Rates Going Up? | Page 3 | General financial discussion | Discussion forum

smayer97 said
Until I see evidence that counters the evidence that many have presented that better supports what I can also see and corroborate, I'll stick to that, though always open to be convinced otherwise.  

Just stand at the corner of King and Bay St, and ask every money market and bond traders if they watch the CB announcement like a hawk or not. Based on what you said and if it is indeed true, they should say "why do we care, the CB always just follow what we already priced in, 100% of the time".

See if you can get urself an invite to go to bank's trading floor on a CB date and watch yourself....

mordko said
For example, I bought a 5-year GIC in 2023 with a rate of 5.23%. With under 4% rates available today for 1-year money, looks like my GIC was the right choice at the time.

That said, I have been shortening duration of my fixed income over the last 6 months.  

We can still make over 5% since then in short terms. There was a 5% for 6 months from Saven short time back. I am making 5.25% from Simplii promo. So it has been almost 2 years for you, locking in. So what premium are you expecting for locking in if not 2%? Also please consider the liquidity in short terms, that is invaluable.

AltaRed said
...
My view is this particular assertion/opinion is just another way of trying to be seen as a differentiator (and thus draw eyeballs and followers).  

drawing eyeballs and followers? Do you see me seeking an audience? They way that people can be dismissive simply because they do not agree...

smayer97 said

drawing eyeballs and followers? Do you see me seeking an audience? They way that people can be dismissive simply because they do not agree...  

I was referring to Elliott Wave theorists and backers. A simple Google search brings up many links that mostly debunk its success (accuracy) rate. This discussion was beat to death back in March 2024 or so in a thread you actually started https://www.highinterestsavings.ca/forum/general-financial-discussion/how-does-the-bank-of-canada-and-the-federal-reserve-determine-interest-rate-changes-psa/ Almost no one supports the concept so why not just leave it alone?

Overnight rates are going to be what the BoC and/or US Fed say they are going to be, taking all market information into account. It is only logical market sentiment (guesses) will mostly be coincidental with what central bankers eventually do since it is based on the same data sources, but there will always be surprises now and then when central bankers do not do the expected.

AltaRed said

I was referring to Elliott Wave theorists and backers. A simple Google search brings up many links that mostly debunk its success (accuracy) rate. This discussion was beat to death back in March 2024 or so in a thread you actually started https://www.highinterestsavings.ca/forum/general-financial-discussion/how-does-the-bank-of-canada-and-the-federal-reserve-determine-interest-rate-changes-psa/ Almost no one supports it so why not just leave it alone?

Overnight rates are going to be what the BoC and/or US Fed say they are going to be, taking all market information into account. It is only logical market sentiment (guesses) will mostly be coincidental with what central bankers eventually do since the it is based on the same data sources, but there will always be surprises now and then when central bankers do not do the expected.  

Many of you spend so much time trying to dissuade but provide little substance to support those positions. You seem to think that I am looking for approval, acceptance, agreement, or consensus. I simply present an alternative perspective, that works. And yes, it does work.

If you are relying on Google to direct your financial decisions, all the best to you. It is simply a search engine, not a financial planning, investment guide, or data analyzer. Use the tool for what it is...

And all the "logic" you apply to dissuade my perspective, is it not all about trying to guess the market direction? If not, then why bother having the discussion? Does it is not just make it a bunch of meaningless talk? Pause and think about it.

In the end, the best form of investing or trading is risk management, and trying to find and catch a trend. Otherwise, dollar-cost average is all that makes sense... which has been shown to be mediocre, at best.

mordko said
Does it “work”? You confidently claimed that there will be “another 50 pt drop by end of Jan”.

We’ll see.

On a side note, using market as a timing “strategy” to predict the future is obvious nonsense because whatever market knows is already reflected within asset prices. Its like knowing that a dozen of eggs can be bought for $6 in a grocery shop and claiming that you can make money on it.  

I never claimed anything. I only present what I observe. On Dec 9, I stated that it looked liked things were lining up for another 50 pt drop by Jan '25 (after first a 50 pt drop prior the Dec announcement). And I have been right for every change since the top for over a year (BTW, not trying got say I am special or anything). At this point, it looks like only a 25 pts drop will happen... but the market is still well poised for more drops for a while.

P.S. The one key difference is that I do not need to depend on all the talking points.

(Not sure what happened... my last post was deleted... not sure why. I did not say anything bad. All I said is that you keep building strawman arguments, thinking that I am claiming special insight no one else has... I simply present what others should be able to see also, given a certain lense.)

As for the bond market, then you are likely only following the talking points and are not paying attention to what is actually going on.

you are cherry-picking...even the article you linked to says so...

Not saying that what you are looking at is wrong. BUT you are still being very selective; too much confirmation bias. From the article, "According to the poll's median forecasts, another 25 bps cut will come in March, followed by one more next quarter, taking the overnight rate to 2.50%, below what interest rate futures are now pricing."
But I am not relying on quotes like that at all. Just using it to point out that there is more than one perspective. And from my perspective, short-term rates (3, 6 months; that's all I ever talk about) still look down, for now. That's what influences the CB rates.

You keep misconstruing what I keep saying. Dec 9, I said, it look[ed] like things were lining up for another 50 pt drop by Jan '25. That was based on how the data was presenting itself at that time. Markets are not a static thing. Since then, the market slowed down its progress, though still maintains a strong downtrend, at this time, in spite of short term shift (and the accompanying headlines). Very visible. As I have stated several times before, "The rate will NOT change until there is at least a 25pts differential between the current BoC rate and the short-term bond market".

I only state what I see the market doing. Since the market did not move enough, it is only showing room for a 25 pt drop by the BoC at this time. Simple. This is not based on my interpretation, just simply see where the market is. Period. And as a result, that is why the spin is making the headlines that the BoC will only move 25 pts. Headlines attributed to the BoC are in rearview, but spun to make it look original (easy to see by looking back). And many times market goes a different direction than what the BoC announces and tries to do. But the market determined things ahead of time. You all have said so in oh so many ways. Because it always does, whatever the reasons.

If you get what I say, great. Does not matter. I will continue to present what I see. Everyone can take it as they see fit. Just like everyone can take what you say as they see fit.