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Historic inflation in Canada
February 13, 2022
11:42 am
Loonie
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Can anyone tell me if this site is reliable? I can't seem to find a similar govt site.

https://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/canada-historical-inflation-rate/

February 13, 2022
12:00 pm
Kidd
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February 13, 2022
1:30 pm
Bill
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Bank of Canada has data back to Jan 1 1996.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/inflation-control-target/

There's also some StatsCan data, 3 measures of core inflation starting Jan 1990 if you customize the table:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810025601

April 20, 2022
12:27 am
Loonie
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The other day I pulled out some old statements from ING. I couldn't find the ones from 2000 on. The most recent one I found was Feb 1999. You could call me a packrat, but every so often such things are useful.
I'm trying to get some perspective on today's interest rates and the relationship with inflation rates.

In Feb 1999, ING was paying me 4.2% on a basic savings account, no promos or BS.

According to this inflatin chart, https://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/canada-historical-inflation-rate/ , inflation that month was 0.7%, and for the entire year it did not exceed 2.6%.

In other words, a basic savings account at the kind of FI we like to discuss on this forum was paying significantly more than the rate of inflation.

In the past I did not have much trouble staying ahead of inflation and even taxes although tax rates are variable. But if you're getting interest at twice the rate of inflation or more, taxes and inflation need not be a concern.

Nowadays, with inflation around 6%, we are made to be grateful for much smaller crumbs well below inflation. Some of us get excited when a rate of any kind hits 3 or 4% while most 'high interest' savings accounts are paying around 1.5%.

I am very unwilling to settle for GICs that aren't EVEN keeping up with inflation since clearly they could in the past.

But I wonder what is causing this huge discrepancy and whether it is likely that it will ever go back to what it was and, if so, when. It feels like rates are being artificially held down, likely because of the cost of debt which is hard to manage, but that doesn't strike me as an adequate explanation.
My personal feeling about inflation is that it is here to stay, quite possibly for the rest of my olife, which may be shorter than yours.

Can anyone shed light in terms I can understand? Please don't talk in economists' jargon as I can't follow it. And pleaxe avoid political finger-pointing as that is not productive.

April 20, 2022
3:08 am
cgouimet
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Some us recall the BoC Rate reaching 20% in 1981. Then that rate dropped gradually to 13-14% in 1990 and 2-3% by 2018.

Generally through all that, central banks have tended to manage interest rate policies like we're supposed to drive with summer tires on black ice .... Slow and easy so as not to lose control and trigger violent irreversible reactions. The one exception that comes to mind is Q1 2020 when the banks drove rates to near 0 to stabilize the pandemic global economy.

Now we're starting to see increases to restore inflation to somewhere about 2% but the moves will be "slow".

I'm sure it'll be too slow for savers and too fast for borrowers but eventually we'll get to some reasonable inflation/interest combination.

I'm also sure, even more sure, that there are more opinions than economists and qualified pundits as to when and what that inflation/interest combination looks like ...

CGO
April 20, 2022
5:15 am
Bill
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1st world people for some time have elected only governments that will "print money" (there are various ways to do this) whenever needed else those governments are tossed for those who will spend. And a world flush with cash results in savers' cash not being as valuable, as sought after, what savers have to offer is just not that rare, thus the spreads are narrower. That's my grade 3-level sense, I could be totally clued out.

April 20, 2022
9:02 am
AllanB
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I won't buy a 5yr Gic again until there is stability. Even 1yr makes me nervous when they show such disregard.

April 20, 2022
11:18 am
Loonie
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What would happen if we all went "on strike" and refused to buy five year GICs unless we got a decent rate? Norman1 assures me that a mortgage can't be issued without corresponding term deposit (although I doubt this as I've never heard of one being turned down for lack of matching GIC at that moment).
Why is it that everyone else gets to dictate their price and shrug their shoulders and say "it's inflation" but we can't? This seems to have been the case regardless of the amount of money out there as I've never heard of depositors doing this.

