Deflation is here | General financial discussion | Discussion forum

Please consider registering
guest

sp_LogInOut Log In sp_Registration Register

Register | Lost password?
Advanced Search

— Forum Scope —




— Match —





— Forum Options —





Minimum search word length is 3 characters - maximum search word length is 84 characters

No permission to create posts
sp_Feed Topic RSS sp_TopicIcon
Deflation is here
May 20, 2020
11:52 pm
Vatox
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 1218
Member Since:
October 29, 2017
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
May 21, 2020
5:27 am
Bud
Member
Banned
Forum Posts: 1375
Member Since:
February 20, 2018
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

Im thinking about another interest spike deflation or not due to inept handling of the situation

May 21, 2020
6:10 am
Bill
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 4013
Member Since:
September 11, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

What happens with indexed pensions, and OAS, etc, with deflation? Things are getting cheaper, shouldn't they be decreased?

May 21, 2020
8:01 am
cruzinalong
Ontario
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 223
Member Since:
April 15, 2020
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

Bill said
What happens with indexed pensions, and OAS, etc, with deflation? Things are getting cheaper, shouldn't they be decreased?  

THE OAS is adjusted quarterly in January, April, July and October based on CPI of previous quarter. IF CPI is zero/negative there is no change to OAS. It remains the same until CPI exceeds previous high. The CPP is adjusted annually in January. I have no comment on indexed pensions.

May 21, 2020
9:21 am
Vatox
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 1218
Member Since:
October 29, 2017
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

It’s just one month of deflation. And a very low amount. It will need to continue each month and pick up greater speed if it’s going to have a decreasing impact on indexed values. The effect on TFSA contributions could be lasting. If the deflation continues and increases, it would be interesting if our TFSA limit decreases.

May 21, 2020
11:25 am
Bud
Member
Banned
Forum Posts: 1375
Member Since:
February 20, 2018
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

vatox when shall the stock market expect the end of the world.

May 21, 2020
12:06 pm
Vatox
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 1218
Member Since:
October 29, 2017
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

Bud said
vatox when shall the stock market expect the end of the world.  

Lol, I have no idea.

My stocks portfolio is currently holding about 3% of what I had invested 2 years ago. I’ve been selling for two years, so I figured it was going to be “End of Days” a while back.

May 21, 2020
12:35 pm
Loonie
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 9384
Member Since:
October 21, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

I can't read the OP.
However, I imagine the extremely low price of oil has a lot to do with it, and that will not last.

May 21, 2020
1:25 pm
Vatox
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 1218
Member Since:
October 29, 2017
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

Loonie said
I can't read the OP.
However, I imagine the extremely low price of oil has a lot to do with it, and that will not last.  

Yes, excluding energy, inflation is 1.6%.

May 21, 2020
1:26 pm
Vatox
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 1218
Member Since:
October 29, 2017
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

Sorry Loonie, here is the link to the full report.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200520/dq200520a-eng.htm

May 21, 2020
4:09 pm
Loonie
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 9384
Member Since:
October 21, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

thx

May 21, 2020
5:48 pm
cruzinalong
Ontario
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 223
Member Since:
April 15, 2020
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

Vatox said
It’s just one month of deflation. And a very low amount. It will need to continue each month and pick up greater speed if it’s going to have a decreasing impact on indexed values. The effect on TFSA contributions could be lasting. If the deflation continues and increases, it would be interesting if our TFSA limit decreases.  

They will hold at $6,000.

There are plenty of people that do not contribute the maximum. Everyone is UNIQUE.

May 21, 2020
5:51 pm
cruzinalong
Ontario
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 223
Member Since:
April 15, 2020
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

Vatox said

Lol, I have no idea.

My stocks portfolio is currently holding about 3% of what I had invested 2 years ago. I’ve been selling for two years, so I figured it was going to be “End of Days” a while back.  

My portfolio is almost 100% stock. I know many that claim they are 100% stock.

May 21, 2020
6:38 pm
Bill
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 4013
Member Since:
September 11, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

Not so sure about the $6000 TFSA limit holding, my reading of Income Tax Act 117.1(1)(b)(ii) is that that could be a negative number, so enough deflation could eventually cause a drop. But I'm not 100% sure, happy to be corrected.

May 22, 2020
8:16 am
Norman1
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 7142
Member Since:
April 6, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

Bill said
Not so sure about the $6000 TFSA limit holding, my reading of Income Tax Act 117.1(1)(b)(ii) is that that could be a negative number, so enough deflation could eventually cause a drop. But I'm not 100% sure, happy to be corrected.

I didn't see an obvious floor of zero on the Income Tax Act 117.1(1) annual adjustments calculated with September 30 CPI.

Without such a floor, the TFSA contribution room handed out each year, by the definition of "TFSA dollar limit" in 207.01 (1), and things like personal amount could go down if the year-over-year CPI change is negative in September.

May 22, 2020
12:09 pm
Loonie
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 9384
Member Since:
October 21, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

I was under the impression that the limit could only move in increments of $500 and when inflation changes totalled a certain amount, typically taking several years. Would that still be the case? We must have some inflation credits, so to speak, as the limit did not increase for this year.
(FWIW, I think the current deflation report is an aberration due to unimagined temporary low oil prices.)

May 22, 2020
12:19 pm
Bill
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 4013
Member Since:
September 11, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

Yes, that would be the case, the calculation is the same, up or down. So it would take a time of sustained deflation to use up the "inflation credits" and then accumulate enough more deflation to go down by $500, in the absence of falling-off-the-cliff deflationary economic series of events.

May 22, 2020
12:34 pm
Norman1
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 7142
Member Since:
April 6, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

There may only be $250 of "inflation credits". Something like $1 of deflation would bring the balance to $249 and trigger a rounding down to $5,500.

The exact TFSA contribution room given out, prescribed in the Income Tax Act, is $5,000 in 2009 adjusted for inflation and rounded to a multiple of $500:

TFSA dollar limit for a calendar year means,

(d) for each year after 2015, the amount (rounded to the nearest multiple of $500, or if that amount is equidistant from two such consecutive multiples, to the higher multiple) that is equal to $5,000 adjusted for each year after 2009 in the manner set out in section 117.1

May 22, 2020
2:00 pm
Vatox
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 1218
Member Since:
October 29, 2017
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

The 2019 indexation value, which was used for the 2020 TFSA contribution limit, was $5958. It would take at least 3.5% deflation for all of the 2020 indexation factor to drop back to $5500. We already have plenty of months with inflation starting from October 2019. The remaining five months left would have to be nasty deflation numbers.

May 22, 2020
3:06 pm
mechone
Ontario
Member
Members
Forum Posts: 178
Member Since:
January 28, 2015
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline

Really you could have fooled me "Deflation" gas is 95 cents a liter in GTA oil is 30 bucks a barrel . If oil were to go back to 60 dollars a barrel ,would that mean 1.90 a liter ? Before this happened oil was at 60 and we were paying around a 1.20
Food prices have gone thru the roof , deflation fake news

No permission to create posts

Please write your comments in the forum.