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Stock churn payback theory
March 31, 2020
7:58 pm
Bud
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"The payback period is the time it would take for a company's earnings to equal the stockprice paid by the investor."

Take Amazon for example relatively low margin profits for years had losses yet investors bought and sold its stock trillions of times/dollars. The stock will never payback that capital gains churn.

April 17, 2020
11:15 am
Bud
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Wouldnt you say Amazon is bogus as a public co. the company trades hundreds of billions of stock annually with limited profit no dividend doesnt make sense. Its been going on for years. Am I missing something they'll never make enough profit to justify the trillions of dollars in gains trading in the stock. 

April 21, 2020
2:50 pm
cruzinalong
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Bud said
Wouldnt you say Amazon is bogus as a public co. the company trades hundreds of billions of stock annually with limited profit no dividend doesnt make sense. Its been going on for years. Am I missing something they'll never make enough profit to justify the trillions of dollars in gains trading in the stock.   

Keep a far distance from them.

April 22, 2020
5:06 am
Bud
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Amazon looks like a scam been around for many years never made much relative profit or paid a dividend 100yrs payback. Trades like a suckers cult stock.

April 22, 2020
10:51 pm
Loonie
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Nobody gave them a snowball's chance in Hades when they started selling books, cheap, in the early days. They never made a profit as far as I know, on books, but they kept doing it. They kept expanding and squeezing out other retailers. Just try to find an independent bookseller now.

Bezos is an extremely wealthy man. Amazon is a gigantic corporation, exploits its workers big time and pays them as little as they can get away with.

Amazon's goal as far as I can see is world domination, and they are proceeding apace. Who do you know who never orders anything from amazon? Who do you know who orders from them regularly? That's the story. And then there are their many many subsidiary companies.

For me, they are the retailer of last resort. I want to maintain the possibility of choice in future; they don't.

I would be very cautious about underestimating a multi-trillion-dollar company that is still growing and is being successful with its game plan. They don't care about dividends etc. as they are still in the growth phase and probably will be for a long time. World domination takes time.

I read an article a little while ago by some allegedly wise person. I don't remember who. but what he said was interesting. When asked who/what all retailers should most fear, he said "amazon and costco". This was before Covid.

I've never read any of their annual reports or any commentaries about them. But I think it was Peter Lynch who said something to the effect that you can tell a lot just by looking around you about what businesses are succeeding and are likely to succeed
.

April 23, 2020
6:48 am
Norman1
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One doesn't need to be profitable on Day One. Amazon is run by people who are long-term thinkers.

According to their 2019 annual report (at Annual reports, proxies and shareholder letters), sales was $280.5 billion in 2019. There was $11.6 billion in net income from those sales.

The company was not profitable on Day One. But, it has been profitable for a few years now. Enough to make up for previous losses. Cumulative retained earnings was +$31.2 billion at the end of 2019.

April 23, 2020
7:09 am
Bill
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I agree, Norman1, it's very early in Amazon's history. Think back to the early days of General Motors, Exxons, etc of the world when the age of fossil fuels came in compared to where they are today, same will happen with brand-new digital age. Though as the digital world is instantaneous, speed of light, the timelines will be vastly more compressed, in my view.

We can only hope that these large corporations achieve "world domination". Where there is a widespread large corporate sector is prosperity & freedom, wherever state-run economies are dominant is poverty and oppression.

April 23, 2020
10:18 pm
Loonie
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Bill said

We can only hope that these large corporations achieve "world domination". Where there is a widespread large corporate sector is prosperity & freedom, wherever state-run economies are dominant is poverty and oppression.  

That's an ill-considered statement, Bill. World domination by amazon or any other single player does not produce a "large corporate sector"; it just produces one large uncompetitive corporation.

The alternative to amazon's world domination is an economy where there are many vendors to choose from, where there is competition - quite the opposite of state control.

If amazon achieves world domination, you can kiss goodbye to any kind of price competition. Right now, amazon is at the low end of prices, but the purpose of that is to crush competition and to exert increasing control over producers, NOT to give us a bargain. It's part of the long term strategy. Once they've done that, they can charge whatever they want. With one corporation controlling most of the economy, it would be very difficult for meaningful competition to arise at a later date.

Once upon a time there used to be laws that prevented one corporation from having too much power, such as the breaking up of Standard Oil, but these are weak to non-existent now. We will all regret it if we live long enough..

