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Proposed $2,000/month Canada Emergency Response Benefit
April 13, 2020
10:25 pm
Loonie
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The notion that seniors should be raided for their income to pay the national debt is not going anywhere. Every politician in the country knows who votes.

In addition, it's a thinly veiled undermining of our health care system, turning it into some kind of user-pay system, but based on unreliable data about who dies. It's not actually mortality rates that determine costs, but morbidity rates. The people who use up health care funds are alive, not dead, and most survive.
So you should be looking at morbidity stats, at a minimum.
I heard on the news last night that 11% of the cases are health care workers, and almost none of them are senior - for starters. Another significant group work in groceries, and they're not that old either.

A significant number of victims die in long term care homes, and are not costing us any more money because those facilities do not have high-tech equipment or highly trained staff. To be blunt, hey are probably saving the system money because they are dying sooner than they otherwise would have. One of the reasons it spreads so readily in those homes is because they are understaffed, under-resourced, and overcrowded even when functioning optimally.

In my view, a better solution would be a substantial inheritance tax. Although it could be tweaked, I would suggest that all assets be lumped at death of second spouse and taxed at highest marginal rate in the same way that RIFs are. Adjustments could be made for surviving children under 25 in school and for disabled dependents. There would be some money left over for beneficiaries, just not as much.
The advantages are:
*Seniors are not penalized.
*The universality of the health care system is not compromised.
*The debt will get paid as it will yield a substantial amount, death being unavoidable and largely unrelated to the economy.
*Income of seniors who can no longer earn remains available to them to spend (stimulating the economy) or to use for their care - in both cases, spending helps the GDP.
*Minimal burden on the young. They don't have to pay the debt and can get on with living their lives and building their own wealth, not so dependent on mommy and daddy.
Issues: Some provisions would have to be worked out so that the law could not be circumvented by trusts and gifts etc. This plan would be somewhat unpopular among all ages, but I think it could be accepted because it doesn't take away anyone's income or the assets of any living person, and doesn't require the young to mortgage their futures.
Some will be unhappy to see their imagined inheritances reduced, but, in truth, you never know how much you will get until probate and it's best not to plan your life around it. You'll still get some, just not as much, if there are assets bequeathed to you. This helps re-set the field a bit in an era when the increasing gap between rich and poor is a harbinger of future instability which even many rich people realize is a problem.

April 14, 2020
5:20 am
savemoresaveoften
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Its naive to think the young are immune from the virus and "not affected". The young may have a higher rate of survival, less problematic symptoms but thats it. Also the majority of seniors that were killed so far are clustered in senior/ nursing home. If I put a bunch of youngster in similar clustered living space, I am sure the death rate of the young will be a lot higher too.

Most seniors do NOT get their wealth from inheritance. They accumulate their $ thru frugal life style, savings and prudent spending. One cant argue but agree that the young are way more indulgent and less careful with money than the generation before them. That statement is universally true comparing different generations.

The article Bill was referred to mentioned it was the middle age millionaires that quite a few got there from inheritances.

So sorry but targeting the high income senior to pay for the tab is as unacceptable as targeting the 1%. Very socialist thoughts to say the least.

April 14, 2020
6:24 am
canadian.100
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FACT: The Federal Deficit is expected to reach about $185 Billion.
"Seniors" will have to pay their share, based on their taxable income, same as any other segment of the population.

April 14, 2020
7:55 am
Bill
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My proposal had little to do with increased health care costs, it's CERB, emergency wage subsidy, and other help for businesses and out-of-work people that which will be responsible for ballooning the deficit. And Boomers are increasingly outnumbered by non-Boomer voters every day, check out our popular PM's lack of focus on older folks, he's all about youth, he knows the deal.

I do agree with inheritance tax, though that doesn't help pay the money shovelled out the door today for this virus. Inheritance tax is always more palatable, we get to spend what we want (and lord knows there will be a lot of geriatric cruises, etc!) and then when we're done with money someone else takes the hit. Cool, is there a way to structure all taxes to the moment after I'm dead?

Doesn't really matter about how many cases, stats show the young rarely die from this even if they get it. Geez, even 85% of 85 year-olds survive this virus. Notwithstanding media hysteria that's what the stats, which hopefully is what is used for public policy, tell me.

I do agree the young are more profligate, every generation more so than the last it seems. But it's a natural reaction to decades of peace and general prosperity. If I knew my parents had a home worth a million or two plus other investments because both had worked at good jobs for decades my approach to life might have been different too, animals alter behaviour predictably according to their environment.

Seniors, plus workers who keep getting paid (remember, that's a key part of my proposal, not just seniors pay this tax) have had their incomes unaffected due to this virus. That's the premise, it's not fair that only some working people suffer immediate financial pain while the rest of us don't.

