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Realtors suggesting selling price
May 13, 2016
9:38 am
Loonie
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In addition, houses are one-of-a-kind items (like items sold at auction houses) and thus inherently difficult to price with precision. It really is "what the market will bear", which appears to be the basis of any pricing system in a capitalist economy.
Prices set by realtors are supposed to represent their best guess as to a price that will both attract buyers and be in the ball park of what they are thinking of paying, based on what other homes in the area have sold for recently and market trends. Some, rogues, don't adhere to that and try to manipulate the market by their pricing, but that is the norm and the expectation. Also, some sellers won't accept their advice and insist on a different price.

Even new builds, where the prices are set by builders and less flexible, have variations, as no two lots are absolutely identical.

May 13, 2016
11:19 am
Bill
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MarkFog, my house is my property, no-one else's. As such, I can sell any of my property for whatever price (high, low or in between) I want to whomever I want with or without the involvement of an agent. There is no potential buyer who is compelled to buy it at any particular price, it's her choice whether to agree to any terms I insist on or to walk away. That's about it as far as I can see.

May 13, 2016
4:55 pm
xxxx
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You are correct, Bill. An Agreement of Purchase and Sale results when a "willing" buyer and a "willing" seller agree on a price (and frequently on other conditions). That is the way "the market" works - and the reality is that the market generally works quite well, in democracies such as Canada.

May 14, 2016
5:47 am
MarkFog
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Really, what it comes down to it, for me, is the fact the federal government is doing nothing to deal with the affordability of the housing in Toronto and Vancouver. Yes, you people are correct that prices are set by the market demand. Unfortunately, the market value of homes, especially in the Vancouver area are out of step with local incomes. Realtors are very aware of what is going on. There was an article in the Financial Post posted on May 10, 2016, that calls out on the BC and Federal governments to adopt similar polices like Australia and Singapore to deal with the influx of foreign money. It specifically outlines the issue to be Chinese investors funnelling money towards Canada. The statistics are there. The Trudeau government has allocated $500 million to study it. What will he do once he gets the data, no one really knows.

I can see some of you not having a problem with what is happening in these markets. Maybe because you are an existing house owner and want to be able to sell your house for the highest amount possible regardless who is the buyer. "Sell to the highest bid" you would say. If you are downsizing to a smaller property or leaving the city centres then, of course, it would be worthwhile for you. But, those of you that have children will find it very difficult to compete with foreign money even with higher education. In the article, a professional couple are renting a condo in Vancouver, they have two children. Both, were born and raised in Vancouver. They are first generation Canadian from Chinese descent. One is an engineer the other a lawyer. They cannot afford to buy a home in Vancouver and are thinking of leaving the area. So this is not a case of racism, since they are feeling this pressure just like every other Canadian. An employer mentioned that he is having difficulty finding workers because working class people are not coming to Vancouver. People in Toronto are afraid to sell their homes because they might not be able to improve on their current home by the time they find another property to upgrade to.

I've read some solutions to this problem. Like making your property tax deductible if you have a Canadian income. If you are a senior you receive the same deduction. Charging a surtax if the owner is not a resident or citizen of Canada. Other countries do this.

Whatever the solution, it is better to recognize there is a major problem with affordability for many working class Canadians in these two cities than to ignore it. Or, I don't know, maybe its better to let the markets just correct themselves and let the bubbles finally burst; repeating the crash of 1991.

May 14, 2016
6:45 am
xxxx
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Yes MarkFog - Asian investing in Vancouver has made that city the second most expensive housing city in the world. I do not see Toronto on the list of top 10 most expensive cities such as:
1. Hong Kong
2. Vancouver
3. Sydney AU
4. San Jose US
5. San Francisco
6. Melbourne AU
7. London UK
8. San Diego
9. Auckland NZ
10. Los Angeles US

and yes I do believe the market will likely "correct" at some point - but not until enough people refuse to pay the "asking prices". I would think most people in Canada do not want govt to regulate prices of houses. People should be aware the value of their home could stay static or drop - many who have bought condominiums across Canada have sure experienced that. But everyone needs a place to live and enjoy (and does not always expect it to rise in price) so as long as you can afford the cost of buying/maintaining the house, then the value may not be that important to everyone.

