Bank of Canada Rate | Page 9 | General financial discussion | Discussion forum

Bill: Isn't that what I said? That it was a good way to mess up one's heirs?

After the assets are sucked up by the debt, the heirs don't have to pay any leftover debt. So dying deep in debt will ensure the heirs get nothing, but don't have to pay anything.

Kinda feels like a Central Bank told the markets to change direction today ...

smayer97 said
Strong downtrend still intact... so far this is still just natural ebb and flow of market. Looks to resume down soon.  

Arrived here from your promotional link in the other thread....

Let's see: Massive inflationary push expected south of the border due to many things including Trump. And by the way he is trying to get rid of the debt ceiling, which is ominous. Note the latest big reversal in the Fed's comments which led to the biggest stock market drop on a rate announcement/comments day in years (DJI down over 1,100). Massive excess government spending here which is inflationary. US/Cdn exchange rate has tanked, so paying $ 1.45 or more on net consumer imports does the obvious to inflation, and not to get fooled by near term numbers because almost all imports are priced by past forward exchange contracts. BoC always has an eye on how its rate effects the real estate market, and already I see comments saying the latest rate decrease gets mortgage rates crossing a blue line and expect heating up soon or at least the spring market.

Where did you get the idea that " Strong downtrend is still intact ". Maybe you think if Trump tariff's hit the BoC will feel so sorry for people they will massively reduce rates again as a humanitarian gesture.

ICYMI , new feature on the charting functions of this site:
https://www.highinterestsavings.ca/forum/site-suggestions/adding-bank-of-canada-policy-rates-to-chart

Well, the CBs behaved exactly as expected today. BoC dropped rate 25 pts and no more, just as the market allowed. But the Fed kept the rate steady, because there was less than 25 pts room, so they could not drop it at this time.

This is a good example of how it is the market leading. The Fed has been talking repeatedly about rates dropping another 100-200 pts by the end of this year, but how did the markets respond? In like manner and followed suite? Nope. In fact, they went slightly up and flat short-term instead. And though not directly connected, even the long term markets shift up for a while. So who is leading whom?

Nevertheless, there is still a strong downtrend that has not yet been broken, so something to watch.

With the approaching trade war, what does everyone think about the BoC rates?

Will they rise, in a vain attempt to curb inflation? Or, will BoC feel that they impending inflation is just 'transitory', due to the tariffs, and try to keep rates low, to stimulate economic activity?

smayer97 said
The Fed has been talking repeatedly about rates dropping another 100-200 pts by the end of this year 

You must have been sleeping 24-7 past 3 months. Everyone at the Fed has been saying they will not drop rates as much as previously forecasted, as inflation is sticky and economy is growing fine....

Too many factors.

Various levels of government will be shovelling CADs at people and businesses. Investment draught. Potential unemployment. More tariffs and counter tariffs. Or sane minds and courts could prevail. CAD likely to drop, increasing the cost of imported goods. People might get scared andstop spending. Logistical chains will reshuffle.

This falls under “nobody has a clue” but my wild guess is that inflationary pressures will prevail.

savemoresaveoften said
You must have been sleeping 24-7 past 3 months. Everyone at the Fed has been saying they will not drop rates as much as previously forecasted, as inflation is sticky and economy is growing fine....  

Thanks for your condescension. Ad hominems... the tool of the intelligent.

smayer97 said
BTW, Jan 16, "...Fed governor Waller out in front of a camera on CNBC [told] us that "three or four cuts could be possible this year,..."

No, he did not. He said that there could be more rate cuts if inflation continues to ease as he believes. He emphasizes the "if" part of what he said in the CNBC video at Fed Governor Waller sees potential for multiple interest rate cuts in 2025.

Furthermore, he is not the governor of the Fed and doesn't speak for the Fed. Each Fed governor does not speak for Fed just as each Canadian MP does not speak for the Government of Canada.

Your reporting of what he said is both inaccurate and misleading.