April 14, 2020
3:02 pm
Loonie
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canadian.100 said
FACT: The Federal Deficit is expected to reach about $185 Billion.
"Seniors" will have to pay their share, based on their taxable income, same as any other segment of the population.  

This statistic looks scarier than it is.
185B divided by approx 36M Cdns is about $5100 each.
If you used my proposal, you might assume that , allowing for two spouses, some single people, and dependents, it could be about $10,000 per qualifying death.
Obviously these deaths are spread over a long period of time.
But if you institute the inheritance tax to last just until the debt is paid, then I think it would be covered relatively quickly. (Not sure of death rate or of average estate size - would need to be checked.)
Once all that is figured out, I think the debt could go away fairly quickly.

There is no need to focus on people who are able to earn a salary while all this is going on. The ones I know who are earning money are all working for it one way or another.

I do think it would be important to not let the debt accumulate. If additional taxes are necessary, then so be it.

However, I also think we may be jumping the gun. The entire economic landscape is going to look different when this is over, and we really don't know what that will be. Also, at an international level, some things will likely be put in pace to deal with debt somehow.

April 14, 2020
4:25 pm
Kidd
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Loonie...

ah your calculations fail to take into account. provincial debt, municipal debt and personal debt. Now... considering that those under the age of 30 have no intention of ever paying for anything... we owe about a million dollars each, give or take a thousand or two.

April 14, 2020
4:39 pm
Bill
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Norman1, when I read the CERB legislation I read that for every 4-week period you qualify if you are off for 14 consecutive days in the period. So, for example, if you stay home to look after your kids for 2 weeks and then work for 2 weeks my understanding is you can get the CERB every period.

But I keep seeing stuff in gov't websites to the effect that "for subsequent (i.e. after the initial period) periods, you must expect to have no employment or self-employment income." That seems to say that you can't do what I propose in my first paragraph after your first period, you have to expect to have no employment income at all for subsequent 4-week periods. I also see that you can only claim for 4 of the 7 4-week periods to end of September. My problem is I don't see these two restrictions when I read the Motion - ? Any insight?

P.S. Apparently it's also been changed to say you can work up to 10 hours a week and still get it. Again, have you seen any updated proposed legislation on this?

April 14, 2020
5:38 pm
Norman1
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Bill said
Norman1, when I read the CERB legislation I read that for every 4-week period you qualify if you are off for 14 consecutive days in the period. So, for example, if you stay home to look after your kids for 2 weeks and then work for 2 weeks my understanding is you can get the CERB every period.

But I keep seeing stuff in gov't websites to the effect that "for subsequent (i.e. after the initial period) periods, you must expect to have no employment or self-employment income." That seems to say that you can't do what I propose in my first paragraph after your first period, you have to expect to have no employment income at all for subsequent 4-week periods.…

That may be implied by the "ceased working" phrasing. A worker may not have "ceased working" if the worker and the employer have agreed to a two-weeks-on/two-weeks-off schedule.

P.S. Apparently it's also been changed to say you can work up to 10 hours a week and still get it. Again, have you seen any updated proposed legislation on this?

I think that 10 hours a week allowance is still proposed. Prime Minister mentioned it around April 6. But, it hasn't been put into legislation yet.

April 14, 2020
5:50 pm
Norman1
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Loonie said

This statistic looks scarier than it is.
185B divided by approx 36M Cdns is about $5100 each.

I agree. It isn't really that scary.

The federal government normally collects around $220 billion in corporate and personal income taxes each year.

About $20 billion of that $185 billion shortfall was budgeted for anyways.

The remaining $165 billion is an unexpected 165/220 = 75% overrun of one year's worth of income taxes. Just add something like a 6% COVID-19 surtax on federal personal and corporate income taxes for 20 years and it will be paid off.

Lowest federal tax bracket would go from 15% to 15.9%. Top federal tax bracket would go from 33% to 34.98%.

April 14, 2020
5:51 pm
Loonie
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It's all subject to change, kBill, and the regulations haven't come out yet.

Kidd, my proposal was only intended to address the problem which had been raised. Other problems; for other solutions required.

April 14, 2020
6:04 pm
Kidd
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Canadian 100 saying the federal debt is 185 billion, was wrong. that number will be added to our current debt, making the total federal debt very close to a trillion dollars

Canada's federal debt is currently 714 billion.

April 14, 2020
6:17 pm
Bill
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I realize it's in flux, but the legislation as passed is very clear, i.e. if you've ceased working for 14 consecutive days in the initial 4 week period that's what you need. And the commentary re "subsequent periods", i.e. subsequent periods are treated differently than the initial period, has been there from day one despite a complete lack of that idea in the legislation. I'm sure it'll all be clarified at some point but it's interesting to me how this idea arose - ?

