January 2023 Bank of Canada announcement | Page 2 | General financial discussion | Discussion forum

Bill said
To me the chart shows May CPI at 151.9 and December at 153.1, thus CPI increased by .79% (less than 1%) over that time span. Is that what you were pointing out, dommm?  

Yes, the point trying to make was about CPI remaining flat-like and the zero comment is misplaced understanding.

Vatox said

Yes, the point trying to make was about CPI remaining flat-like and the zero comment is misplaced understanding.  

Bill understood.

dommm said

Thanks   

That wasn’t for you dommm. Your statement was:

From May to Dec the CPI was basically zero so we are on track for a much lower CPI if this trend continues.

Which is incorrect. CPI isn’t “basically zero”. The change in CPI is what you meant. Or, as AltaRed said aggregate costs are flat.

It may have been what you meant, but isn’t what you said.

Those who have been following the CPI numbers knew what you meant.

CPI turned the corner in July 2022. It ended the steep 12.8% per annum climb it was on since January 2022 and has been on a 1.2% per annum trajectory since:

If it continues as it has for another six months, then, arithmetically, we will have a year-over-year CPI change of under 2%. That's why the Bank of Canada predictions are not much of a stretch.

Norman1 said
Those who have been following the CPI numbers knew what you meant.  

This forum can have many, other than “CPI Followers”, that may not understand and that is why correction is needed. It isn’t about pointing a finger at those that make mistakes or have an incorrect understanding, it’s about correct information so that others are not given poor direction into new knowledge.
dommm was clearly adamant about his statement and it was simply incorrect. Many of us understood what was meant, but others may take his statement literally word for word and that feeds ignorance.

https://prefblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/inflationProjections.jpg is an interesting chart. It may be that BoC will now have it right if the CPI trends above hold.

Loonie said
I get the feeling my whole life is being manipulated by bankers.  

Owning some shares of the big six might have helped reduce your agony.

mordko said
There is “much of a stretch” because core, median, and trim CPI have shown consistent upwards trend.
…

No, they do not.

The "Consumer Price Index (CPI), all-items excluding eight of the most volatile components as defined by the Bank of Canada and excluding the effect of changes in indirect taxes, seasonally adjusted" shows that core CPI prices have been climbing at 3.7% per annum since June 2022. That's down considerably from their 8.3% per annum climb for a few months before that:

If the current trend is maintained for another six months, the year-over-year core CPI inflation will end up down to around 3.7%.

savemoresaveoften said
That’s still 3.7% vs their current ‘target’ of 2%. …

No, it is not.

The target is the regular total CPI changes, not core CPI changes. Core CPI is intended to avoid reacting incorrectly with interest rate changes to CPI movements from things like tariff hikes that have nothing to do with supply-demand balance:

Measures of inflation
The Bank of Canada aims to keep inflation at the 2 per cent midpoint of an inflation-control target range of 1 to 3 per cent. The inflation target is expressed as the year-over-year increase in the total consumer price index (CPI). The CPI is the most relevant measure of the cost of living for most Canadians because it is made up of goods and services that Canadians typically buy, such as food, housing, transportation, furniture, clothing, recreation, and other items.

The Bank also monitors a set of “core” inflation measures that allow the Bank to “look through” temporary changes in total CPI and focus on the underlying trend of inflation. In this sense, these core measures of inflation act as an operational guide to help the Bank achieve the total CPI inflation target. …