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CIBC Sees Canadian Dollar Falling to 15-Year Lows on Weak Exports
February 19, 2019
10:20 am
Top It Up
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From Bloomberg News -

CIBC Sees Canadian Dollar Falling to 15-Year Lows on Weak Exports

The Canadian dollar may need to fall to the lowest levels in at least 15 years to allow exporters to drive the nation’s expansion, according to CIBC Capital Markets.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-19/cibc-sees-canada-dollar-falling-to-15-year-lows-on-weak-exports

February 19, 2019
11:18 am
Kidd
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I have a question...

Is CIBC's outlook concerning our Canadian dollar the opinion of their advisOrs, or advisErs? My blood pressure still hasn't come down after reading that "O" "E" thread.sf-surprised

http://www.cbc.ca/player/play/.....711427890/

February 19, 2019
1:08 pm
Vatox
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Of course they say the dollar needs to fall. There isn’t anything left to spur the economy. Consumers, corporations, businesses, governments are all tapped out and loaded with debt from an extremely long period of super low interest rates.

At this point in a growth cycle, companies generally invest money to expand, upgrade and hire workers to create better efficiency of production. But the money for expansion was spent on stock buybacks and dividend increases. And hiring more workers is super hard in this 40 year low unemployment condition.

The only thing left is for a low currency to make our exports more desirable.

February 19, 2019
2:30 pm
Loonie
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Inflation to follow, then higher interest rates but stagnant or reduced buying power. - at least in my crystal ball.

On the other hand, this may be an outlier position. The article also says "The median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News in recent weeks is for the dollar to average C$1.26 per U.S. dollar in 2020."

February 19, 2019
7:25 pm
Vatox
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If the global economies don’t get their acts together, the ultimate enemy will be deflation, which comes after the initial fallout. And the downward spiral of dealth, from deflation, will create global economic devastation.

Personal gains have led economies to abandon the 2 centuries old concept of comparative advantage and opportunity cost. The return to proven sound economics is what’s needed.

February 20, 2019
5:36 am
Rick
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And then there's this from the same article:

Contrary to CIBC’s call, many analysts expect the Canadian dollar to strengthen over the next year. The median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News in recent weeks is for the dollar to average C$1.26 per U.S. dollar in 2020.

Pick your horse and place your bets.

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