, and int'l instability (Russia, China, plus rogue regimes vs. the west) such as was already mentioned in this thread.
6:47 am
November 8, 2018
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mechone said
My suncor / enbridge and other oil stocks should go thru the roof.
That depends. After taking over Ukraine, Putin may want to pacify EU, punish US and expand rift between these two.
He can do that by flooding EU markets with cheap natural gas and oil. He can afford that. EU will be happy to see lower consumer energy bills, US oil and LNG industry will take the hit. Your investments in oil stocks, too.
I can't read Putin's mind, but this is an option he should have considered. He would definitely want to be a good guy for his "European partners." For some time, at least.
7:41 am
January 9, 2011
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cgouimet said
Wars outside NA tend to be good for NA stocks - supplies for the destruction of war and then rebuilding post destruction. Very cold but very true ...What we need to worry about in Canada are the blockades:
Shortages to start.
Then USA protectionism because they can't depend on Canada - already heard that after 1 lost Cadillac shift!
Agree on all point made here.
Gretchin Whitmer (Democrat) absolutely hates Canada and is already talking with the auto manufacturers about re-opening plants/incentives to move auto support production and anything else from Canada to Michigan, courtesy of our law breakers.
Biden (also a Dem), needing little excuse and desperately needing votes via JOBS, sees the Canadian problem of being unable to control or do anything (more important here to allow the few to destroy the many), said just a few days ago " I made it clear from day one: When the federal government spends taxpayers’ dollars, we’re going to buy American: American products made in America, including American component parts. " I'd say that makes it clear.
I can't even find the pet food I need to have, for weeks now, when it was always available. Compare availability of all products from a month ago to today, to the next month. Inflation? Add massive supply and demand shift caused by our idiots, to price gouging, other supply chain issues.
Oil and gas, and soon auto related (and other) manufacturing. The wall is covered with the handwriting. Time to shift investments, IMO.
"Keep your stick on the ice. Remember, I'm pulling for you. We're all in this together." - Red Green
9:41 am
September 11, 2013
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You couldn't be more right, dougjp, Biden's been saying this from day one but southern Ontarians have preferred to be elated about the demise of previous Republican POTUS. Biden's heading to Ohio this week to distribute a pile on infrastructure, etc. Also see:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/01/25/statement-by-president-biden-on-general-motors-investment-in-michigan/
Appears our fed govt's plan is that cars are evil anyways so we'll just do other (more "planet-friendly") stuff instead, and I think most young Canadians today agree with that anyway. So it's all good.
10:28 am
October 27, 2013
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This thread was focused on the potential for near term market blips due to a potential noose tightening on the Ukraine. Perhaps that is what we continue the focus on?
The 'Buy America' theme is a considerably longer term issue that will be a headwind to Canada's GDP growth numbers throughout this decade and is worthy of its own thread I think.
11:38 am
October 21, 2013
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AltaRed is correct. Trump was just as inward-looking. I see Biden as really just following his footsteps.
11:59 am
February 7, 2019
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Loonie said
AltaRed is correct. Trump was just as inward-looking. I see Biden as really just following his footsteps.
Dem's have always been much more protectionist than Rep's. Trump wanted trade but on his terms which means there can be no win-win, only win-lose, which is how he ran his businesses...
| CGO |
12:48 pm
October 21, 2013
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Same diff.
The AutoPact, a foundaitonal agreement which kept our auto industry going for decades, was enacted during the Lyndon Johnson administrtion in the US (Dem).
1:41 pm
February 7, 2019
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Also ...
I spent my 42 years of employment working for Canadian subs of US companies, one public and one private. What I learned early on is that Americans never enter into agreements they intend to honour. Never!
Western Europeans, Japanese and South Koreans were always good to work with. South Americans were OK but political stability was always problematic.
| CGO |
7:23 am
November 8, 2018
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Alexandre said
mechone said
My suncor / enbridge and other oil stocks should go thru the roof.That depends. After taking over Ukraine, Putin may want to pacify EU, punish US and expand rift between these two.
He can do that by flooding EU markets with cheap natural gas and oil. He can afford that. EU will be happy to see lower consumer energy bills, US oil and LNG industry will take the hit.
I think I might have given too much credit to Putin and his inner circle. Hold onto your energy stocks.
12:31 pm
April 27, 2017
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cgouimet said
Also ...I spent my 42 years of employment working for Canadian subs of US companies, one public and one private. What I learned early on is that Americans never enter into agreements they intend to honour. Never!
Western Europeans, Japanese and South Koreans were always good to work with. South Americans were OK but political stability was always problematic.
Impressive generalization. Not in a good way.
I spent mere 25 years partnering US corporations as well as working for a US subsidiary. Still waiting for any evidence supporting such claims.
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