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Canada bank rate higher than U.S. doesn't add up
January 17, 2020
10:40 am
Bud
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Canadas economy employment is worse so thankfully how can its bank rate be higher? My only conclusion is a lack of confidence politically cause fundamentally canada is worse off in every way.

January 17, 2020
11:31 am
savemoresaveoften
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Canada employment growth for the past year is way better than US. Where do you see Canada being worse ??

January 17, 2020
12:44 pm
Rick
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This is the only reason rates aren't going up.
https://www.debtclock.ca/

Gov pays more when the rate goes up.
Spending goes down
Tax income goes down so Taxes go up
Cost of everything goes up

Don't worry ...Trudeau only added, what...10 billion defecit to the total this year?
Our great grand kids will be happy to pay that off for us while we keep adding debt to satisfy special interest groups, political largess and self interest.
Rue the day those decisions come home to roost.

January 17, 2020
1:17 pm
Vatox
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Where is Canada’s rate higher?

January 17, 2020
2:49 pm
Rick
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Vatox said
Where is Canada’s rate higher?

Bank of Canada rate is currently 2%
Federal Reserve is 1.75%
They're only 22 Trillion in debt right now. If Trump Brow-beats the fed to drop it more, Canada would most likely have to follow.
Interesting chart. Shows how their debt has grown since 1789, who was president at the time, and how it changed year by year.
http://www.polidiotic.com/by-t.....t-by-year/
Lincoln was the first to break a billion, Wilson took it fro 3 to 25 billion, FDR took it from 22 to 201 billion, Reagan broke a trillion and took it to 2.5 trillion, Gee Dubya went from 5.8 to over 10 trillion, Barak almost doubled it to 20 trillion, and Trump seem to be adding a trillion a year.
How long before the bubble bursts?

January 17, 2020
4:15 pm
Loonie
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As the old song goes, "a dollar ain't a dollar any more".

January 17, 2020
7:42 pm
Bud
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Canada unemployment rate 2% higher than U.s.

January 17, 2020
10:23 pm
Vatox
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I was under the impression both the BoC overnight rate and the FED Funds rate were both 1.75%

January 18, 2020
12:31 am
Loonie
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BofC announcement next week, I believe.

January 18, 2020
8:26 am
mechone
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Where do you get your info?
Current bank of Canada rate is 1.75
Current U.S federal rate is 1.75
Traditional for years Canada's bank rate was .5 % higher than U.S rate to keep the dollar worth something . Then came the petro dollar . If Canada lowered its rate the dollar will drop and trump will come after us for currency manipulation. That's my
opinion and if the economy dumps they then need to lower it , it's healthy right now.

January 18, 2020
9:58 am
Vatox
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That’s right mechone, the 2.0% that was mentioned is the BoC Bank Rate, which is different from the overnight rate. The Bank Rate is for money lent to FIs by the BoC and is higher because the central bank wants FIs to lend to each other. In the U.S. the correct comparison, to the Bank Rate, is called the Discount Rate and is currently 2.25%(primary).
Too many times I’ve seen people on this site report incorrect information and they convey it as though they completely know how it works.

January 20, 2020
6:14 am
savemoresaveoften
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Bud said
Canada unemployment rate 2% higher than U.s.  

Thats a poor measure. That headline figure is NOT a measure of real economy for quite a while now.
What matters is job growth and Canada has been stunning last 2 years compared to the US. Also look up different measures of employment data which are more relevant than the headline unemployment rate.

January 20, 2020
7:42 am
Bill
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I don't really follow this closely, others know much more than me, but it seems to me it's actually very easy to create jobs in Canada: I'd just continually borrow lots of money and run big deficits to hire public sector workers (workers and their unions would support me at election time, bonus!) and to otherwise juice the economy. Done, everybody working & loving me.

From a National Post Bloomberg article re September 2019 gains: "While the gains were all full-time, they were entirely public-sector positions and self-employed. Private sector jobs dropped by 21,000, with continued weakness in goods-producing industries...…...September’s gains were led by the health care sector, which produced 30,000 jobs; the information sector led losses".

January 22, 2020
9:51 am
Vatox
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Low unemployment rates can drive up wages, which can hurt businesses. Productivity and efficiency decline as output gap increases. 5% is a healthy unemployment rate.

January 22, 2020
10:46 am
Bill
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The unemployment rate in Canada is calculated as the # of people actively seeking work over total labour force numbers, I believe. Macleans had an article in mid-2018 arguing a better statistic is needed as there are two recent statistical factors driving down the rate: "Since the Great Recession of 2008, however, things have gotten complicated. Many Canadian youths became discouraged and either went back to school or gave up trying to find a job...…..Meanwhile, many aging Baby Boomers decided to ease their way into retirement by working part-time or on contract. These two trends have pushed down labour market participation rates, and with it the unemployment rate." I don't know if it's true, that's what that article said.

In my personal sphere the young folks I see that have work ethic and an in-demand degree or certification of some kind seem to be doing quite well, career-wise. So that's good, it's nice to see opportunities are available for those adept enough to take advantage.

January 22, 2020
10:58 pm
Loonie
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Re: people who give up looking for work being excluded from stats. This has been going on forever. I've certainly heard about it my whole adult life. The story is always the same, namely a caveat that the stats aren't reliable because they don't include people who have given up.
I don't doubt there are people who may have given up, but I've been an adult for over 50 years. You'd think that by now they would have found a way to count those people rather than just speculating on how many there might be and saying the stats aren't reliable.
Methinks they never make the effort do this because the result would look bad for the sitting government.

January 23, 2020
5:36 am
Bill
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The article said nothing about the "stats aren't reliable", it just indicated two new recent trends that have pushed the number lower. I'm pretty sure the people who are professional statisticians have taken into account anything a layperson might think of.

Re the two trends, it does seem to me that young people today do have options older folks generally didn't. The affluence of today's parents allows young people who can't find work to go back to school or even give up trying to find work (or even travel for a while, heck they all seem to have been to Thailand or some other such faraway, exotic place), options I don't recall me and my peers having when we were young. You got through school as fast as you could and then found whatever work you could, my (typical) parents had no intention, or even capability, of supporting me once I finished school. I see much more intergenerational financial help these days, boomers have way more money than previous generation due to two income earners. It's also true that when typically it was only the man that worked fulltime outside the home, well those guys all quit once they made the finish line at age 65, often after decades of factory work. Baby boomers, two-income generation generally, shared the earning pressure so not as much relief just to get to retirement (plus lots more office workers, nicer work environments), happy to keep their toes in the work world to some extent to keep busy of bit and make more money, hence rise of part-time contract work, reduced work hours, etc. I realize these are generalizations and anecdotal, but it's my impression.

January 23, 2020
5:52 am
savemoresaveoften
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Loonie said
Re: people who give up looking for work being excluded from stats. This has been going on forever. I've certainly heard about it my whole adult life. The story is always the same, namely a caveat that the stats aren't reliable because they don't include people who have given up.
I don't doubt there are people who may have given up, but I've been an adult for over 50 years. You'd think that by now they would have found a way to count those people rather than just speculating on how many there might be and saying the stats aren't reliable.
Methinks they never make the effort do this because the result would look bad for the sitting government.  

you are right that the "new" unemployment rate will be quite a bit higher if those who are not seeking work are included in the number. In my mind, both CPI calculation and unemployment report should be updated... No government is willing to make that change for the obvious reason. Most economic and financial specialist these days dont look at the headline number for exactly the same reason. Unfortunately the general public still do cuz its much easier to point to just 1 number and judge and vote accordingly at election time.

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