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November 2021 Inflation
December 15, 2021
7:02 am
Loonie
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December 15, 2021
11:03 am
Loonie
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From the previous thread on October inflation:

Loonie said
I think it's time to put this thread to bed.
New CPI for Nov is due out today.

We can start a new thread and start arguing all over again with new numbers! What fun! sf-wink

Perhaps there should be a prize for someone who comes up with a new idea and doesn't repeat what they said earlier!  

AltaRed said

Sorry to disappoint but I doubt there will be any prizes. The new thread you just started will have the same arguments. The same >4% YOY numbers will (have to) show up for the next 3-4 months as a few of us have persistently attempted to educate folk on. Anyone in denial of that doesn't understand the math.  

When you declare everyone who disagrees with you to be in denial and that there are no new ideas under the sun, you show yourself to be intractable; and some would say arrogant.
In fact, progress in economics, and in all fields, is made by people who have new ideas and challenge the old ones.

Ir's not a very promising start, if this is going to be the tone in this new thread, but thank you for clarifying your position.
Perhaps it will be a short thread.

December 15, 2021
11:17 am
Vatox
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So the inflation stopped accelerating, but it’s still pounding ‘em.
Sorry Loonie, about adding to the old thread, but I needed to clarify some misguided thoughts. Hopefully they leave the old thread alone.

December 15, 2021
11:49 am
Norman1
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The November 2021 CPI is 144.2.

Prices didn't climb much as they did in October. Prices moved away from the red 6% per annum trajectory and more towards the brown 2.6% per annum trajectory:

Nov2021CPI.png
Just one month of moderation compared to previous month. Not conclusive as to direction.

December 15, 2021
12:06 pm
savemoresaveoften
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I think one of things the 2 diff groups talk about on this site is those that says it is transitory and use the "math" to prove it is really based on a long term 2% average (including quite a few data pts in the last few years when somehow inflation is registering a unusually low number. I meant unusual as in I am seeing higher prices paid in those periods based on my personal consumption).
The other camp (including myself) is using 2021 as the starting point, now look at 5%+ inflation and how long it will be for the long time average with a starting point of 2021 to go back down to 2%. That to me is what really matters, as I am not a statistician or historian. What was the inflation in the past is irrelevant, whether that is good or bad or whatever has no bearing on today and the future, that is the only part that matters.
That is the same as if your boss gave u 10% raise 5 years ago, and then 0% the next 4 years, and claimed its still 2% every year and inline with inflation, will you be happy ??

December 15, 2021
12:49 pm
Loonie
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Yes, cherry--picking start and end dates is a well worn trick used in advertising and to "prove" desired market returns etc. If the most recent year is bad, they emphasize the long term, often going back many decades. If the most recent year is spectacular, then they ignore all those previous years of likely volatiliry. The period that matter s to you is the one YOU are dealing with in your own life.

I won't say the position of the other "camp" is irrelevant, but it has to be understood for what it is - only a part of the story. I do think that in this particular case, when people insist inflation is transitory but refuse to give an end point, that kind of thinking is laughable. "It will cease to be transitory when I say my theory won" is the effective answer. But a lot of people want to know when the pain is going to end, if they are going to have to declare bankruptcy, etc., because they know exactly how long their money will last and how long they can tolerate a cetain amount of inflation. I would call them the prudent marginalized (an sometimes even middle class). I find it both callous and foolish to ignore their math and their perspective, although I am not one of them.

December 15, 2021
1:31 pm
AltaRed
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Loonie said
When you declare everyone who disagrees with you to be in denial and that there are no new ideas under the sun, you show yourself to be intractable; and some would say arrogant.
In fact, progress in economics, and in all fields, is made by people who have new ideas and challenge the old ones.

Ir's not a very promising start, if this is going to be the tone in this new thread, but thank you for clarifying your position.
Perhaps it will be a short thread.  

It is interesting being accused of an intransigent position when the 'other side' of the argument is dug in on social matters that relate to inflation, rather than inflation data itself. Beauty seems to be in the eyes of the beholder depending on which side of the argument one is.

If certain members want to have a social platform along with whatever you call ideas and economic progression to debate those views on the effects of inflation, I would suggest that is a different discussion.

Edited to better reflect what I mean

December 15, 2021
2:00 pm
christinad
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I really don't understand why its such a divisive topic. All I know is when i went to Walmart last week i paid $1.3 for a tomato! sf-laugh

December 15, 2021
2:01 pm
Vatox
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AltaRed said

It is interesting being accused of an intransigent position when the 'other side' of the argument is dug in on social matters that relate to inflation, rather than inflation data itself. Beauty seems to be in the eyes of the beholder depending on which side of the argument one is.

If certain members want to have a social platform/discussion to debate their views on the effects of inflation, I would suggest that is a different discussion.  