May 14, 2016
7:24 am
MarkFog
Toronto
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Yes, Brian. Toronto is not on the list you've posted. But, since I am a resident of Toronto, I have paid close attention to asking prices in my area. In the past year I have see a 30% increase in prices. Bidding wars are the norm with realtors posting "Sold Over Asking". I know of 5 houses that have been bought by foreign investors. The houses are renovated and two or more families rent. Some living situations are even counter to municipal occupancy limits. One owner had 20 students living in his home and someone blew the whistle. One of my neighbours has two families living in a back-split. Last year I asked for permission to trim the hedge between us and the guy living there said that he would have to speak to the owner. I asked if he lived here and he didn't want to say.

Yeah, it's true. It all depends on if people stop paying the asking price. But, that is assuming they are local people. Local incomes cannot compete with money from abroad. There are predications things will go even higher because property values in China are soaring and will push more investors abroad. A correction may not happen for many years to come, if ever. This would have to depend largely on if something happens in that market and not in Canada. In the meantime, the next generation exiting post-secondary institutions have to some how purchase a home and start a life. In the meantime Vancouver with turn into some sort of "ghost" town. Statistically speaking only 800 people between 18-35 have relocated to the city in the past year. The Canadians that don't want government intervention are obviously those that stand to profit from this situation. As I mentioned perviously, these are owners that will scream foul if the government were to affect the "equity" in their homes. Justin Trudeau said it himself back in December. However, Canadians on the other side of the spectrum would gladly welcome some sort of intervention.

May 14, 2016
7:43 am
xxxx
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Immigrants are still pouring into Toronto - so the pressure on housing there is not going to let up. Interesting situation - immigrants consider Canada a top choice for them and want to come here (can't blame them for that - Canada is one of the best ! (even with its issues) - and that will likely not end since I believe the Liberals want to increase immigration to higher levels - and then it has the effects you are expressing. I do not know if there is a solution - perhaps Canadians have to be more mobile for housing - go to the suburbs where costs are lower or to another town or province. Also, renting has become a feasible alternative - there is no law that says one must buy - and perhaps renting may be a better choice at this time if one thinks a housing correction might occur.

May 14, 2016
8:01 am
MarkFog
Toronto
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Immigration is not the issue here. Immigrants come, settle, work and contribute to the local economy. Just like every other immigrant has done for decades. Other immigrants like my parents came to Canada worked and bought their first home and their subsequent home. The issue is foreign investors that are choking even landed immigrants. This issue began with the Harper government's inaction. Besides, immigration is important to Canada since we are a large country with a small population. I have spoken to many people across the world that want to immigrant to Canada.

But, Canada is not like the US where employment is uniform throughout the country. Leave the city centres and you have very few opportunities for employment.

May 14, 2016
1:52 pm
xxxx
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yes, MarkFog, Canada is a large country with a small population but
- nobody wants to live in perhaps over 75% of the country - cold, remote, unpopulated etc. The population is concentrated in certain areas. Immigrants rarely if ever, choose to go to Yukon, NWT or the northern part of any province.
- They settle in the southern parts - they choose Toronto and area by a big margin (not Hudson Bay/northern Ontario). I presume your parents chose Toronto and so do current new immigrants. So just because we are a huge country that does not mean we will populate the huge unpopulated areas (and take pressure off Toronto) unless Govt implements such policies. That policy would likely take some pressure off the situation you are describing - but I doubt the sunny ways Liberal govt would do that.

May 14, 2016
4:15 pm
MarkFog
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Brian said

yes, MarkFog, Canada is a large country with a small population but
- nobody wants to live in perhaps over 75% of the country - cold, remote, unpopulated etc. The population is concentrated in certain areas. Immigrants rarely if ever, choose to go to Yukon, NWT or the northern part of any province.
- They settle in the southern parts - they choose Toronto and area by a big margin (not Hudson Bay/northern Ontario).

That is correct Brian. The vast majority of Canadians (including immigrants) don't want to locate to remote parts of this country. So, instead of having empty houses where the owners are overseas, it would be better suited for people that actually work in those cities and have families in those cities to have the opportunity to purchase those homes.

