The Timing of Bank of Canada interest rate announcements and us. | General financial discussion | Discussion forum

Unless we get much higher inflation, lower debt ratios, solid economic news and or higher oil prices, there won’t be any rate hikes in 2019. There is a possibility for one hike in the summer, if things don’t get worse and an outside chance for two hikes. But anything more requires serious changes and there could even be decreases(I hope not).

At this time, the BoC only has one reason to hike rates and that’s the desire to normalize the overnight rate to neutral. That would be around 3.0%. I wouldn’t see that as a good enough reason alone.

Higher interest rates won’t bring rents down. Higher interest rates are generally a great way to cool the economy and bring down housing cost, but in our current condition, it would be at the expense of the households themselves, as debt servicing cost goes up. It’s a rock and a hard place. I agree that interest rates need to rise, but it’s a very slippery slope right now.

Transportation is about 19.5% of the CPI weighting and insurance premiums are a component of that and about 2.9%

hotmony said
A good indicator rates will tick up again is the stock market is rising. The two generally move in opposite direction.  

The stock market reacts to an interest rate change and doesn’t influence rate change decisions. The market does generally react inversely when all other factors remain the same.

Bond yields are mighty low and declining. Unless they rise and significantly, I don’t see rate hikes anytime soon.

There is a lot of fear in the world right now. Fear is the enemy of bond yields. We need some very good news if you want higher bond yields.