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More Inflation
April 8, 2022
11:08 am
Vatox
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On top of the supply chain issues, the lowest unemployment level since 1976 is going to also add to inflation.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jobs-march-canada-1.6413073

April 8, 2022
11:18 am
Bill
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Been saying it for a while, can't find workers, wages are going to go through the roof.

April 8, 2022
1:53 pm
Norman1
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Not necessarily. As price rises, supply also increases.

Jobless rate depends on how many people are considered to be participating in the labour force. Jobless rate can decline with no new jobs if people give up and stop looking for a work.

As wages rise, those disheartened workers could return as "new" workers.

April 8, 2022
2:06 pm
Vatox
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Norman1 said
Not necessarily. As price rises, supply also increases.

Jobless rate depends on how many people are considered to be participating in the labour force. Jobless rate can decline with no new jobs if people give up and stop looking for a work.

As wages rise, those disheartened workers could return as "new" workers.  

Well, supply isn’t increasing because of the Chain problem, have you had a look at the trucking industry lately. And an awful lot of the workers that have left are Baby Boomers, and they aren’t likely to return. That demographic transition will continue for years to come. The economy is likely to shrink in the long term. But inflation is here for a while, until the size of the workforce and economy match and the movement of goods gets streamlined.

April 8, 2022
2:07 pm
Bill
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Not sure about "disheartened" workers or folks giving up finding a job, anybody who wants a job can get these days, so my assumption is the rest just don't need to work. Gov't says we need increased immigration to fill jobs.

April 8, 2022
2:31 pm
cgouimet
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Bill said
Not sure about "disheartened" workers or folks giving up finding a job, anybody who wants a job can get these days, so my assumption is the rest just don't need to work. Gov't says we need increased immigration to fill jobs.  

The unemployment number could also be due to mismatches in qualication or location...

CGO
April 11, 2022
4:21 am
RetirEd
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Increased immigration means more demand for housing.

I am NOT advocating against immigration - most certainly not against refugees needing relief - but our planning needs to take this into consideration. The government is definitely going the wrong way in making more money and incentives available that will only drive prices up! We need to eliminate many of the excessively-favoured incentives to invest in housing. And possibly kill off the REIT market competing for housing.

(Not from the investor's point of view, of course...)
RetirEd

RetirEd

April 11, 2022
4:46 am
savemoresaveoften
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Norman1 said
Not necessarily. As price rises, supply also increases.

As wages rise, those disheartened workers could return as "new" workers.  

Supply is directly driven by demand plus production capacity avail (raw material and labor) than simply a rise in price.

For dishearten workers to return to work, wage has to go up a lot. A mere extra $1-2 an hr won’t cut it. Gig economy permanently change the definition of what working full time means. A young lad would rather be in a gig job for the freedom than a retail store job for the same $.

April 11, 2022
7:01 am
Alexandre
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I think it is too soon to speak of full employment, especially for unskilled labor. Some COVID benefits are still paid and will be till at least May. Let's see what job market is in July 2022.

anybody who wants a job can get these days

I consider myself "skilled labor." When I check LinkedIn for a job position equivalent to mine, I see hiring company getting over 70 applicants in just 3 days.

If I to hire someone to my team as my direct report, equivalent job position just posted on LinkedIn got 160 resumes in 5 days. Not all of them are qualified, of course, but even if HR and myself filter out 90% of applicants at pre-screening, I'll have more than enough left to invite for interview.

April 11, 2022
9:51 am
mechone
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Rumour has it there will be .5 % increase in prime on Wednesday taking it to 1%
Hope so it would be nice to see another rise in interest rates and inflation get under control . Maybe even see 4% in the not so distance future

April 11, 2022
10:14 am
HermanH
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RetirEd said
Increased immigration means more demand for housing.

And everyone conveniently likes to forget that immigrants also have parents and grandparents, who wish to come. This only serves to put additional demands on those services.

April 11, 2022
10:28 am
Bill
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Careers, skilled jobs, are always in varying degrees of demand, depending on supply and demand. I'm saying if someone wants a job to make money (maybe while they're also working on getting their preferred career) then there are lots of them around.