Also, an "imported virus" surtax would need to take into account the additional interest on that borrowed money.

April 14, 2020
7:34 pm
Doug
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Kidd said
Canadian 100 saying the federal debt is 185 billion, was wrong. that number will be added to our current debt, making the total federal debt very close to a trillion dollars

Canada's federal debt is currently 714 billion.  

That's correct, and I suspect that will be a lowball figure. Deficit should top $200-300 billion if and when Trudeau does the right thing and expands the CERB eligibility to include ~800,000 Canadians deemed to be ineligible and extends it due to prolonged COVID-19 emergency. Even if things normalize next year, we're still adding ~$50 billion to the federal debt. This is just the government's liabilities; it doesn't include contingent liabilities, such as CMHC and CDIC guarantees, which are easily another $1.5 trillion. It also doesn't include provincial or municipal debt. Add those in and we're probably at $10 trillion.

When Paul Martin left office in early 2006, we had <$500 billion in federal debt. I miss Paul Martin—our best Prime Minister since, well, I'm not sure...probably Pearson, maybe Diefenbaker and St. Laurent.

Cheers,
Doug

April 14, 2020
8:50 pm
toto
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We'll need a finance minister like Paul Martin to guide Canada through what's coming !
Paul Martin should be a mentor to all finance ministers.

April 15, 2020
5:32 am
canadian.100
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Kidd said
Canadian 100 saying the federal debt is 185 billion, was wrong. that number will be added to our current debt, making the total federal debt very close to a trillion dollars

Canada's federal debt is currently 714 billion.  

I did not say the DEBT was $185Billion - I said the DEFICIT would be $185Billion for the FY. (figure was in either the Globe or National Post - not my concoction.)
You are mixing up Deficit and Debt which are not the same.

April 15, 2020
5:54 am
Bill
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Finally found some recent (17 hours ago) commentary (narcity.com) that echoes my read of current legislation: "According to CRA, if you start working after you've gotten a payment but then stop working again, you need to completely re-apply. When you do that, you have to confirm that you won't get employment income, self-employment income and/or provincial or federal benefits related to maternity or paternity leave for at least 14 days in a row during the period you're applying for." I.e. if you work for 2 weeks but are off for 14 days in any period you can apply for that period. And wife tells me Trudeau's going to tweak CERB again soon.

I would guess 95% of Canadians if asked could not articulate the federal debt (or deficit, for that matter) number, if my circle is typical. IMO our voting priorities are determined in the last two weeks before an election as the media directs our attention to its primary issue of choice and, I could be wrong, but I don't recall a federal election where the media made the federal deficit/debt be that determining issue.

April 15, 2020
6:32 am
canadian.100
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Bill said
I would guess 95% of Canadians if asked could not articulate the federal debt (or deficit, for that matter) number, if my circle is typical. IMO our voting priorities are determined in the last two weeks before an election as the media directs our attention to its primary issue of choice and, I could be wrong, but I don't recall a federal election where the media made the federal deficit/debt be that determining issue.  

In the last Ontario election, Kathleen Wynne former Premier was probably kicked out because of her bungling of finances and putting Ontario into both increasing deficit (and debt) positions.
You are correct most Canadians do not know the difference between Deficit and Debt in Govt Finances. But isn't the average Canadian steeped in debt or living from pay to pay anyways?

April 15, 2020
11:02 am
Loonie
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If the idea is that the younger generation is not sufficiently careful abput money and/or is living from paycheque to paycheque, then it follows that they would need emergency funding from the government in these trying times. In that case, given the logic that is usually applied by forum members, it should be them, not seniors, who are on the hook to pay it off.

I'm not saying I necessarily support this idea, but am wondering what those who usually have harsh words for young spenders and also expect seniors to pay for their bailouts would say.

April 15, 2020
12:03 pm
Bill
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Can't speak for others' ideas but my own proposal was that those whose incomes are unaffected by the virus (all private sector workers of all ages who continue to make their money, teachers and other public sector workers who continue to make their money, non low-income seniors who continue to make their money, etc) pay a greater share of CERB, etc, i.e. the extra costs to help those whose incomes are reduced (unable to work or reduced hours) due to this virus.

I'm not sure I've seen anyone here advocate just seniors should pay just young people (plus I'm not even sure there's data that younger people live paycheque to paycheque any more than middle-age or older workers, for example), but even if so I'm pretty sure no-one would agree with that. Mr Trudeau keeps talking about "Canadians", the idea is we're all in this together.

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