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How the proposed USMCA trade deal helps end the greatest homebuying opportunity in a generation
October 1, 2018
4:58 pm
Top It Up
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From Rob Carrick in the Globe and Mail -

How the proposed USMCA trade deal helps end the greatest homebuying opportunity in a generation

Something to remember about rising rates is that they’re not just costing owners and buyers more money. They’re also signalling the end to the greatest homebuying opportunity in a generation.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/household-finances/article-how-the-nafta-deal-helps-end-a-generational-chance-to-score-big-in-the/

October 1, 2018
6:29 pm
Brimleychen
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For the savers, the action will be the opposite. Don’t go for fix term for 5 years, and keep them at liquidated high interest saving accounts. Wait for banks and credit unions to offer better rates.

October 3, 2018
10:44 am
Blue
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Brimleychen said
For the savers, the action will be the opposite. Don’t go for fix term for 5 years, and keep them at liquidated high interest saving accounts. Wait for banks and credit unions to offer better rates.  

Yes, if the BOC does the expected 3 to 4 increases within the next 10 months, then that would be a 30% to 40% increase in the interest rate. IF the most competitive banks and credit unions follow suit on HISA/GICs rates, then likely we're looking at a "5" handle on savings rates next year. So finally 5% or greater on the horizon. Hopefully!

October 3, 2018
11:33 am
Vatox
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As long as people can continue servicing their debt. It could be a very easy scenario to see rates go back down too. I, of course, want rates to go up, but most people in Canada love their debt and high standard of living. It's a big stretch to expect most Canadians are going to lower their standard of living.

October 3, 2018
12:47 pm
AltaRed
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Blue said

Yes, if the BOC does the expected 3 to 4 increases within the next 10 months, then that would be a 30% to 40% increase in the interest rate. IF the most competitive banks and credit unions follow suit on HISA/GICs rates, then likely we're looking at a "5" handle on savings rates next year. So finally 5% or greater on the horizon. Hopefully!  

Wishful thinking. 4 increases @ 25bp is one percentage point. Hitting 5% on a 5 year GIC would take more than 4 increases and would likely require 6.5% or so 5 year fixed term mortgages (or at least qualifying rate for those going shorter term). Also suggests 5 year GoC bond has to hit 4% or more. Highly unlikely given the deb load of Canadians, corporations AND governments.

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