As history has shown us, when things are out of alignment with any market, things correct themselves on their own. I hope this actually happens.

And I agree with you, I don't see the Liberals doing much of anything.

May 14, 2016
5:42 pm
Loonie
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Not true that immigrants don't go to Yukon etc. In Yellowknife, all the cabbies I met were immigrants - just like in TO. It was a surprise to me too.

I have no stats on the extent of foreign ownership of Toronto houses. I have not seen that happening in my part of town at all - yet. Young families are definitely still buying in my area. It still is affordable for 2-income professional families, and they can expect to pay it off just as fast as or even faster than their parents did in today's low-interest environment if they live on one income and use the other to pay for the house, which is certainly do-able. In addition, some houses have rental units such as basement apartments. I think this is no longer feasible in Vancouver.
There is, however, a shortage of inventory of homes for sale in Toronto. It seems particularly acute this Spring, as I am just not seeing the signs springing up on the lawns as in previous years. And I know people who have been looking for months to years and can't find anything and lose out on bidding wars over and over. It seems there are 5 to 20 bidders for every house, and any liveable house sells for at least 100K over asking, no matter what the price is set at (so, you can't blame the realtors). Homeowners are not selling because there's essentially nowhere for them to go. I would sell mine if I could find a more suitable house to move to but I know how difficult it is and haven't even tried. And I don't want a condo. I do know a few who have sold and are now renting. They are all seniors, have cashed out, and now have a nest egg to live on.
I think Toronto, at least, may be the victim of its own success. It is growing into a "world class city". Go to London, Paris, New York, any major city, and you simply don't see houses outside of the distant burbs. You see apartments, condos, tenements, etc. This was happening in West Vancouver long before the current concern about foreign speculators, and has spread to other parts of the city. When a city reaches a certain size, houses are no longer the most efficient use of land, and land gets too expensive to keep a house on. Density overtakes the house with the backyard and the white picket fence. Every nook and cranny of Toronto is now being filled in with housing, and public space is at a real premium. Bungalows are sprouting second and even third storeys faster than you can count them.

Now, I'm all in favour of affordable housing, clamping down on speculators, etc. But the capitalist model has generally not been supportive of such measures. Is Trudeau willing to take on foreign speculators? I would expect a wishy-washy answer after the 500 million is spent. And I have no idea why it would cost that much to investigate.

May 14, 2016
6:12 pm
MarkFog
Toronto
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Loonie said
I have no stats on the extent of foreign ownership of Toronto houses. I have not seen that happening in my part of town at all - yet. Young families are definitely still buying in my area. It still is affordable for 2-income professional families, and they can expect to pay it off just as fast as or even faster than their parents did in today's low-interest environment if they live on one income and use the other to pay for the house, which is certainly do-able. In addition, some houses have rental units such as basement apartments. I think this is no longer feasible in Vancouver.
There is, however, a shortage of inventory of homes for sale in Toronto.

Hey Loonie, come to the Faiview Mall area and to the north. Houses have been sprouting up for sale. But, have been selling very fast. Three of my neighbours have gone to foreign owners. The maintenance of the home just behind me has deteriorated since it was bought 4 years ago. Peeling paint on the garage door, cracked veranda, grass growing high in the pathway. One other house sold last summer and never had a moving truck bring any furniture. House is empty. Maybe in your part of town young families can still buy a home. Not possible in my area anymore. There is a lack of children too. The average price for a back-split in decent condition is approximately $1.2 million. One bungalow on Victoria Park Ave. is listed at $1.08 million. It needs a wrecking ball than anything else, its in horrible condition. I agree that the houses coming on the market are from empty nesters and of people passing away. One old woman died a few weeks ago and her house was listed by her children. It was sold even before the first open-house which was to be this weekend. Again, sold over asking. At this point I don't know who the owner is.

Last year a realtor came canvassing door to door. She was oriental. During our conversation she confirmed that she has clients from China which are buying homes just from photos. Could it be speculation? Who knows. The evidence is in my area and there are a few reputable media outlets like the Globe & Mail, Financial Post and Maclean's Magazine all featuring detail articles on this subject of "speculation".

