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Email this5:03 pm
December 12, 2009
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It's well known that Q1 2020 global GDP numbers will be negative, with the global economy experiencing negative growth or contraction, but with all the cancellations and self-isolating due to COVID-19, brought on by the mass media and trumpeted by the governments, I expect the Q1 2020 GDP numbers to be just brutal...the question becomes not whether Canada will experience a technical recession of two quarters of contraction, but rather, whether Canada will even emerge from a recession at all in 2020.
Just sayin'.
Cheers,
Doug
6:17 pm
October 29, 2017
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Totally agree. And if we emerge from the recession, we will have mounds of more debt and a worse situation than before Coronavirus came around.
7:45 am
October 21, 2013
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Odds are that you are right.
Something odd about his picture:
A virus that will kill a very small percentage of the world's population (primarily elderly and immunocompromised whose life expectancy is already reduced), creates widespread panic, hoarding, and apparently can bring the economy to its knees.
On the other hand, climate change, which threatens the extinction of humanity, is tolerated quite well by the economy.
Conclusion: There's something wrong with the economy.
8:46 am
September 11, 2013
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Completely disagree, Loonie, nothing odd at all. Humans wait until a threat is immediate (otherwise we'd be freaking out all the time) so our response to this virus is appropriate. People not working due to a virus that can/will mutate and whose ultimate mortality rate is unknown tends to bring the economy to its knees on a dime. Climate change is a more gradual (heard about it for decades now, the virus a few months) and contentious issue, the Trudeaus are flying around for personal fun as much as ever, so we're being signalled that it's clearly not an immediate emergency. Unlike the virus could turn out to be.
China's largely state-controlled economy, USA's largely free market economy, all economies in between, all reacting similarly to the virus and climate change. Nothing to do with "the economy".
4:30 pm
October 21, 2013
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I knew I could count on you to disagree, Bill.
The priorities, focus, and indicators for the economy must change, or it will die. What we are seeing now is some of its vulnerabilities, which will be compounded by climate change. By the time the latter becomes "immediate", it will be too late.
I do agree that the virus could and likely will mutate and cause further havoc with unknown numbers of deaths. It's probably already mutating.
But in order to discuss this meaningfully we would need to look at what makes individuals resilient to such infections, apart from age. And that would bring us into lots of other social issues and the economic assumptions that underpin them. So we'd better not go there.
Take it or leave it.
Que sera sera.
4:46 pm
October 29, 2017
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Loonie said
The priorities, focus, and indicators for the economy must change, or it will die.
Right on the mark! as long as money is the focus, it will be more of the same.
There are two strains of this Coronavirus, but no mutation has been reported, yet! I’m sure we will see a mutation eventually.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/
6:22 am
September 11, 2013
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The world may be going to heck but somehow it's comforting that you, Loonie, and I will be 180 degrees opposed, that somethings remain no matter what! I must admit I have an ingrained optimism and excitement about humans (and their "economies", etc), not this society or civilization necessarily, but the ability of SOME humans, the best ones, always, somewhere, to adapt and thrive going forward. Looking at the history of humans on this planet the progress is nothing short of breathtaking, no other animal even remotely in the ball park. I've no idea how it's possible to be anything but inspired and positive about the future, no extinction in my worldview - but I do know cutting CBC out of my life years ago certainly helped my outlook!
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