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Email this1:55 am
June 28, 2022
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Regarding recessions:
The TL, DR ("Too Long, Didn't Read") is from 6:50-9:05. Recessions are a natural part of economic cycles because we use credit. Not that I want small business owners to lose what they've put hard work into, nor do I want people to lose jobs or suffer hardships, but recessions do weed out (pun intended) unsuccessful and/or over-leveraged enterprises, such as the excess of marijuana stores or cryptocurrency exchanges. As Dalio says, though the precise timing varies, recessions occur naturally and inevitably, regardless of government policy.
5:23 am
March 30, 2017
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Nirvana7734 said
though the precise timing varies, recessions occur naturally and inevitably, regardless of government policy.
It occurs naturally but also because government policy always end up pushing it over the edge one way or the other, coupled with consumer and business practice changes, that its simply impossible to maintain a perfect balance all the time.
Recession is essentially a survival of the fittest mechanism, which is fine with me.
Wipe out by natural disaster etc on the other hand is something I feel about for businesses etc.
9:20 am
January 28, 2015
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"Canadian employment surges in December, expect another BOC rate hike "
Will it be .25 or .5 ,I guessing .25 the BOC will slow down , Inflation seems to holding around 6.8% . Boc wants to see job loses ,not gains
9:26 am
September 11, 2013
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Do you have the break out for private sector employment numbers? That interests me more re the ability of the economy to create new wealth as we could always have 100% employment by putting everyone on a municipal, provincial or federal gov't payroll.
9:28 am
September 7, 2018
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mechone said
"Canadian employment surges in December, expect another BOC rate hike "
Will it be .25 or .5 ,I guessing .25 the BOC will slow down , Inflation seems to holding around 6.8% . Boc wants to see job loses ,not gains
Exactly - BOC wants to see job losses and a recession. The "cure" for inflation - with negative side effects on those Canadians who lose their jobs and their homes.
9:40 am
March 30, 2017
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canadian.100 said
Exactly - BOC wants to see job losses and a recession. The "cure" for inflation - with negative side effects on those Canadians who lose their jobs and their homes.
Canadian payroll estimate has been finicky from day 1. If you go back to economists estimate for the past 10 years+, you will notice they always estimate it to be a number between -10k to +25k 99% of the time. In other words they dont really predict it at all. They just dont know how to predict it properly. 🙂
But yeah BoC would never say it out loud they prefer losses and recession. But thats their only hope of taming inflation, and not have to take rates 6% and beyond.
9:58 am
April 27, 2017
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At this point BoC has little agency of its own. If the Feds raise, BoC has to jump. They could delay this a bit but it would hurt the exchange and cause more Canadian inflation.
11:32 am
September 11, 2013
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Lots of job openings for those who want, anyone loses their job they can get another one, or two if they need even more money. So I can't see unemployment rates going up unless things change a lot.
4:26 pm
April 27, 2017
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One scenario would involve housing and construction crashing. Canada’s employment is quite sensitive; lots and lots of jobs depend on it.
Another scenario has a world-wide recession, reduction in resource prices with loss of jobs in mining, etc.
Not saying it will happen but it might. Tomorrow might look different.
6:14 pm
September 11, 2013
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Agree, housing's big. I think that's the prime driver of higher rates, to try to rein in house price rise and public unrest about it. A few more bucks for food, fuel, etc is not that big a deal, compared to mortgage rates doubling or more. However on the other hand immigration is always going to support housing prices, especially where prices are already highest, so that can always be jacked up even further to support housing construction, etc. Seems like lots of earth's folks would like to come and live here.
8:55 pm
April 27, 2017
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Looking at my crystal ball, doubling of immigration rates should impact housing shortage in places like GTA but unlikely to impact prices right away. Immigrants don’t tend to buy right away; they usually start with rentals. So rents should be impacted but demand for buying would be impacted by immigration rates during Covid and pre-Covid eras.
6:26 am
September 11, 2013
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Depends on the type of immigrants. After WWII influx of Europeans, for example, pretty well all came with nothing, but I get the impression a portion of today's immigrants coming to GTA, Vancouver, etc come with significant dough and buy homes pretty quickly. I stand to be corrected, I don't know the stats.
6:41 am
April 27, 2017
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Bill said
Depends on the type of immigrants. After WWII influx of Europeans, for example, pretty well all came with nothing, but I get the impression a portion of today's immigrants coming to GTA, Vancouver, etc come with significant dough and buy homes pretty quickly. I stand to be corrected, I don't know the stats.
I’ve seen the stats somewhere. After 5 years half buy houses. But not right away. Things can change, of course.
Supposedly Federal and Ontario governments are taking measures to have millions of homes built quickly. I’ll believe it when I see it but there is that scenario out there too. And the Feds are throwing tens of thousands of $s at first time buyers. Lots of factors, lots of uncertainty.
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