Justin Trudeau came into the limelight just at the right time. People got tired of Stephen Harper. Trudeau lined his cabinet with some experience. But, he himself is very green and he holds the highest office. He is leaning more to the left than the Liberal centre; running deficits and raising taxes. He will put Canada deeper in debt in the next 4 years with the blessing of the electorate. Maybe by weakening the country financially it will make it less viable to investors.

Australia is a capitalist nation which has adopted a framework for dealing with foreign investors. "The aim of the residential real estate aspect is to encourage increased housing supply through foreign investment and not increase house prices because of over-demand for established housing stock. Increased demand for established housing stock drives prices up for Australian residents - locking some out of the housing market altogether."

May 14, 2016
9:36 pm
Loonie
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If I saw that happening on my street, I'd be worried too, but it has not. There is only one house for sale on my street at the moment, an estate sale. I'll be looking to see what happens to it.
The one beside me sold a year and a half ago to a young couple who have since had a baby. The house has had 5 owners in the years we have been here. They have all had between 1 and 3 children. I do notice more one-child families though.
Meanwhile, options for seniors are not improving. For some reason, they think we all want to live in apartments of one sort or another. No, we like a deck and a patch of grass and the opportunity for a little gardening just like anybody else - now that we finally have the time. We just don't want to have to cut it! No can find; seniors housing is all vertical. Apparently they think we love elevators.

May 15, 2016
10:25 am
kanaka
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Loonie said

If I saw that happening on my street, I'd be worried too, but it has not. There is only one house for sale on my street at the moment, an estate sale. I'll be looking to see what happens to it.
The one beside me sold a year and a half ago to a young couple who have since had a baby. The house has had 5 owners in the years we have been here. They have all had between 1 and 3 children. I do notice more one-child families though.
Meanwhile, options for seniors are not improving. For some reason, they think we all want to live in apartments of one sort or another. No, we like a deck and a patch of grass and the opportunity for a little gardening just like anybody else - now that we finally have the time. We just don't want to have to cut it! No can find; seniors housing is all vertical. Apparently they think we love elevators.

I have to agree. For some reason realtors don't promote small lots and ranchers. They seem to think down sizing is going to a townhouse or condominium. While we live in a home for 4-5 people to live in very comfortably there are only two of us. Privacy is what we like and it is the 4th level of vey often incompetent, annoying and in your mind every day strata management is NOT for us.

PS. In process of removing back lawn and front lawn goes next year.

May 15, 2016
3:42 pm
Loonie
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Most bungalows in TO get torn down for something bigger, or an extra storey is added to the top. It's the density problem again. The land is "too valuable" to just sit there with 2 bedrooms on it. Nobody seems to care if the infrastructure can support all this - until it breaks down.

I know a couple of empty nesters who sold their house for a condo, hated it, sold it, and bought another house! I am sure they lost some money on the deal, but it was worth it to them.

I've been trying to convince a 95-year-old relative who doesn't drive to sell the 3BR house with full basement and double garage and downsize. No luck at all. You know who is going to have to deal with it when it becomes an emergency...sf-frown
But it shows how unpopular the alternatives are with a lot of folks.

If you want to live in a seniors-friendly community that is not condo or apartments, you have to leave the city. There are no options in the city at all.
There was a lovely community of affordable non-profit rental housing in Unionville, just outside the city, which was made up of linked cottages essentially. It worked really well, people helped each other out, and they were happy there. A year or so ago they sold it off to a developer who is putting in condo towers. The old folks all got eviction notices. Nice, eh? After a big hullaballoo, I believe they were told they could move into one of the towers temporarily. These are people who don't have high incomes, many of whom are well over 65 and hardly in the right mental space to give up their homes and security in a place that was purpose-built for people just like them to go to nowheresville. Costs were cited as the problem, but I don't think they tried hard enough to deal with it. Turfing people out when there really is no alternative housing for miles around is not much of an answer. Even if you have more money, there isn't much. The key thing is that this arrangement worked well. There was something to be learned from it, but, instead, it has been eliminated.

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