4% 1yr GIC - should I lock in or wait some more? | Page 6 | EQ Bank | Discussion forum

Alexandre said

savemoresaveoften said
Zero chance of 1y reaching 5% by august.

I bookmarked this forum topic and put reminder in my calendar for August 31st to check 1 year GIC rates. Will it be "never say zero chance?" Will see.  

It is August 31, 2022 and indeed, 1 year GIC haven't reached 5%. The best they were is 4.6%. I admit, I was too optimistic.

My new expectation: before end of 2022 there will appear 1 year GIC, registered or not, with 5.0% rate or more. Even if briefly. If I am wrong again, you'll see me here on December 31, 2022 admitting it.

Alexandre said

It is August 31, 2022 and indeed, 1 year GIC haven't reached 5%. The best they were is 4.6%. I admit, I was too optimistic.

My new expectation: before end of 2022 there will appear 1 year GIC, registered or not, with 5.0% rate or more. Even if briefly. If I am wrong again, you'll see me here on December 31, 2022 admitting it.  

I wish I was wrong as I can use some 1y at 5% too.

My new prediction:
We won’t see any possible 5% print in 1y for more than 2-3 FIs unless the BoC over nite rate is north of 4%, so even 4% won’t trigger a 5% 1y GIC print in bulk. Will need at least 4.25% for any FIs to consider 5% 1y is necessary to bring in capital. Obviously if a FI is in distress for whatever reason, similar to Home Bank few years ago, that’s a different story.

We will continue to see FIs bumping their HISA rate to close the gap to the 1y GIC rate for the rest of the year.

Alexandre said

I was not wrong this time.

Even 4.8% is not bad, and I expect it'll get even better before the end of 2022.  

will be interesting if Tang get to 5% too. People Trust being a smaller player with a wider credit spread, I can see PT paying higher. But Tang's rate is a bit head scratching as to their intention for sure. As a BNS shareholder, they better have a good reason lol