April 20, 2022
11:48 am
AllanB
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Loonie said
What would happen if we all went "on strike" and refused to buy five year GICs unless we got a decent rate? Norman1 assures me that a mortgage can't be issued without corresponding term deposit (although I doubt this as I've never heard of one being turned down for lack of matching GIC at that moment).
Why is it that everyone else gets to dictate their price and shrug their shoulders and say "it's inflation" but we can't? This seems to have been the case regardless of the amount of money out there as I've never hard of depositors doing this.  

Hold the line Loonie I agree.

April 21, 2022
5:58 am
BlueSky
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Loonie said
What would happen if we all went "on strike" and refused to buy five year GICs unless we got a decent rate? Norman1 assures me that a mortgage can't be issued without corresponding term deposit (although I doubt this as I've never heard of one being turned down for lack of matching GIC at that moment).
Why is it that everyone else gets to dictate their price and shrug their shoulders and say "it's inflation" but we can't? This seems to have been the case regardless of the amount of money out there as I've never heard of depositors doing this.  

Investor power. Can anyone imagine a unionized/collective of investors that could bargain rates?

April 21, 2022
10:41 am
Alexandra
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I have so many GIC's coming due this year. Frustrating and I actually feel almost frozen as to making any short or long term decisions on GIC's or indeed any investment.
I did purchase some 5yr GIC's paid out annually with CIBC awhile back. I don't mind that because of the necessary spread of funds. So at least those funds are as safe as can be being in one of the big 5.

The rest though? Really mind boggling as to what to do. I've got the Tangerine 2.88% til the end of August. I think it is Haventree who have the 3.38% for one year with GIC direct. I'll probably go with that or the equivalent in a couple of weeks. But then the max for them would be $96,500. The rest as they come due probably just put in the best HISAs that are available at the time and 1yr terms with other FI's if rate is 3% or greater.

There is just no historical data that I can see to assist in the best way to invest at this time. Housing will probably start to go down. Maybe 20% this year? But then that would still be less than it went up in the past 12 months. Who knows what to do. sf-surprised

April 21, 2022
2:20 pm
Loonie
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I agree; it's very difficult.
One thing that has come to my attention is that while we keep our money short, in HISA promos etc., bankers are using that to make profitable loans. One of he CU CEOs said as much recently at an AGM. If they keep their HISA rate attractive enough, we will stay there longer and it costs them a lot less than longer GICs. I don't know if this is a good way to run a FI but I can see how it impacts us. I guess it at least funds their variable rate loans.

I still intend to wait until end of year to decide unless something more pressing comes up. At worst, I would lose a bit if rates pull back, but i doubt they will so seems a good bet. If rates go to, for example, 5%, then 4% will still seem relatively good and much higher than January's 3 or 3.25
But I must admit I am not comfortable with locking money away right now at all. I just wish I had a better idea.

April 24, 2022
12:35 am
HermanH
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Did anyone notice how this broker has 3-yr higher than -4 and -5?

GIC Direct 3.38 3.65 3.90 3.85 3.85

Looks like the issuer is expecting things to return to normal inflation of about 2-3% within 3 years. Anyone else have an interpretation?

April 24, 2022
7:29 am
Norman1
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It is more likely that the issuers want more three year money and don't want much four year and five year money right now.

LBC Digital and MCAN Mortgage have the same bump in the middle of their GIC yield curve:

Issuer 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years
LBC Digital 2.90 3.55 3.80 3.45 3.60
MCAN Mortgage 2.90 3.55 3.80 3.75 3.75

GIC issuers are usually lenders. They don't really care about inflation. They make their profit from the spread between the loans and the GIC's that fund the loans.

April 24, 2022
10:10 am
AllanB
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BlueSky said

Investor power. Can anyone imagine a unionized/collective of investors that could bargain rates?  

Count me in! Also, there should be a counterweight on the board of the Bank of Canada to represent the interests of savers.

April 25, 2022
2:22 pm
RetirEd
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The market is the realization of investor moods and behaviour. Any attempt to organize it would destroy that market balance and very likely upset the economic system.

Look at how investment firms, bank, trust companies, ETFs, mutuals, credit unions and brokers have already changed the way investing works. We have and are exercising our power.

I think it mostly the real-estate market that is severely manipulated. There's been no success in breaking the hold of the real-estate industry, their market and industry groups being so powerful as to fight off or co-opt all efforts to clean it out.
RetirEd

RetirEd

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