Bank of Canada Rate Decision December 2021 | Page 2 | General financial discussion | Discussion forum

Sure, Bill: Ontario Science Table: Update on COVID-19 Projections (December 16, 2021)

Slide #8 titled "Initial data from Denmark indicate that the percentage of cases
requiring hospital admission is not lower with Omicron".

Omicron has 0.81% hospitalization rate compared to 0.75% for other variants.

The situation in Denmark bears close wtching, but we are really not given enough data here. The case numbers for omicron are still small there and we aren't given any info about their vaccination status for any variant, the time from last vaccine has not been tracked, time lag since onset of illnes, how many vaccines, etc.

Thanks for presenting this, Norman. I probably wouldn't have serached for it.

EDIT: I made changes because I read further into the document. It's worth reading.

Here is a really important statement from the document Norman presented:

"Vaccine effectiveness against Omicron infection is stronger with 3 doses: 75% (Pfizer; UK)"
While I don't dispute the value of the vaccine, this is significantly less protection than we had from the second dose against earlier variants, which was in the 90s. Add to that the much increased transmissability of omicron and you have a recipe for an enormous problem. Elsewhere it suggest the effectiveness of the third dose is at about one month, so hurrying in December may not protect over the holidays.

For Denmark, 4,498,644 / 5,867,412 = 76.7% of total population is fully vaccinated.

For Canada, 76.26% of total population is fully vaccinated.

Denmark is a close match to Canada as far as full vaccination rates.

I agree it is quite early. Denmark detected its first Omicron case on November 22.

I think it is good keep both the South Africa experience and the Denmark experience in mind as the situation develops. People seem to be unaware of what is happening in Denmark.

I read disturbing reader comments on the Globe & Mail site suggesting that Omicron should just be allowed to sweep through because it is "mild" and would end up immunizing everyone.

Norman1 said
I read disturbing reader comments on the Globe & Mail site suggesting that Omicron should just be allowed to sweep through because it is "mild" and would end up immunizing everyone.  

It's not just a reader comment. A regularly appearing doctor (on CBC, I think) actually said on air that Omicron might have an upside in that it sweeps through and replaces all previous variants (i.e. the way the original CoVid has mostly disappeared.) He also said that it would then disappear after it passed. I consider that possibility quite ludicrous.

Loonie said
Here is a really important statement from the document Norman presented:

"Vaccine effectiveness against Omicron infection is stronger with 3 doses: 75% (Pfizer; UK)"
While I don't dispute the value of the vaccine, this is significantly less protection than we had from the second dose against earlier variants, which was in the 90s. Add to that the much increased transmissability of omicron and you have a recipe for an enormous problem. …

Fortunately, it is better than that. The 75% is the protection against Omicron infection. The three-dose protection against Omicron hospitalization would be higher.

Global News: Pfizer’s vaccine 70% effective against hospitalization from Omicron reported that two doses have 33% protection against infection and 70% protection against hospitalization.

Vatox said
Let’s stop talking about immunization and effectiveness against variants. Try to stay with financial issues.  

Good suggestion. I shall try not to stray too afar.

With the surge in Omicron and likely 5,6,7th... waves, do you believe that there will be a future national lockdown?

Regardless of lockdown, do you believe that the BoC can keep the interest rate at virtual zero and ignore all consequences?

I think that the BoC will hold interest rates at zero and just keep impoverishing future generations, so long as health authorities restrict economic activity; the premise being, 'We must do whatever it takes to fight and survive the fire now, before even considering the long-term effects of such efforts.'

I agree. Omicron's effect on the supply chain can neutralize the impact of interest rate hikes.

I'm pretty certain the central banks understand that higher interest rates can only lower demand for goods and services and not increase their supply.

Senator Diane Bellemare, an economist, was quoted in No one likes inflation, but raising interest rates won’t lower your grocery prices:

Raising interest rates may cool off demand, but today’s high prices are tightly tied to supply issues — goods not coming through to manufacturers or retailers in a predictable way, and global markets not able to react quickly enough to changing tastes of consumers.

Higher interest rates will reduce housing prices. The same monthly mortgage payments won't be able to service as much with a higher rate. But, higher rates won't reduce the price of things have been in short supply because of COVID.

If higher interest rates help to dampen real estate demand, I am all for it. I would even argue a healthy 20% price correction is necessary in the housing market. Some late buyers will take the pain, but then thats no different from buying the peak of a stock bubble.
Agree higher interest rates will have zero impact on food prices, esp at grocery stores.
Eat out is getting so expensive it is rising at the same pace as real estate prices, not the headline inflation.

I don't know if that news is really good.

1.7% hospitalization rate in South Africa in their current Omicron-driven fourth wave. That's better than the 19% they had in week #2 of their third wave driven by Delta. But, that's more than double Denmark's current 0.75% hospitalization rate from non-Omicron infections and 0.81% hospitalizations from Omicron infections.