Log In
Register
Home
Topic RSS
Facebook
Twitter
Email this3:41 pm
September 29, 2017
Offline
There is no option at this point. 50 pts it will be.
3:44 pm
September 29, 2017
Offline
Also looking more like another 50 pt drop at end of Jan '25.
4:34 pm
April 27, 2017
Offline
If that were a fact, it would be worth A LOT of money. For the first time you are telling us something that is action. You should act on it. 3-months GOC bonds yield 3.2%. You’ll make a killing by buying a few million $s worth of them.
6:02 pm
September 29, 2017
Offline
May I borrow your millions?
6:08 pm
April 27, 2017
Offline
smayer97 said
May I borrow your millions?
No, use yours. With predictive powers like this should be lots of them.
5:29 am
March 30, 2017
Offline
smayer97 said
Bottom line is that the market reacts first, whatever the decision-making process, guessing, not guessing, reading tea-leaves, etc... what is most relevant is that you can see the market always reacts first. And the BoC follows... the charts show this time and time again...Whatever is captured in the news is just an attempt to try to explain things... but after the fact. But following the news over the decades shows they most often have no clue, and cannot use that as a basis to understand the markets.
At the end of the day, what matters is what is actually transacted. Bid/Ask mean nothing until the actual price is struck. That is the reality. That is what the charts show. And they show the markets leading.
Given economic data are being released almost daily, of course the market will react first. BoC has scheduled meetings and thats when they will officially announce rate change etc (except during extreme stressed environment that we have witnessed). But BoC also uses their various speeches at various venues to drop hints to the market, and the market DEFINTELY react to those.
So sorry BoC leads, and not market.
If market is indeed the one deciding a 50bps move tomorrow, it should always be priced in at 100% certainty, for any time of move / non move, and the amount.
No need to read charts....
5:48 am
February 7, 2019
Offline
savemoresaveoften said
Given economic data are being released almost daily, of course the market will react first. BoC has scheduled meetings and thats when they will officially announce rate change etc (except during extreme stressed environment that we have witnessed). But BoC also uses their various speeches at various venues to drop hints to the market, and the market DEFINTELY react to those.
So sorry BoC leads, and not market.
If market is indeed the one deciding a 50bps move tomorrow, it should always be priced in at 100% certainty, for any time of move / non move, and the amount.
No need to read charts....
The TSX will definitely react tomorrow morning if the BoC does anything other than -0.5%.
| CGO |
6:08 am
March 30, 2017
Offline
cgouimet said
The TSX will definitely react tomorrow morning if the BoC does anything other than -0.5%.
With the threat of tariff potentially throwing the Canadian economy into haywire, balancing against a weak CAD$ which is inflationary, I believe BoC will err on protecting the economy via 50bps cut. Macklem has demonstrated he is a more dovish than hawkish guy. But once he cuts 50 tmw , he will go baby steps in 2025, IF cuts are still needed.
10:32 am
September 29, 2017
Offline
savemoresaveoften said
Given economic data are being released almost daily, of course the market will react first. BoC has scheduled meetings and thats when they will officially announce rate change etc (except during extreme stressed environment that we have witnessed). But BoC also uses their various speeches at various venues to drop hints to the market, and the market DEFINTELY react to those.
So sorry BoC leads, and not market....
You keep missing the point. If you follow the language of the BoC, you will notice a very clear pattern... their news lags what the market has already priced in. Their announcements simply echo that... and yes the market reacts at times... not always in agreement. It is all in the timing...
10:36 am
September 29, 2017
Offline
cgouimet said
The TSX will definitely react tomorrow morning if the BoC does anything other than -0.5%.
50 pts is coming.
12:55 pm
February 7, 2019
Offline
smayer97 said
50 pts is coming.
This will obviously be good for borrowers but not so much for savers.
And, this will very likely mean the Cdn $ goes down below $0.70US. Great for exports. Bad for imports. People will get to appreciate their food, apparel, furniture, appliance, car, truck and winter vacation prices increasing further.
| CGO |
1:09 pm
March 30, 2017
Offline
smayer97 said
savemoresaveoften said
Given economic data are being released almost daily, of course the market will react first. BoC has scheduled meetings and that's when they will officially announce rate change etc (except during extreme stressed environment that we have witnessed). But BoC also uses their various speeches at various venues to drop hints to the market, and the market DEFINITELY react to those.
