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Bond Yields and Economic Downturns
May 10, 2019
9:41 pm
Vatox
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Again though, all that tells me, is that far too many people, including businesses, are living in denial.

More jobs with still low interest rates spells more consumption, more debt, more inflation, increasing wages and a bigger explosion when the trigger hits.

Nobody seems to want to let go and eventually there won’t be a choice anymore. The economies of the world can’t be maintained by credit. It simply can’t go forever unless the debts are forgiven and erased. I don’t think the creditors would be going along with that.

May 11, 2019
5:44 am
Loonie
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However you look at it, one month's job figures are not a trend, just a blip unless sustained.

May 11, 2019
6:07 am
Yatti420
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If it wasn't for Trump... Little Potato would be leading us threw his first real recession with poll #s reflective of such. Right now little potato is presiding over the worst election losses for Liberal Party.. Since Confederation.. He's poison and everyone knows it now lol!

May 11, 2019
7:04 am
Bill
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To me job numbers mean zero without looking only at private sector job creation. Make me PM, I can give everybody a gov't job and paycheque and have 100% employment.

Vatox, sorry but no-one on here (or anywhere) can do anything for you about the world's money woes, so "denial" might be a logical state of mind. Even austerity won't work, we're way past that as every one of us (including children, elderly, everybody else that doesn't or can't work) is hundreds of thousands in debt just re municipal, provincial and federal gov't debt alone, and NO LEVEL of austerity or extra taxes can squeeze that out of us in our lifetimes. In recent elections we've shunned politicians that talk about cuts, we now vote for those who put us deeper into debt, so the choices we freely make indicate that despite our words we don't care about the future folks (heck, even the future folks, the young voters, vote enthusiastically for the spenders!), just keep the party going. Vatox, might as well enjoy it now, too late when it's over!

May 11, 2019
7:49 am
Yatti420
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@Bill I think we're seeing the results of electing politicians who put us deeper in debt. Most aren't in power anymore in Canada.. Ontario is the most indebted subsovereign borrower for a reason. I thank god for Trump.. Ford.. alot.. everyday.. It looks like the ship has sailed for politicians who think they can fleece taxpayers again and again and deliver 0 results... Trump changed everything. Thank god!

I still believe if Hillary was in power.. We would A. Look like Venezuela as a people. B. Likely be engaged in WW3 by now. C. So much further along the doomed road the globalists would be all over the NWO currency.. SDRs anybody?

May 11, 2019
9:04 am
Vatox
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Thanks Bill, I don’t want anyone to fix the world’s money woes. I just want them to own it and to stop saying things are looking up.

May 11, 2019
9:53 am
Bill
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Yatti420, I see what you're saying, but when I listen to people around me every day I guess I see the Trumps and Fords as one-offs with not much chance of re-election. Maybe it's just where I live and mostly hang out (southern and central Ontario), but I hear those around me vilify those guys regularly. We'll see at re-election time.

Vatox, I agree there too, but they keeping telling us "consumer confidence", faith in money, banks, etc, are vital (on 9/11 didn't Bush tell people to resume shopping asap?) so maybe it's important to keep the positive vibe going or else the party will end NOW. We don't want that.

May 11, 2019
10:20 am
Top It Up
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Bill said
... I guess I see the Trumps and Fords as one-offs with not much chance of re-election.   

Thats what they said about Bush 43 and look what happened!

May 11, 2019
12:14 pm
Vatox
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Bill said
Vatox, I agree there too, but they keeping telling us "consumer confidence", faith in money, banks, etc, are vital (on 9/11 didn't Bush tell people to resume shopping asap?) so maybe it's important to keep the positive vibe going or else the party will end NOW. We don't want that.  

Those types of remarks are simply propaganda to keep the system going. They have to say those things in order to keep it flowing, most obviously their own paycheque and pension.

The party will end eventually and the longer it takes, the bigger the hit will be to daily life functioning.

May 23, 2019
8:52 pm
Bud
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Some more positive economic news past week wholesale trade, retail sales and another above expectations on top of strong employment #s

May 23, 2019
10:29 pm
Vatox
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hotmony said
Some more positive economic news past week wholesale trade, retail sales and another above expectations on top of strong employment #s  

And with steel and aluminum tariffs gone, that will help both Canada and the U.S.

May 24, 2019
6:29 am
Bud
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Vatox said

And with steel and aluminum tariffs gone, that will help both Canada and the U.S.  

Smaller potatoes

June 3, 2019
9:48 am
Vatox
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5 year bond yield is now at the 52 week low.

C70C106D-C8A4-4A62-9520-66352FB1BA50.png

June 3, 2019
12:28 pm
Vatox
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It just punched through that 52 week low.

30F231B8-283C-42CF-BC88-90746F4445B1.png

June 3, 2019
5:33 pm
Bud
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I was wrong to discount the 5yr bond inverted yield curve lull effect on gics but the economy in the u.s. is still strong n while the liberals are doing what they can to hold it back here we are going into elections in both countries trump is gonna keep pumpin for now. Weak europe china competitors good for canada in the long run makes us richer

June 4, 2019
7:40 am
Lumi
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This is only beginning

June 4, 2019
8:29 am
Bud
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There has never been a severe economic downturn without a severe downturn in asset prices. That would suggest an attempt to lock in asset prices and lock-out equality or 90% of the population ya we'll see

June 4, 2019
9:37 am
Vatox
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hotmony said
There has never been a severe economic downturn without a severe downturn in asset prices. That would suggest an attempt to lock in asset prices and lock-out equality or 90% of the population ya we'll see  

Recessions come unexpectedly with little or no indicators. Don’t look for asset values to drop as an indicator, the assets will drop when the downturn strikes. The thing to look for are dangers in the structure and the fearful triggers that light them on fire. Here’s an article.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/raulelizalde/2018/06/02/why-a-recession-in-2019-is-possible-despite-unemployment-at-the-lowest-levels-in-50-years/#7a03af9356ca

June 4, 2019
10:06 am
Bud
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A trudeau caused recession in canada maybe not in the u.s. where asset prices are more secure. Unsecured assets like the stock market wont have as profound an impact this time around fewer have a stake in it. I think banks will be able to strip away real estate equity from speculators more easily this time and pass it along to the next generation more affordably.

Bottom line: good economy still steady as she goes bond market head fake talk of a quarter point rate hike later this year

June 4, 2019
10:37 am
Bill
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What I often think about is when the next really bad financial crisis comes (and the experts tell us they'll come regularly) and if any fi's are in trouble it'll be very easy for the ones popular on here to be "unavailable", i.e. websites down, no-one answering the phones, etc. Then my neighbours who keep all their money in the local bricks and mortar branch will be laughing at guys like me. This whole sending-lots-of-my-money-to-people-far-away-who-may-not-even-have-a-retail-location-to-serve-their-online-operations is a relatively recent & growing phenomenon that also just happens to be a very convenient way to harvest deposits and then duck out if things go really bad. (I get that CDIC, etc kicks in, but frozen funds during a time of severe and general financial crisis will be a bit stressful, I'd imagine.) Other than that I'm feeling pretty good today.

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