April 24, 2020
6:07 am
Bill
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Never had more retail choice than today, even with the WalMarts, McDonalds, Amazons, etc of the world. Plus incorrect to use a more than century-old example of Standard Oil (a basic necessity of the emerging oil-based economy) with retailer selling mostly discretionary stuff. Plus in retail there's always some new model coming along, WalMart came along, Amazon out of nowhere (and heard of Alibaba?), there will be more who change the game again, always is. Plus "world domination" is ominous-sounding hyperbole to begin with, Apple has a kind of "world domination" and its users seem as happy as anyone else, maybe happier because they're Apple users!

Then there's the introduction by you of a new element to the conversation, the mandatory gratuitous judgement of someone whose opinion differs 180 degrees from yours - "ill-considered", eh? Ummm......ok, I find your statement puerile.

April 24, 2020
3:20 pm
Loonie
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We still do have retail choice although very little in bookstores since amazon came along, which is directly related.
Amazon's goal remains the crushing of competition in numerous ventures. As I said earlier, their goals are very long term. It doesn't happen overnight, but amazon is successfully moving towards meeting their goal. I won't repeat this a third time.

Amazon is under no obligation to restrict itself to retail.

As far as I've ever heard, every retailer in the world would be delighted to achieve world domination. It's not a negative from their perspective. I think it's helpful to recognize goals for what they are, but you are free to disagree.

Standard Oil is the example that came to mind perhaps because it was a landmark. There have been others. Within my lifetime. Our federal government refused permission for two or more of the Big Five banks to merge because they believed it would be negative for the strength of our economy. Some analysts said that this saved us from further disaster in 2008. I distinctly remember the look of shocked relief on Flaherty's face as he announced at that time that we weren't in such bad shape after all. He'd been looking at the data and found that his predecessors had done the right thing. The main point here is that constraints are possible and can be beneficial.

You don't like "ill-considered"? Merriam-Webster defines this as "not showing careful thought".

April 24, 2020
5:54 pm
Bill
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Loonie, I can see why you didn't deal with my point, which was that in fact, in our reality today, there is more choice than ever before. That's the real world you live in. How is it possible that it's never been easier to get any book you want, and for cheap, way more than a local bookstore or five ever carried? Tons of online booksellers, tiny to large, the world over, you seem to be familiar only with amazon. Never had more choices of financial institutions, big 5 plus a myriad of others featured here, new ones all the time, you're old enough to remember when the CDIC list of insured entities was much, much shorter. You name it, in every single aspect of life, every single one, we've got way more choice than ever, new and numerous competitors (from micro boutique to large) to the behemoths always arise, that's the reality. Though many have had the goal no-one has ever had close to "world domination", thus such goals are irrelevant to me, plus the future does not unfold from some mechanical, linear projection of today. Thanks to human ingenuity, etc there are invariably twists and 90 degree turns - check out human history, you'll see it over and over.

It's precisely in the heavily regulated situations you advocate, as in socialist or communist states, where choice is absent. Large corporations are one of humanity's crowning achievements, in my view particularly instrumental in the liberation of females for the only time in human history (to me an unequalled historical liberation), so I'm very happy for any opportunity to express that. Don't worry, amazon won't take over the world.

April 26, 2020
12:34 am
Loonie
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You've said all these things before, Bill. I don't think you are listening to what I am saying.
The fact that there are still some choices today has nothing to say about amazon's goals or its progress towards achieving them. Even Norman, to whom you regularly defer, noted that their strategy is very long term but your need to dump on me seems to have trumped even that usual alliance.

It's ironic that you would throw in your usual barbs about "socialism" and "communism" on this thread where I was actually showing that amazon might be a good investment, contrary to opinions expressed above mine.

I could say a lot more but it's clear you are not interested in a meaningful dialogue, so, 'bye.

April 26, 2020
9:07 am
Bill
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Loonie, you write "still some choices".

My point all along has been that you couldn't be more wrong if you tried when you imply, even with the Apples, Microsofts, amazons, big banks, Costcos and so on of today, that choice is narrowing.

My proof is the fact today there is far more choice than ever before.

Your latest counter is to ramble about imaginary alliances, barbs, etc. I'll take that and your sign off as indication you concede the point.

April 26, 2020
8:31 pm
Loonie
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Wrong on all counts, Bill, but no point in arguing with you. Obviously you never frequented good bookstores.

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