My kids tell me they never have to check LinkedIn, etc, they are being contacted regularly by employee-seekers so at least skilled trades and engineers, especially really dependable and experienced ones, are very much in demand.

April 11, 2022
12:17 pm
mechone
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I can tell you I work as a skilled trade actually a maintenance manager and have been looking for Millwright and Electrician for 6 months . Pay is 40 dollars an hour and I get no one with any skills . The market is so lean I actually get weekly offers to leave. I did put my notice in last year , was given another weeks vacation and 12k to stay plus a bigger bonus to stay

April 11, 2022
1:27 pm
Vatox
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mechone said
I can tell you I work as a skilled trade actually a maintenance manager and have been looking for Millwright and Electrician for 6 months . Pay is 40 dollars an hour and I get no one with any skills . The market is so lean I actually get weekly offers to leave. I did put my notice in last year , was given another weeks vacation and 12k to stay plus a bigger bonus to stay  

As I mentioned, a huge swath has left work to retire early and the size of that demographic is massive, with slim pickings for replacements. The economy has to shrink to accommodate. Or steal someone else from a competitor, as in mechone’s case. Since individual businesses don’t want to shut down, increasing wages, benefits and bonuses Is what we will see in the short term. That’s inflation for a while, until more skilled workers spawn or more businesses shut down. 10k signing bonus for SuperSave Gas truck driver, I think I saw on a commercial. Huge shortages in the trucking industry.

April 12, 2022
4:50 pm
Dean
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.
U.S. Inflation Rate for March now @ +8.5%

BNN Link https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-inflation-quickens-to-8-5-ratcheting-up-pressure-on-fed-1.1751160

Canada's inflation rate for March won't be far behind. I'm guessing it will be close to +7% ... time will tell.

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! " sf-cool

April 13, 2022
1:33 am
RetirEd
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savemoresaveoften: "Gig" jobs mean no benefits or raises, ever, and probably no extra health care or pension. Those with "rating systems" routinely fire everyone who comes in even a bit short of full marks for a single period.

And the biggest "Gigpits" also keep changing the terms and conditions to REDUCE "employee" income, and raise parasitic costs. They're advertising intensely for gisters - an indicator that people are not wanting to keep those jobs, or are being sacked for "low performance."

A full-time job with decent benefits is a thing to be dreamed of. All but one of the people I know who left secure jobs for tempting contract or temporary work ended up very unhappy with their choice. And things will only get worse for them relative to real-jobholders whose positions, benefits and wages increase as they stay longer with one firm.

Of course, nobody's protected from downsizings or business failures.

RetirEd

Oh, look, - etsy just raised its sales commission from 5% to 6.5%, a 25% increase in their rakeoff.

RetirEd

April 13, 2022
6:17 am
Bill
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RetirEd, not so much a dream for the many Canadians in any level public sector job where the gravy, security, time off, pension, etc is (proof: no-one quits), majority of increasingly-socialist Canada GDP is public sector related. Your comments are reflective of private sector, grinds people, unless you're the owner, don't forget about public sector positions.

April 13, 2022
7:12 am
Norman1
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A full-time job is also not just a dream for those who made smarter choices for their careers.

What are the backgrounds of those who have those "gig" jobs? Some fields, like English literature, human resources, marketing, and acting, are overcrowded. People should not spend their years at college or university for a diploma or degree in those areas.

A drama teacher shared how overcrowded acting was. She said every role advertised has at least 100 actors/actresses trying out for them!

It is really not surprising that a college graduate with a diploma in marketing won't find anything. There are marketing folks looking for work who have an MBA degree in marketing and who have also ran their own marketing firm for five years!

April 13, 2022
7:37 am
Alexandre
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Post deleted.

April 13, 2022
7:48 am
MattS
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My two cents
I work for a very large firm where the lowest pay rate is $24 with built in raises to $29 within 4 yrs plus and annual adjustment per year with decent benefits … for well over a year we have not been able to attract and retain people. People don’t want or need a job regardless of what data points show. And I hear the same from every person I know

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