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Email this7:57 am
March 30, 2017
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mordko said
You can’t “make money” by knowing BoC’s next move a month in advance. Everyone else knows it too, with a high degree of certainty (some exceptions , as always). Its not a secret at all.You can make money if you know forward guidance. Particularly if it has surprises. Thats what markets react to. Surprising guidance isn’t in the short term bond rates.
Sometimes the truth can be painful. If one believes one can, and thats what floats his boat, so be it. After all one can choose to believe in anything, as long as the actions are not against the law.
12:06 pm
September 29, 2017
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mordko said
You can’t “make money” by knowing BoC’s next move a month in advance. Everyone else knows it too, with a high degree of certainty (some exceptions , as always). Its not a secret at all.You can make money if you know forward guidance. Particularly if it has surprises. Thats what markets react to. Surprising guidance isn’t in the short term bond rates.
I guess the tens of thousands I am making as a result of following exactly what I have been describing, not following ANYTHING the CB and pundits are saying, is just a figment of my imagination... I guess I'll enjoy my imagination for years to come...
12:08 pm
September 29, 2017
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FastJonny said
smayer97 said
I'll point out that none of these are my original thoughts...these are based on years of research and well presented cases by other published experts that show this to be highly reliable.
Please cite your 'well presented cases' by other published experts.
Thanks.
Elliott Wave International is one such organization that has several experts, and they have published a lot of well documented material on this topic.
1:03 pm
October 27, 2013
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Ahhh, the famous Elliott Wave Theory, aka Technical Analysis investing. It has its fervent believers. Much has been written on it, for and against. Enough said.
1:53 pm
September 29, 2017
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AltaRed said
Ahhh, the famous Elliott Wave Theory, aka Technical Analysis investing. It has its fervent believers. Much has been written on it, for and against. Enough said.
Except no EW theory is necessary in this case except understanding the idea of analysing price action and what it captures in general.
2:35 pm
February 20, 2022
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smayer97 said
No, I "cannot" be bothered to do the work for you., especially to such a disinterested party. It "appears" you cannot be bothered either. The source records are there for anyone to see.
I do not need any "luck"... like I said, I'm quite happy to be making the money I am as a result of this understanding and application ... I am just sharing insights I have learned for anyone else to do as they please with it. That is the whole point of this forum. No one is requiring you to agree with anything. But it is not necessary for you to be so condescending.
I have done the work. There is nothing in the previously mentioned charts etc. that supports your 'insights' about the BoC.
I too am here to learn, this is why I asked you for sources, to help, as all the information presented here does not seem to support your posting.
I am not here to try and convince you of anything. It appears to me that it you who are trying to convince people. So this is why I ask for proper studies/articles.
3:02 pm
September 11, 2013
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tens of thousands, now we're talking, smayer97.
Can you give the details of one your successful moves, i.e. what short-term bond market info came to your attention, and then what specific moves you made based on that information, showing clearly how you made material profits due to you discerning that specific information? Just one example should suffice to illustrate.
And I'm sure a lot of others on here would like to learn too. That would be great, thanks.
3:35 pm
September 29, 2017
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See post #25.
4:19 pm
October 27, 2013
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Why not give it up already? You are flogging a dead horse.
4:50 pm
September 11, 2013
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smayer97, your post #25 indicates to me that you were able to identify the peak of long term gic rates from short-term bond market rate moves, do I have that correct?
5:01 pm
April 27, 2017
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smayer97 said
I guess the tens of thousands I am making as a result of following exactly what I have been describing, not following ANYTHING the CB and pundits are saying, is just a figment of my imagination... I guess I'll enjoy my imagination for years to come...
An absolute number does not tell me anything at all but lets play regardless.
Since when did you make “tens of thousands” exactly? Seem to recall 3 months GOC yields peaked around October, right?
My boring 70/30 portfolio does not change one bit regardless of bond yields. A small portion is in a 5-year GIC ladder. I don’t move a finger, whenever yields change. To be fair, I ignore CB and pundits too. Since October “I made” around 250K, just from the market. And I am fairly confident some in this chat “made” 7 digits over the same time span. Can’t say I am jumping up and down, trying to glean secret knowledge from the “tens of thousands” you are making from gics. A 6% GIC does not sound all that exciting once you subtract taxes and inflation. I use GICs as a psychological crutch. A percent here or there is nice but does not matter in the big picture
6:04 pm
September 29, 2017
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mordko, I am very happy for you that you "made" 250K since Oct. I wish I could make that kind of money is such short time. And I am glad you have a portfolio balance and strategy that work for you. This thread is not about one-upmanship. My number was simply to point out that the impact of my decision-making was not insignificant, at least for me. It is all relative.
It seems to me that you are too caught up with the numbers. Again, the point of this thread is in the context of this forum, which is focused primarily on interest-bearing vehicles, primarily being HISAs and GICs. In that vein, I am highlighting an insight I believe can help some who are willing to consider it. If it adds no value to you, no need to participate.
