Bank of Canada Rate Decision December 2021 | Page 7 | General financial discussion | Discussion forum

Kidd said
Mordko. From that same Ontario ministry of health web site. 45.6% of those in hospital are unvaccinated. These are the government's numbers NOT mine.

https://data.ontario.ca/en/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario/resource/274b819c-5d69-4539-a4db-f2950794138c

I have been tested twice, the last time being yesterday morning and... I AM ONE OF THE UNVAXXED.  

That means that an unvaxxed over 60 is 25 times more likely to end up in hospital than a partially or fully vaxxed over 60, given that:

1. The vast majority of people ending up in hospitals are over 60 and
2. 97% of over 60s are vaxxed

https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-vaccine-uptake-ontario-epi-summary.pdf?la=en

Note that fully vaccinated make up only 50% of those in the hospital and something like 25% of those in ICUs. So, a chances for someone not fully vaxxed to end up in ICU are 100 times higher.

Of course the boosters make this disbalance even more pronounced

Also to consider:

1. People under a certain age (in stages) got vaccinated later than those over 12 (or other stages). But more younger persons are now counted among the vaccine-eligible infected, and they are also less likely to have severe disease. (They were excluded from calculations before being vaccine-eligible.) This affects calculations.

2. Older and less healthy people got vaccinated first and are wearing off first. But they are still not dying as frequently as the unvaccinated.

I find it hard to imagine this will all be easy to calculate until we have more data - but it's coming in hard and fast now.

Now, THIS following section is NOT specific to the current time, but:

IN GENERAL, infectious diseases tend to get faster-spreading and less lethal as they continue to circulate. Diseases that kill off their victims quickly can't continue to spread in the absence of factors such as exceptional transmissibility or cultural practices such as Ebola's spread due to local traditions of touching the deceased at their funerals.

Similarly, infectious diseases that can spread before symptoms appear have an advantage. This is why SARS was so much easier to defeat (despite its high transmissibility) than COVID-19 varaints.
RetirEd

Some analysts are predicting three, possibly four rate hikes in 2022. If that is the upcoming trend it could cause havoc for those who have locked in interest rates for any length of time. I took out a 3-yr GIC in the Fall that looked good at the time but if analysts are correct the 2.5 % is not going to fare very well.

Bobbyjet11 said
Some analysts are predicting three, possibly four rate hikes in 2022. If that is the upcoming trend it could cause havoc for those who have locked in interest rates for any length of time. I took out a 3-yr GIC in the Fall that looked good at the time but if analysts are correct the 2.5 % is not going to fare very well.  

Rate hikes decrease inflation. Lower inflation will improve real return on your 3-yr GIC (or rather decrease your loss).

mordko said

Rate hikes decrease inflation. Lower inflation will improve real return on your 3-yr GIC (or rather decrease your loss).  

True but my point was: I may have jumped the gun in investing in a 3-year GIC when all indications were that interest rates were rising - I just didn't expect rates to rise this quickly (3 or 4 times alone this year is predicted). In a few months, chances are that some banks will offer a 3-year GIC rate higher than 2.5%.

Bobbyjet11 said

I may have jumped the gun in investing in a 3-year GIC when all indications were that interest rates were rising - I just didn't expect rates to rise this quickly (3 or 4 times alone this year is predicted). In a few months, chances are that some banks will offer a 3-year GIC rate higher than 2.5%.  

It depends how quickly 3-year rate rises above the rate you already locked in today.
Locking in a 1y rate and then renew at a higher 2y rate may not be better than ur 3y rate starting today.

mechone said
JP Morgan claims interest rates will be going up in Canada January 26 and there will be 5 increases this year taking us to 1.50 . I hope so  

Even with ON at 1.5% prob means 5y gets to 3.75-4%. That will make it equivalent to 2020 early covid.
To aggresive combat inflation, short rates will rise much faster than long rates, with yield curve inverted at the end. That will always be the case in my mind, whoever think "this time it is different" is more wishful thinking. Also with majority of mortgage usually 5 years and longer term borrowing, those rates will be kept artificually lower and longer.
Most retail dont borrow at the overnite rate, nor can you.

hwyc said
No joy today   

....except for real estate agents and those purchasing homes/real estate which will continue to inflate. Government is happy because it does not increase the cost of servicing the debt. Just postponing the inevitable...........