So sorry BoC leads, and not market....You keep missing the point. If you follow the language of the BoC, you will notice a very clear pattern... their news lags what the market has already priced in. Their announcements simply echo that... and yes the market reacts at times... not always in agreement. It is all in the timing...
Market price in what they THINK the CB will do. And most of the time what the CB will do is INDEED very predictable as its obvious, plus half the time CB will TELL you in advance what they plan to do. There is zero proof at all in what you call timing that market dictates the CB's rate move at all.
6:50 am
February 7, 2019
Offline
So, it is ... 3.75% -> 3.25% ...
Really good news for borrowers, not so much for savers.
The CA$ may very well go down further. Really good news for exporters, not so much for importers and inflation.
| CGO |
7:14 am
November 18, 2017
Offline
cgouimet:
People will get to appreciate their food, apparel, furniture, appliance, car, truck and winter vacation prices increasing further.
Well, there's always the fragmented-by-province GST/HST tax cut to meet it...
RetirEd
7:26 am
February 7, 2019
Offline
RetirEd said
cgouimet:People will get to appreciate their food, apparel, furniture, appliance, car, truck and winter vacation prices increasing further.
Well, there's always the fragmented-by-province GST/HST tax cut to meet it...
Short-term G/HST cuts ...
Also ... Governments always get blamed for ever for cost increases and income stagnations/reductions but their tax reductions are forgotten the day after their effective date.
Benefits from people/governments we like are appreciated and remembered for ever, pocketed unaknowleged from those we don't like.
My platitudes for the day ...
| CGO |
8:43 am
April 27, 2017
Offline
cgouimet said
So, it is ... 3.75% -> 3.25% ...Really good news for borrowers, not so much for savers.
The CA$ may very well go down further. Really good news for exporters, not so much for importers and inflation.
Reaction so far is the exact opposite. Dollar is up, bond yields are up.
It’s because the 0.5% drop was already priced in but markets are reacting to unexpectedly hawkish forward guidance from the bank.
HISA rates will fall by GIC rates might even go the other way.
9:21 am
October 27, 2013
Offline
ISA rates at brokerages will start to drop as early as today, likely RBC and TD who often lead the way. Cash ETF yields will drop too within the week, and 1 year GIC yields will start down fairly soon thereafter too. I agree multi-year GIC yields, especially 3-5 year terms could go the other way.
HISA rates offered in the chart here may, or may not, change much depending on how much liquid deposits the FIs need. I think anything over 3% is doomed to fall to under 3% in fairly short order.
None of this should be surprising. Back in April 2024, BoC suggested neutral policy interest rates would likely land in the 2.25-3.25% range longer term. We are now at the top end of that neutral range. The more unpredictable outcome is how quickly, or not.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/04/staff-analytical-note-2024-9/
9:50 am
March 30, 2017
Offline
mordko said
Reaction so far is the exact opposite. Dollar is up, bond yields are up.
It’s because the 0.5% drop was already priced in but markets are reacting to unexpectedly hawkish forward guidance from the bank.
HISA rates will fall by GIC rates might even go the other way.
This is the exact proof and happens all the time that CB "prep" the market for their next /future rate decision, and market reacts to that. Will see how Smayer97 spin it and still argue market leads the CBs...
12:34 pm
October 27, 2013
Offline
The market is simply guessing like we all do leading up to a rate decision. I am a bit disappointed the BoC didn't just do 25bp just to shake the sheets somewhat.
Don't waste time on some obscure conspiracy theory.
9:24 pm
September 29, 2017
Offline
savemoresaveoften said
This is the exact proof and happens all the time that CB "prep" the market for their next /future rate decision, and market reacts to that. Will see how Smayer97 spin it and still argue market leads the CBs...
This looks more like profit taking, after the BoC moved in the direction of the market. And you don't need the BoC to prep the market... it is already quite clear that the near future is hawkish... and as I indicated before, the market looks poised for another 50 pt drop by end of Jan. or so. And not because of any recent announcements either. I'm not the only one that sees this.
Please write your comments in the forum.