People may have differing opinions on this issue. I have no qualms with that. But all the evidence I have been seeing over recent years only keeps reconfirming to me what I have presented. But that is the beauty of diverse investing techniques... you act on what you see.
6:10 pm
September 29, 2017
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Bill said
smayer97, your post #25 indicates to me that you were able to identify the peak of long term gic rates from short-term bond market rate moves, do I have that correct?
In short, yes. But what I looked at is the historical tendencies and market behaviours in price action over decades. As such, I felt quite confident in locking in for longer than I would typically, as everything points down or at least flat for a reasonable season. I recognize it is a probabilities game, and nothing is certain or truly predictable but patterns are helpful guides.
6:19 pm
April 27, 2017
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The point is that you didn’t “make” anything based on knowing short term bond rates. When a boring balanced portfolio gives you… lets say 10%, in 6 months, “making” 3% (6 months, 6% GIC) is a loss.
Bond yields is somethIng the whole world is very aware of. You can’t “make” a dollar over Mr Market when using common knowledge data.
And as noted by Bill, when short term yields peak, you glean relatively little about 5 year GICs.
This site is focused on getting the best yield for various FI products at a given time, which is helpful, rather than on proselytizing about “how to guess the future” which is useless.
8:53 pm
September 29, 2017
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You are mixing purposes... portfolio balancing, etc. is all about strategies for maximizing yield, and then talking about making more than the market, etc. This thread is about pointing out information as a tool... what one does with it is up to each one.
This site may well discuss best yields, etc. but arguing about approach A being able to yield more than approach B is not what this thread is about.
And I still submit that you can have a very highly accurate "guess to the future" based on the info here.
I see that you're not sold... so, I guess you will not be joining my church of the Seers of the FedBoC. Shucks :'(
2:48 am
August 30, 2023
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smayer97 said
I guess the tens of thousands I am making as a result of following exactly what I have been describing, not following ANYTHING the CB and pundits are saying, is just a figment of my imagination... I guess I'll enjoy my imagination for years to come...
WOW so to confirm, are you making tens of 000s in short term bond trading? And what kind of bonds? Just 1 example of a bond symbol & name please.
And so it looks to be much more lucrative than stocks?
I am asking as I have never traded bonds. Just bought a couple of ISAs last week, which are not bonds though.Thanks
1:29 pm
March 30, 2017
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smayer97 said
I guess the tens of thousands I am making as a result of following exactly what I have been describing, not following ANYTHING the CB and pundits are saying, is just a figment of my imagination... I guess I'll enjoy my imagination for years to come...
What you are following / describing is 100% the result of what CB and pundits said.
Sounds like you are 100% a chart person, use Elliot Wave, correlation and whats not to explain what the market had done, and use that to "predict" the future.
Elliot wave and ichimoku clouds are more used by FX traders. Interest rate traders dont use neither, cuz the bond market is 100% driven by fundamental, one is foolish to use the past to predict the future in the rates world.
Anyone can use technical chart analysis for their decision making, but on multiple occasions, you have been saying CB ALWAYS only follow bonds market rate move, which is just complete non sense.
1:38 pm
February 7, 2019
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savemoresaveoften said
What you are following / describing is 100% the result of what CB and pundits said.
Sounds like you are 100% a chart person, use Elliot Wave, correlation and whats not to explain what the market had done, and use that to "predict" the future.Elliot wave and ichimoku clouds are more used by FX traders. Interest rate traders dont use neither, cuz the bond market is 100% driven by fundamental, one is foolish to use the past to predict the future in the rates world.
Anyone can use technical chart analysis for their decision making, but on multiple occasions, you have been saying CB ALWAYS only follow bonds market rate move, which is just complete non sense.
I believe it's time to leave the party of the other part fester in "their" faiy tales ...
| CGO |
1:47 pm
September 29, 2017
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@zgic No... I am not trading bonds. As I mentiond, I used the info about the bond market to guide my view about interest rates, and purchased GICs.
2:05 pm
September 29, 2017
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savemoresaveoften said
What you are following / describing is 100% the result of what CB and pundits said.
Sounds like you are 100% a chart person, use Elliot Wave, correlation and whats not to explain what the market had done, and use that to "predict" the future.Elliot wave and ichimoku clouds are more used by FX traders. Interest rate traders dont use neither, cuz the bond market is 100% driven by fundamental, one is foolish to use the past to predict the future in the rates world.
Anyone can use technical chart analysis for their decision making, but on multiple occasions, you have been saying CB ALWAYS only follow bonds market rate move, which is just complete non sense.
It is much simpler than that. I also read your other reply on the other related thread here. But as I said there, it does not matter what the CB wants to do or happen. The market has to move to accommodate and if it does not, the CB will not change rates beyond what the market moves. So I submit that to see what the CB will most likely actually do, the chart is the best indicator.
It's like I described here, the actual price (rate) is determined by the Bid matching the Ask. Until then, there is no movement. The CB may be placing their "Ask" but the market is placing their "Bid". And the charts capture the result, which is what matters, because that is actionable...
Please write your comments in the forum.