Yet you are the one continually saying “they don’t matter” and “it’s their own fault” and “they did it to themselves”. That’s all irrelevant to a non-political discussion. We have the situation and everyone will feel the fallout of high inflation hammering the 53% living on the margins.

December 15, 2021
2:06 pm
AltaRed
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I suspect the data would show that the ~53% will always be the ~53% living on the edge of their pay cheques. The data likely has not changed much in years, i.e. with zero inflation as it almost was much of 2020, the ~53% will continue to spend whatever they make. I suggest that is a different (social) subject.

December 15, 2021
2:08 pm
AltaRed
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christinad said
I really don't understand why its such a divisive topic. All I know is when i went to Walmart last week i paid $1.3 for a tomato! sf-laugh  

It's divisive because I think the attempt is to make this a social discussion rather than simply the price of tomatoes at Walmart and how that changes over time.

December 15, 2021
2:21 pm
Dean
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.
Meanwhile, down in the Divided States Of America . . .

      Dean

sf-cool " Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! " sf-cool

December 15, 2021
2:26 pm
Vatox
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AltaRed said

It's divisive because I think the attempt is to make this a social discussion rather than simply the price of tomatoes at Walmart and how that changes over time.  

And you are the one making it a social issue. You seem to think that your own life functions perfectly regardless of everyone else. That is completely false. If that 53% goes under, I’m quite sure it will have some kind of effect on your harmonious existence. Therefore it’s in your best interest to view the situation as precarious. But you continually view it from your narrow perspective.

December 15, 2021
2:31 pm
Norman1
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savemoresaveoften said
I think one of things the 2 diff groups talk about on this site is those that says it is transitory and use the "math" to prove it is really based on a long term 2% average (including quite a few data pts in the last few years when somehow inflation is registering a unusually low number. I meant unusual as in I am seeing higher prices paid in those periods based on my personal consumption).
The other camp (including myself) is using 2021 as the starting point, now look at 5%+ inflation and how long it will be for the long time average with a starting point of 2021 to go back down to 2%. That to me is what really matters, as I am not a statistician or historian. What was the inflation in the past is irrelevant, whether that is good or bad or whatever has no bearing on today and the future, that is the only part that matters.

Past inflation is highly relevant. It is not the goal of the central banks to ever rollback previous years of on-target inflation.

Consumers got a significant break during 2021 and the first quarter of 2021 on the price of the CPI basket. That break was not targeted to be permanent.

That is the same as if your boss gave u 10% raise 5 years ago, and then 0% the next 4 years, and claimed its still 2% every year and inline with inflation, will you be happy ??

Yes, I would be quite happy. I would be ahead of inflation for years before my living costs caught up with my 10% increase. The difference could be banked or invested. I could be quite ahead of someone who got instead 2% raises in each of those five years.

I understand what the numbers mean and don't mean. Consequently, I'm not fixated on year-over-year salary increases or year-over-year CPI rates.

December 15, 2021
2:32 pm
savemoresaveoften
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christinad said
I really don't understand why its such a divisive topic. All I know is when i went to Walmart last week i paid $1.3 for a tomato! sf-laugh  

the "transitory" guy said u underpaid for ur tomatos the last few years, so you should still be happy paying $1.30 today
🙂

December 15, 2021
2:33 pm
christinad
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Please note i'm not picking sides here. I did notice in one article it listed furniture, food and gas as having the highest inflation. Only one of those categories affects the poor (food inflation) as they would most likely take transit. As has been stated, the food bank helps with that.

December 15, 2021
2:37 pm
christinad
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Just to add i find the attitude to poor people paternalistic overall in this forum. The poor people i know (though not a lot) are quite resourceful and are good budgeters. I think they would rise to the challenge of inflation.

December 15, 2021
2:39 pm
Norman1
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christinad said
Please note i'm not picking sides here. I did notice in one article it listed furniture, food and gas as having the highest inflation. Only one of those categories affects the poor (food inflation) as they would most likely take transit. As has been stated, the food bank helps with that.

Inflation is not even across the entire CPI basket. Gasoline is +43.6% over the year. At the other end, clothing and footwear is just +0.7%.

December 15, 2021
2:49 pm
Norman1
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christinad said
Just to add i find the attitude to poor people paternalistic overall in this forum. The poor people i know (though not a lot) are quite resourceful and are good budgeters. I think they would rise to the challenge of inflation.

They have risen to the challenge. That's likely why there is no significant change in the percentage of people who are less than $200 from insolvency between March 2017 and March 2021, in spite of a 7½% increase in the price of the CPI basket over that time.

December 15, 2021
2:52 pm
Vatox
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Norman1 said
Inflation is not even across the entire CPI basket. Gasoline is +43.6% over the year. At the other end, clothing and footwear is just +0.7%.  

Yep, your individual needs and wants aren’t all the same either, so not everyone feels it the same.

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